Meeting of the Parliament [Draft]

Meeting date: Wednesday, December 20, 2023

Official Report 1026KB pdf

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A9 Dualling

The next item of business is a statement by Màiri McAllan on the A9 dualling programme. The cabinet secretary will take questions at the end of her statement, hence there should be no interventions or interruptions.

14:52  

Following the Deputy First Minister’s budget statement yesterday, I am pleased to have the chance to provide more detail on completing the dualling of the A9 between Perth and Inverness. I know that this statement is keenly anticipated, especially by those who are concerned to see safety improvements developed on the A9 and by the many Scottish communities and businesses for whom the A9 is essential. I am acutely aware of the strength of feeling on the issue.

The programme has faced challenges, and I acknowledge that it has not progressed at the pace that we would have liked. There have, of course, been particular challenges, with sky-high inflation causing slippage in major capital projects. However, the A9 is the backbone of Scotland. It must be safe, reliable and resilient, and that is what the Government will deliver.

When I assumed responsibility for transport in Cabinet in June, my primary objectives for the A9 project were threefold. The first was to oversee amendments to Transport Scotland’s approach to procurement of its design and build contracts in order to improve prospects and avoid a repeat of last year’s experiences with the section between Tomatin and Moy. The second was to finalise a delivery plan for dualling the remaining sections of the programme that foregrounded certainty of delivery but carefully balanced that against considerations of market capacity, affordability and the need to minimise disruption on the network. Finally, in the meantime, the objective was to progress interim safety interventions short of, and in anticipation of, dualling. I will address each of those issues.

Although my remarks will focus principally on the remainder of the programme, I will first say a word on the Tomatin to Moy section. Following the outcome of the first procurement for that section, Transport Scotland undertook extensive market consultation with the construction industry to gather views on how its major road projects could generate improved tender competition. As a result of that engagement, the new engineering contract, with amendments, was adopted for use for a new procurement for the Tomatin to Moy section.

The change in contracting approach was welcomed by the Civil Engineering Contractors Association. The new engineering contract is preferred by the industry and is widely used across the United Kingdom, with the terms and conditions that have been adopted by Transport Scotland now offering a more balanced approach to the sharing of risk between Scottish ministers and those to whom we provide contracts.

I confirm that, on 11 December this year, invitations to participate in dialogue were issued to three short-listed contractors, and it is expected that the contract will be awarded in early summer 2024, with the completed dualling expected to be operational by the end of 2027.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Government has been determinedly considering procurement options for dualling the remaining eight sections. Options that have been considered include procuring all projects using either a design and build contract or a mutual investment model, which is used by the Welsh Government, or using public-private partnership contracts. Indeed, we considered a hybrid of both approaches.

We have also considered carefully how works will be sequenced to provide an efficient overall programme that aligns with the market’s capacity to deliver, that minimises disruption to road users and that is achievable within the wider financial constraints. As the Deputy First Minister outlined yesterday, the UK, having not inflation proofed its capital budget, has left us with a nearly 10 per cent real-terms cut in our capital funding between 2023-24 and 2027-28.

This has been a complex exercise, but the Government has concluded that a hybrid approach is the best way to complete the A9 dualling programme. I therefore confirm that the Government will progress the three remaining A9 dualling projects at the southern end of the route via three capital-funded design and build contracts. We then anticipate progressing the five remaining projects in the north and central stretches via two resource-funded MIM contracts. That is subject to on-going due diligence and further decision making in late 2025, and it will be based on an updated assessment of expected market conditions.

I confirm that, in progressing the delivery plan, work will begin immediately on preparations for the procurement for the next design and build contract, which will be for the Tay crossing to Ballinluig project, with the contract notice planned for publication in spring 2024 and the award anticipated to be made in summer 2025.

In addition, procurement for the Pitlochry to Killiecrankie project and, subject to completion of statutory processes, the Pass of Birnam to Tay crossing project will commence in summer 2025 and summer 2027, respectively.

Subject to decision making in late 2025, procurement for the two remaining northern projects, under a single MIM contract, could commence in winter 2026-27, with procurement for the second MIM contract comprising the remaining three central projects commencing in 2028-29.

The hybrid approach will create a rolling programme of construction that will lead to the progressive opening of the dualled sections. Under the new plan, we anticipate that, by the end of 2030, nearly 50 per cent of the A9 will be open as dual carriageway, rising to 85 per cent by the end of 2033 and, eventually, to 100 per cent by the end of 2035. That means that we will see significant benefits from the dualling programme years ahead of the backstop in 2035. We have published all the details of the programme on the Transport Scotland website today.

As part of our work, we have prepared updated scheme cost estimates for each project. The total cost of the programme is now estimated to be £3.7 billion at April 2023 prices. When adjusted for inflation, that is equivalent to £2.45 billion at April 2008 prices, which members will note is well within the original cost estimate of £3 billion at 2008 prices.

Having talked about cost, I now want to talk about safety. The improved safety that is expected from dualling is crucial. I take this opportunity to offer my heartfelt sympathies and my condolences to anyone who has lost a loved one or, indeed, been injured in collisions on the A9.

Dualling will reduce driver stress and accidents. Likewise, the severity of accidents and journey times for emergency vehicles will be reduced. Dualling offers resilience, limiting the need for lengthy diversions. At the same time, the A9 is critical to the movements of freight and of business and leisure travellers. Dualling improves reliability and average journey times by 20 per cent. That is transformative for a route that serves 35 per cent of our land mass and carries around 10 per cent of Scotland’s gross domestic product in terms of cargo.

Investment in the route will help to grow the economy, but the impact will be wider than the economic aspect. The A9 is the backbone that connects central and highland Scotland and, for the 10,000 people who live along it, it is often the only connection to vital services. Investment will also maximise the range of opportunities for contractors and their long supply chains. The programme will ensure that the link between two of Scotland’s great cities is safe and fit for purpose for everyone who needs to use it now and in the future.

Comprehensive stakeholder engagement on the delivery plan will begin early in the new year, building on the extensive engagement to date. As a first step, I will write to interested MSPs today to invite them to a briefing in the Parliament. Regular engagement will continue as the programme progresses, including, of course, with local communities on individual projects.

In the meantime, anyone with an interest in the A9 can sign up for updates at www.a9dualling.scot, prior to the full launch of a new A9 dualling website early in the new year. We will advertise engagement opportunities here and through traditional and social media.

Decisions to complete the statutory process are now complete for more than 92 per cent of the programme. We will complete the statutory process for the three outstanding schemes with ministerial consent next year and will acquire the necessary land to support the procurement timetable.

The only project not to have started that process is the Pass of Birnam to Tay crossing. I thank the local community for their valuable input through the co-creative process and, today, I can announce that the preferred route for that section is confirmed and that it includes a number of the elements of the community’s preferred options, including a roundabout at Dunkeld and the junction layouts at the Hermitage and Dalguise. Further details of the preferred route, such as the programme, are available on Transport Scotland’s website, and local communities and road users will have the opportunity to comment on the plans at public exhibitions in January.

I would like to say a word on safety in the time that I have left to speak. Having provided an update on Tomatin to Moy and the remainder of the programme, I want to close with the issue of safety because, since 2007, the Government has invested £300 million in the maintenance and safety of the A9 and a further £3.6 million on average speed cameras.

Following the tragic loss of life that has occurred on the route, particularly in 2022, we have been investing an additional £5 million, approximately, and I am pleased to confirm that those safety measures are progressing at pace, with a number of elements completed. Those include enhancements to signage and road markings, with particular emphasis at junctions and those transitions between dual and single carriageway sections. As is the case with the rest of the trunk road network, the safety performance of the A9 will continue to be regularly reviewed.

Time is against me, so I will conclude. Today, this Government restates its commitment to dualling the A9 between Perth and Inverness, which we are doing with a concrete plan. The approach that I have set out means that the Highlands can have confidence that the considerable benefits of the A9 dualling programme will be delivered and in full. Now that we have reached that point, there will be no let up. When construction starts on Tomatin to Moy next year, under this delivery programme, it will roll continually until the route between Perth and Inverness is fully dualled.

The cabinet secretary will now take questions on the issues that were raised in her statement. I intend to allow around 20 minutes, after which time we will move to the next item of business. It would be helpful if members who wish to ask a question would press their request-to-speak button.

I thank the cabinet secretary for advance sight of her statement, although we have been waiting for the update since February and here we are, on the second-last sitting day of the year. However, our wait here is as nothing to the wait of the people of Perth and Kinross and the Highlands and Islands, who have been waiting for years to see this vital project completed, with an SNP Government in power that has delivered a mere 11 miles of dual carriageway in 16 years.

Throughout that period, too many lives have needlessly been lost, and more will die as a result of the delays that we have heard about today. At best, we will wait another 12 years for the project to be completed, and that is the most optimistic outcome that we can hope for.

The cabinet secretary did her best to deflect criticism on to the UK Government, but I would gently remind her that, if the SNP had kept its promise to complete the dualling by 2025, the challenges that she identified with inflation and her Government’s capital budget would not have been an issue.

Today, we were expecting to hear that a contract had been placed for the Tomatin to Moy section. Even that has not been delivered. Instead, the best that we have is an expectation that there will be a contract award in summer next year. One year on from where we were at the start of this year, we are precisely no further forward.

I will therefore ask the cabinet secretary three things. First, what guarantees can she give us that the contract award for the Tomatin to Moy section will, in fact, now be done, and on the timescale that she has outlined, given all the slippage in timescales that we have seen in the past? Secondly, in relation to the remaining sections, what confidence can we have that the timescales set out today are, in fact, deliverable, even supposing that the funding can be found? Thirdly, how confident is the cabinet secretary that there is appropriate civil engineering contracting capacity to carry out those works, and what discussions has she held with industry to determine its willingness to tender for the contracts that are being proposed?

I begin by acknowledging Murdo Fraser’s point about there having been a delay in my update. I had hoped to give this update some weeks ago, and I am always seeking to expedite progress in this regard. Unfortunately, the A9 dualling project is a complex project—indeed, it is 11 complex projects—but, as of today, it is a complex project with a comprehensive delivery plan. I hope that even Murdo Fraser can welcome that.

The critical theme in all the points that Murdo Fraser raised is about certainty regarding both the Tomatin to Moy section and the remainder of the programme. The plan that we have set out today has sought to foreground certainty of delivery. However, as I said in my statement, we have carefully balanced that with the other factors that we must consider: the need to minimise disruption, market capacity and, of course, affordability.

With all of that taken into account, the plan that we have published today provides the greatest certainty that I am able to provide, bearing in mind that this is a large project with significant complexities and interdependencies, all of which are susceptible to a variety of external factors, not least the financial volatility that we have become so accustomed to under Murdo Fraser’s Government.

The SNP first committed to dual the A9 back in 2007. Today, 16 years on and excuse after excuse after excuse later, the cabinet secretary expects us to be happy that, by 2030—23 years after the 2007 commitment—it will have completed less than 50 per cent of the project.

With a new date of 2035 for completion of the dualling between Perth and Inverness, some 28 years after the initial promise, one has to wonder how on earth the cabinet secretary can say with a straight face that the Highlands can have confidence that the A9 dualling programme will be delivered in full. Does the cabinet secretary have the confidence that this Government is even capable of delivering infrastructure projects of that scale?

This Government has a proud history of delivering major projects. [Interruption.] There is a plethora of major projects, and I have absolute confidence—but, at the same time, I am not complacent. That is why we have spent the time. As I set out, since I have had responsibility for this, I have been determined to spend time finding all the ways possible to increase certainty in this project. That has involved updating our business case and spending considerable time—and Transport Scotland spending considerable time—engaging with the industry to update our approach to contracting under design and build contracts. That has all brought together this new plan, which, for the first time, anticipates using a hybrid model of funding options that are available.

That is an example of the Government using every tool at its disposal and working exceptionally hard to give the Highlands and everyone who, I accept, has been waiting too long confidence that the plan will be completed on a rolling basis of construction—50 per cent completed by 2030, 85 per cent by 2033 and 100 per cent dualling by the end of 2035.

I welcome the reaffirmation of the Government’s commitment to dual the A9, which builds on the successful completion of a range of capital projects—including the Queensferry crossing, the M74 completion, the M8 completion, the Aberdeen western peripheral route completion, the Airdrie to Bathgate railway and the Borders railway—and the cabinet secretary’s acceptance of a number of the proposals that my constituents in the Dunkeld and Birnam area made regarding the design of the route at that particularly challenging site. Does the cabinet secretary agree to herself, the Minister for Transport and their officials engaging further with community groups in Dunkeld and Birnam about the design issues and, crucially, on short-term improvements that could be made to road safety in advance of the dualling works that are being undertaken?

I thank Mr Swinney for eloquently reeling off the plethora of major projects that the Government can be proud of having delivered.

On the point about his locality, I thank the Birnam to Ballinluig A9 community group for its work with us in a co-creative process, which has helped to broaden our vision for the A9 dualling project through that important route. The Minister for Transport and I truly value the input that the group has made to the process.

Building on the positive relationship that has been established, I reassure Mr Swinney that we will continue to engage with him and his local community as we continue our development of that section of the A9, which is taking a big step forward today. Indeed, I advise members that Transport Scotland officials are meeting the Birnam to Ballinluig A9 community group later this afternoon to discuss the preferred route option. As I mentioned in my statement, we will hold public exhibitions for the community in January.

Time and again, SNP ministers came to the chamber, appeared in front of committees or pledged in public that the A9 would be dualled in full between Inverness and Perth by the promised 2025 date. That was despite all evidence being to the contrary. We now know that, since 2018, they were not being honest. The Scottish Government knew, because officials told it, that the 2025 date was unachievable. However, it was not until last year—nearly five years later—that SNP ministers finally came clean.

How can local businesses, people who live along the route of the A9 and those who have lost loved ones on the road trust the Government to finally deliver on those new, even more vague promises when they have been lied to so many times before?

Presiding Officer, I am not sure that that was parliamentary language, but that is entirely your decision to adjudicate on.

Cabinet secretary, please resume your seat. I heard what the member said and I noted carefully the way in which he phrased it. It is, of course, absolutely unacceptable to refer to another member as having lied or been untruthful, but I felt that the way in which it was phrased did not quite fall within that bracket. Indeed, it would be a matter for me, in the chair.

As I said, it is for you to adjudicate on.

The member’s question centred on the inquiry that the Citizen Participation and Public Petitions Committee is undertaking, which is a retrospective look at the progress of the programme to date. My statement is concerned with looking forward, but I have agreed to appear in front of the committee to assist it in its important inquiry. Indeed, some of the documents that Mr Halcro Johnston referred to are part of the very many that the Scottish Government has handed over to the inquiry.

I think that Mr Halcro Johnston will find that he will have to correct the record at some point in the future. The papers make it entirely clear, and I will certainly reiterate at committee, that Transport Scotland did not know for certain until late 2022 that the 2025 date was not deliverable. A number of the papers that Mr Halcro Johnston is speaking to talked, for example, about moving only to a MIM and the deliverability of that by 2025; they did not mention capital design and build.

As I said, I am happy to appear in front of the committee to discuss those matters, giving a retrospective account. Today, I am looking forward with the optimum delivery plan.

Will the cabinet secretary say a bit more about the mutual investment model that she referred to in her statement? What does it entail and what are its advantages?

Yes, I am happy to say more about it. As I said in my statement, the mutual investment model is one that has been developed and used by the Welsh Government. It is a form of public-private partnership that is similar in many respects to the non-profit-distributing contract, which was previously used in a number of major road projects, including some of those that Mr Swinney narrated.

The principal advantages that such a contract offers are that it provides additionality of investment through the use of private finance to deliver infrastructure projects and reduces the level of annual expenditure by spreading payments over a longer period. However, it represents a significant long-term financial commitment and requires a detailed consideration of market conditions, especially inflation and the cost of borrowing. That is why, in a prudent manner, we have built-in decision-making points in the programme, whereby we will consider how appropriate it is to move to a MIM, given the prevailing market conditions at the time.

The announcement that one section will be dualled in the next four years is not going to pacify my constituents’ anger about the lack of progress. The Government knew that it was not going to meet its 2025 promise, yet it tried to hide that.

Will the cabinet secretary give details of the key differences between the design and build model and the mutual investment model and say where the risk for each lies? Given the Government’s deception in the past, will she tell my constituents how they can realistically gauge progress towards completion for themselves?

I hope that the member was listening to my response to Jamie Halcro Johnston, when I made it absolutely clear that it was not until 2022 that Transport Scotland knew for sure that 2025 was not achievable. The Scottish ministers updated the Parliament shortly thereafter.

In referring to one section being completed in the coming years, Rhoda Grant is missing the point that I have been stressing, which is that, although this is a 12-year programme, it is one of rolling construction. Once spades are in the ground for the Tomatin to Moy section next summer, we will see rolling construction right through to 2035. As I said, following that progressive opening, there will be dualling of 50 per cent by the end of 2030, 85 per cent by 2033 and 100 per cent by the end of 2035, so that people—I accept that they rely fundamentally on the route—can enjoy the safety, economic and other benefits that come from dualling in advance of the entire programme’s completion.

On the way to the chamber this afternoon, and quite by chance, I bumped into an Invernessian who reminded me that he had lost friends on the A9. That was a salutary reminder of the force behind the campaign.

In any campaign, it is wise to accept victory where it occurs and to be magnanimous. It is said that to be prepared is half the victory, and I think that the cabinet secretary will agree that we are not yet fully prepared. Will she acknowledge that many people, including me, will continue to remain sceptical until they see the diggers on the road, and that the statement today, although encouraging, involves a huge amount of work ahead? There must be no more slippage, no more delays and no more broken promises.

I thank Fergus Ewing for his question and for his determined campaigning on the matter since I have been in post and long before that. He mentioned in his opening remarks the loss of life, which is the principal issue that is at the forefront of the matter. Over the summer, I attended with him an event that was organised by The Press and Journal and the Inverness Courier, where we were joined by family members of the bereaved. I assure him and the chamber that that experience will never leave me and has been with me in all the work that we have been seeking to do as a team ever since.

I would not expect Fergus Ewing to be anything other than sceptical—helpfully sceptical, I hope—but I assure him, as I have other members, that what we have tried to produce today is the greatest possible certainty in a fairly uncertain world. I assure him that, although I cannot prevent issues from arising, where they arise, the Government will seek to overcome them as quickly as possible.

Yesterday, we heard of another serious crash on the A9 near Invergordon, and my thoughts are with those who were taken to Aberdeen royal infirmary after the collision. That highlights the known dangers of the A9 in its current state.

There was news last week that, in 2018, it was thought that the target to dual the A9 between Inverness and Perth by 2025 was unachievable, but ministers did not change course to address that, so 77 miles of the A9 are still not dualled. The new timeline will mean years of delay from the original commitment, and I must say that I am surprised that there was no apology for that anywhere in the cabinet secretary’s statement. What guarantees will the Scottish Government provide that its new dates are realistic and that we will see completion by the new date?

I echo to Beatrice Wishart what I said to Fergus Ewing and a number of others—I reassure her, in the first instance, that the certainty of delivery that she and others seek has driven the development of the plan. Although it would be a little foolish to suggest that, in a project of this scale and complexity, issues will not arise—of course they will—I give her the same commitment as I gave Fergus Ewing and others, which is that, where issues arise, the Government will seek to address them as quickly as possible.

Beatrice Wishart is absolutely right to acknowledge the accident that occurred near Tomich this week. My sympathies and those of all my colleagues are with those who were involved. We are awaiting further details. I thank the emergency services who were so promptly on the scene. That relates to another part of Beatrice Wishart’s question, which is about dualling being principally a safety issue. I have it at the forefront of my mind that dualling will reduce driver stress and frustration and will reduce the severity of accidents, because head-on collisions are the most difficult and fatal. In addition, emergency vehicles’ access will be quicker not just when there are accidents on the road but for the 10,000 people who live along the route.

I declare an interest in that I spend about 10 hours every week on the A9. The cabinet secretary may recall that, just a matter of weeks ago, the Tories said that dualling the A9 would take a century, so I have never been more thankful that she is in charge, with an updated deadline of 2035, and not them. I also pay tribute to the highlanders who have waited patiently for the A9 to be dualled, and to their spokespeople—not least the Inverness Courier, which is represented here today.

Certainty matters and, to restore trust, we have to keep communities regularly informed so that there are no surprises. How do we do that so that they can trust the Government’s pronouncements and trust that progress is genuinely being made?

I understand entirely the sentiments that Kate Forbes expresses. My clear objective today is to set out that this is a new optimal delivery plan and that it is concrete. The approach that we have set out means that people in the Highlands and those who travel there can have confidence that we will realise as efficiently as we can all the considerable benefits of A9 dualling that we know exist.

I repeat that now that we have reached this point, there will be no let-up. Under the plan and the rolling delivery programme, there will be continual work and construction until the route is finished. Kate Forbes is right to point out that recent so-called research by the Conservative Party pointed to the work potentially taking 111 years. I hope that even it will welcome the fact that the work will take about a tenth of that time.

In the dark days of winter, we now get the promised autumn statement on the A9—I suppose that it is better late than never, considering the time that we have been waiting for this project. Given the Government’s record, how can Scots believe that it can deliver only a miserable seven miles a year of dualling to complete the project by 2035? Given the Government’s failure to deliver a long-standing promise, surely we should expect more.

I again point out to Edward Mountain the irony that, while his party was compiling what it calls research—and what I would call a little ridiculous—and press releases, the Government was, thankfully, taking the issue seriously and working hard to overcome the barriers that we needed to in order to present the comprehensive plan today. That includes, as I said, looking closely at and updating our business case and working with industry to improve how we procure design and build contracts. It also includes building a plan that, as I said, foregrounds certainty of delivery while considering market capacity and affordability and ensuring that there will not be unmanageable disruption on the route.

The cabinet secretary rightly highlighted safety on the A9 as the overriding priority. The Green group is behind the appropriate action that is needed to cut casualties and tragedies on the road. However, given that the A9 programme will not be completed until the mid-2030s, what other options have been reviewed to improve safety on the A9 while staying on track to meet our legally binding climate targets?

I am grateful to Mark Ruskell for highlighting that, as far as the Government is concerned, the principal driver of the work is improving safety. As I mentioned in my statement, since 2007, the Government has invested £300 million in the safety and maintenance of the A9 and a further £3.6 million in average-speed cameras. I think that everybody would accept that those measures have made a difference, but they do not go as far as dualling will.

Following the marked increase in 2022 in the number of accidents, we responded with an additional £5 million for road safety measures, including enhancements to signing and road markings with an emphasis on junctions and the transition between dual and single carriageway, which we know can be difficult. The introduction of average-speed cameras, the work of Police Scotland, targeted education campaigns and the on-going management and maintenance of the route have helped to reduce the number of accidents and casualties from the the long-term trend that we were seeing, with the exception of 2022. That remains at the foreground of our thinking.

That concludes the statement. I apologise to the few members whom I was unable to call.