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Chamber and committees

Education, Lifelong Learning and Culture Committee, 10 Dec 2008

Meeting date: Wednesday, December 10, 2008


Contents


Teacher Employment Working Group Report

The Convener:

I reconvene the committee. We now turn to the second item on our agenda, which is consideration of the report of the teacher employment working group.

I welcome Joe Di Paola, who is head of the employers organisation at the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities and chair of the teacher employment working group. I thank him for joining us today and for his written submission. I understand that he does not want to make an opening statement, so we will move straight to questions.

Bill Kidd:

I want to ask about information gathering and how it can be used at local authority level. The working group's first recommendation is that there should be

"greater reconciliation between local workforce decision making and the national workforce planning process",

although it recognises that the medium-term nature of planning will be challenging. For example, advice given in December for university intake will be used for targets published in February, with students taking their places in October on a four-year course. How much can be known about local authority employment requirements over such timescales, and to what degree can local authority employment plans realistically feed into the teacher workforce planning process?

Do you want me to break that question down?

Joe Di Paola (Teacher Employment Working Group):

No, I think that I got most of it.

The question reflects the complexity of the issues that we have to deal with. A number of factors affect the ability to plan the teacher workforce, not least the number of students going through the system. Given the fact that, for planning, a bachelor of education qualification will have a six-year time lag and a one-year certificate will have an 18-month to two-year time lag, it is difficult to ensure that the teacher workforce at any given time reflects the needs of the local authorities that are delivering education services to children in Scotland. The primary aim must be that the numbers match, which is one reason for the interest in and concern about the issue.

I am open about the fact that concern has been expressed about teacher numbers and employment—it is why the Cabinet Secretary for Education and Lifelong Learning established our group. We were keen to examine whether the process was still fit for purpose, and we had to take into account not just the number of students coming through the teacher education institutions but the number of teachers leaving the profession in any one year, which is another set of estimates and assumptions that require to be made. The basic assumption is that approximately 6,000 teachers leave the profession in any given year, but that that number will be affected by several issues, not least the current economic situation, which will affect teachers' intentions about the end of their teaching careers.

We must balance students coming into the system, teachers leaving the system and all the factors in-between, such as what an authority needs because of the demography of its area and the number of children who enter its schools. All those factors play into the system.

I am afraid that I have given a long answer, because the question is complex. We began by considering all the evidence that we could gather. Our first request was for Government statisticians to talk to us and explain as best they could to those of us who are lay people how they model statistically the number of teachers who will enter the system year on year. That was our starting point.

How far along that line have COSLA and the Government managed to go? Is projecting how the process might develop over the next six years a possibility?

Joe Di Paola:

The period will be six years, which covers two spending reviews. That is another factor that plays into local authorities' ability to determine how many teachers they might need. The six-year time lag of the BEd crosses two spending reviews and all the discussions that require to take place for them. If nothing else but the report and that work are done, the local authority view about the absolute need for the best statistical evidence that we can obtain and for closer working with the Government on the planning that is required on teacher numbers will be refreshed.

The Association of Directors of Education in Scotland is discussing with Government statisticians how it, as the professional body responsible for education, can work more closely with them. I know from experience that a personnel network is attached to ADES. That network and I will engage with the statisticians in the near future.

Margaret Smith:

Good morning. Earlier this year, the committee took evidence on probationer teachers, because we were concerned about the proportions of probationers who were in employment and who were in permanent posts. The issue has many facets. In that evidence, a national staffing formula was suggested, which the teacher employment working group discussed and rejected. I understand that one reason for that rejection was that your group felt that the suggestion ran counter to the concordat and to the new relationship between the Government and local authorities.

My view is that the proposal ultimately comes out of the McCrone agreement, which was negotiated and which most key people are more positive about than they were about the situation in Scottish education before the agreement. Is it beyond us to have a national staffing formula that is negotiated by the same component people getting round a table and taking all the factors into account? At its heart, the McCrone agreement could be seen to be an imposition, because it provides a guaranteed probationary year and other features. Such decisions were centralised, but they were taken after negotiation. Could a national staffing formula be achieved with the same format?

Joe Di Paola:

One of my other jobs is to be the employers secretary on the Scottish negotiating committee for teachers, so I am one of the guardians of the McCrone agreement, although I was not involved in the negotiations. You are right to say that parts of "A Teaching Profession for the 21st Century" are done at the centre. However, as you know, the McCrone agreement devolved quite a lot of responsibility to local negotiating committees in authorities, on which teacher unions meet their authorities and deal with several important teacher deployment issues locally. It would be difficult to try to introduce a single national formula, given the different sizes, geography, demography and economic circumstances of the 32 unitary authorities in Scotland.

We had an open and robust discussion on a national staffing standard, in particular with teacher trade union colleagues, as you can imagine. Members have read the working group's report, so they will know that that was the only aspect on which the teacher trade unions wanted their dissent to be recorded. Whether or not the report finds favour everywhere, its 12 recommendations were unanimously agreed by all parties in the working group, and the national staffing standard was the only area of dissent. That says something about the report and about how a national staffing standard is less a technical device and more the subject of negotiations between the teacher trade unions and employers, with Government as the third party in the tripartite bargaining machinery. I hope that I have given a flavour of why the group did not think that it was appropriate to go for a national staffing standard.

Margaret Smith:

Representatives of the teaching unions and other people have made general comments to us about how a national staffing formula might provide a greater degree of certainty, not just to unions and the workforce but in relation to workforce planning. Staffing is a major component of the education budget and it has been suggested that, without the safeguards that a national formula might provide, local authorities throughout the country, which are under financial pressure, might make short-term decisions. You might not be able to nail down workforce planning if it is at the mercy of short-term financial decision making.

Joe Di Paola:

I will give you an example. Dumfries and Galloway Council recently advertised a permanent primary teaching post and received one application. If the council was working to the same national staffing standard as East Renfrewshire Council and Glasgow City Council, it would be looking for a lot more than one primary post and it would not fill the posts. The approach would not work.

A difficulty with imposing a national standard is that it is clear that rural authorities and authorities that are on the periphery of the country—I am not denigrating such authorities—find it incredibly difficult to fill posts. You will know from the report that we think that the preference waiver scheme needs to be altered.

It would be incredibly difficult to adopt a single approach throughout the country, because the country is so diverse. Different areas have diverse needs, as recent experience demonstrates. That is not to say that a single approach will always be ruled out, but it would have to be the subject of serious and difficult negotiation.

Ken Macintosh:

What account have you been able to take of the effect of Government policies? There is a new relationship between local government and central Government. In your report you refer to the stages of the modelling process. You found the modelling to be robust and state:

"At this stage any additional teachers needed to implement government policies, having been separately modelled, are added."

Last year, the Government encouraged an extra 300 people into teacher training. Did COSLA approve that decision? If not, was it approved by individual local authorities?

Joe Di Paola:

No, that decision was subject to the planning process between the General Teaching Council for Scotland and central Government. If the Government takes a policy decision, it must fund its impact. The Government did that for the extra 300 in teacher training.

Having looked at the modelling process and the workforce planning, are you confident that it was a good decision to have an extra 300 in teacher training, that there was a need for them and that there will be vacancies for them?

Joe Di Paola:

That is one of the problems, Mr Macintosh. It is not our job to determine what should happen to those teachers. Central Government took a policy decision, implemented it and provided the funding, which meant that the 300 teachers came into the system. The modelling process did not deal with them separately. They came into the process in the same way as any other student who comes through the teacher education institutions, then goes out into the local authorities. They will have the same ability as any other postgraduate student who has gone through teacher education to state preferences for local authorities, which will need to be matched or met as best as possible in the teacher induction scheme. Frankly, that is how it happens. They will not and cannot be treated differently. If they were treated differently, it could be regarded as discrimination.

Do you or COSLA monitor how many teacher posts exist in local authorities at any one time?

Joe Di Paola:

Yes. That information is modelled by local authorities and by central Government. It is currently based on the 2006-07 figure of 54,900, which included 53,000 teachers—the figure that everybody refers to—1,600 centrally funded visiting specialists and the extra 300 to which you referred. Knowing those figures, we and local authorities then monitor the number of teachers leaving the profession, for whatever reason. The starting point in properly identifying teacher numbers is monitoring how many leave the profession. We should know the number of students coming through and know from the probation scheme the number of probationary teachers.

As part of its work, did the teacher employment working group look at the match between the number of teachers coming through and the number of current vacancies?

Joe Di Paola:

We tried to examine that aspect carefully. You will understand that the rate of teachers leaving local authorities varies hugely, and that the situation has changed over the past three to four years. There was an assumption, using statistics that were perhaps five or 10 years old, that there would be a bulge in the number of teachers leaving the profession because of baby boomers leaving last year, this year and next year. However, given the recent change in economic circumstances, those assumptions might not be accurate now. Some of the early information that we have seems to show that teachers are not retiring at 60 but staying on until they are 62 or 63, or stating their intention to stay on until then.

We asked colleagues in a number of authorities to look at predicting retirement numbers, because that is one way of finding out where the gaps are. Certainly, more teachers are staying on after 60. Our information is that authorities would be willing to canvass teachers who are 58-plus about retirement. However, that is about teachers' retirement intentions and, given the age discrimination legislation that is now rightly in place, we cannot ask someone about their retirement intentions in a way that might be construed as applying discriminatory pressure. We must be careful about how we find out about such intentions.

Ken Macintosh:

I do not disagree with any of that, and I am sure that your recommendations were agreed unanimously. However, perhaps there is still a gap between the number of teachers coming through the system and the number who get jobs.

What credence do you give the annual GTCS survey? Interestingly, the latest one comes out today. The surveys have shown a clear trend regarding the difficulty that probationers experience in finding employment as they come out of their probationary year.

Joe Di Paola:

The GTCS survey obviously has credibility—it is based on returns from teachers, and the GTCS carries it out. As with all surveys, we must consider the rate of return and judge whether it is high enough to offer a proper statistical model on which assumptions can be based, but we must always have regard to the survey. It is carried out twice a year, and there is a peak in post-probation unemployment, which drops back over the course of the year. As with all surveys, we must be careful about when the snapshot was taken. I am in no way suggesting, however, that the survey is not a real, important signpost that authorities must consider very carefully.

Ken Macintosh:

I agree on the point about snapshots, but there have been three snapshots—from today, there will be four—and, if we join them up, they reveal a very worrying trend.

A report that was commissioned by the GTCS and the University of Glasgow suggested that

"The restricted availability of opportunities"

for probationers in finding permanent posts

"impairs the professional development of early career stage teachers".

That seems to be having a serious effect on the teaching profession. Did the teacher employment working group consider that issue?

Joe Di Paola:

The group did consider the effect of post-probationary teachers finding difficulty getting employment—which you are right about—and what that might mean for their ability to continue to develop as teachers. Our comments on the matter were not greeted with universal approval. We raised the question of authorities trying to give preference to post-probationary teachers, as opposed to retired teachers, in supply work. We were advised by our legal people that supply work—and even permanent supply pools, which some authorities have introduced—is not age discriminatory when it is provided to develop the skills and abilities of immediate post-probationary teachers. It is not about age; it is about developing the skills of the teachers so that they continue to be fit for purpose.

Allied to that point, we said that authorities should consider very carefully the possibility of having permanent supply pools. Supply pools present a cost to authorities, which need to pay the teachers while they keep them in those pools. It was recognised that it is a waste if people come through the system and achieve the standard for full registration but are unable to deploy their skills and abilities. In the short term, there are two ways of dealing with that. First, they can be given preference for short-term supply. Secondly, authorities can be told that, although it comes at a cost to them, they should seriously consider having supply pools.

I will say one more thing about supply. I am clear about this and, as a lay person, I went through this point with the statisticians. The percentage that is required to keep schools fully staffed over the course of a school year, based on statistics from the past five or more years, is 8 per cent. In other words, about 8 per cent of the teaching profession, or teachers, need to be working in supply. That could be described as overstocking by 8 per cent to deal with illness, sickness, maternity and retiral. There is a difficulty, because if there is a slowing up in relation to any one factor, it means that the reservoir is filling at one end but nothing is coming out the other end. That remains the central difficulty.

Ken Macintosh:

The recommendations to improve the current system will be welcomed. However, the biggest worry is that our fundamental concern is not being addressed: is there a clash between supply and demand? I refer to the supply of teachers rather than to supply teachers. You said in your report:

"there was some concern that the most recent national staffing level assumptions did not match local authority workforce levels as closely as has been the case before the change in Scottish/local government relationships."

Should we do something about that? Last year, an additional 300 teachers were recruited. If the current probationers are not finding employment, it seems daft to recruit into the profession and then disappoint even more teachers at the end of their probationary year. Is that not a worry for you?

Joe Di Paola:

It absolutely is a worry for anyone who is involved in the supply and provision of education services. We recognise that we need to get a better match between the number of teachers coming into the profession and the number of vacancies, because if those people do not have jobs it is a waste of talent, time and effort.

The other factor is that the higher education institutions—I am sure that they would speak for themselves on the subject—that deliver teacher education also have a clear view about their part of the equation. They need to maintain student teacher numbers in their institutions to ensure their viability as institutions and—more important, in some ways—to ensure the viability of the courses that are being taught in respect of primary and some of the secondary subjects in particular. There is pressure to ensure that the higher education institutions are able to continue to deliver qualified teachers in secondary subjects and in the primary sector. There are probably seven or eight different factors in the equation, which makes it difficult to balance. However, I do not disagree with your point.

I am trying to get back to the fundamental point: local authorities might control demand, as it were, but the Government controls supply and has a clear responsibility for recruiting teachers.

Joe Di Paola:

Yes, and there has been clear agreement that teacher numbers will remain at the 53,000 level, which to my knowledge remains the agreed level at which teacher numbers will be held in Scotland. Anything that alters that level requires to be dealt with.

But do you not feel that we should find further mechanisms to address what is clearly a problem at the moment between the Government's responsibility for supply and your responsibility for demand?

Joe Di Paola:

There was a debate about whether the working group should finish its work and say, "That's it." In answer to your question, it is unrealistic to say that its work is a closed chapter. One of the things that will happen is that more local authority people will be on the on-going teacher planning group, which is an established body. We have to work together more closely, and we are committed to doing that.

I do not rule out at any point in the future someone having another look at what happens, because if the trend continues we need to see whether there is anything else that we can do. At the minute, we have examined the teacher employment pattern based on the fairly narrow remit that we were given. If something else is required, local authorities will not be slow in bringing it forward.

The Convener:

You have touched on retirals several times this morning in response to questions. I want to pursue that subject with you. You said that approximately 6,000 teachers retire each year, but it appears that there has been a failure to understand the number of teachers who were likely to retire at this moment in time. Why did the modelling get that so badly wrong and how confident can you be that modelling on future retirals will be any more accurate?

Joe Di Paola:

I do not think that the estimates were so badly wrong. One reason why there were clear differences is that the economic situation is such that teachers are staying for longer. If even just 10 per cent indicate that they want to stay for another two or three years, that skews the model markedly.

The question of age discrimination is also relevant. We were light on it, but we have to be careful how such issues are dealt with. Like everybody else, teachers have to be given the proper opportunity to consider at what stage in their career they want to retire. One of our comments was that the winding-down scheme, which is part of the McCrone agreement, must be examined. Everybody seemed to be committed to it, but we have asked the authorities to look at it again to ensure that no unnecessary barriers are put in the place of teachers who want to wind down.

I suppose that my answer is that you are right: not as many teachers are leaving the profession as the model suggested. However, the model is based almost entirely on age profiles—the age at which people enter the profession and their age in this and succeeding years. Other extraneous factors can affect the situation, such as economic circumstances and the winding-down scheme not being to teachers' liking. We should consider the winding-down scheme as it has real benefits, but one difficulty is that the United Kingdom Treasury must consider it too, because it must be fiscally neutral under the pension regulations.

I understand that work is being done on that at a UK level, and once the Treasury has completed it, we can begin to pick it up. If we have a mismatch because the number of teachers leaving the profession is slowing, we need to address that in a way that is sensitive to both individuals and the system.

You rightly touched on the fact that the McCrone agreement offered a winding-up scheme—[Interruption.] Sorry, a winding-down scheme.

Joe Di Paola:

You might have been right the first time. [Laughter.]

The Convener:

Advantage has not been taken of the scheme as widely as was perhaps expected. You have indicated that there might be numerous reasons for that on top of the issues that the Treasury needs to consider. Are there also funding issues for local authorities in making the scheme not only a right that people can take up but something that authorities can deliver financially and that they want teachers to take advantage of towards the end of their career?

Joe Di Paola:

The short answer is yes. Of itself, it is a valuable scheme and more authorities would like to be able to take advantage of it, but we have to examine it to ensure that if there are barriers to authorities either letting teachers use it or getting them to use it, we know about them.

The scheme was a part of the agreement that was always in the background. People knew about it, but I do not think that it has been promoted to the extent that it needs to be. It is part of the agreement, so it will be dealt with as part of the bargaining arrangements in the SNCT. We clearly need to consider it.

The Convener:

When I have discussed the issue with my local authority, it has indicated that the scheme presents a resourcing issue. I have written to the minister about it because education officials in North Lanarkshire have suggested that if some flexibility and the necessary resources existed, some teachers would be willing to take retirement at the summer holidays—not midway through a term—as long as they were financially recompensed.

Did you consider that? If you did, what consideration was given to how much that might cost and the resource implications for local authorities of allowing them to proceed in such a way?

Joe Di Paola:

The more general issue of resource allocation was not part of our remit, so we did not consider it.

In advance of coming to the meeting, I again asked a number of colleagues in various authorities about their views on early retirement. If authorities say that they are looking for people to retire, human nature being what it is, teachers in post will wait to find out whether later on in the term or the financial year there will be any enhancement, or additional years. Therefore, the ability to plan five or six months ahead of the end of a school year is quite limited, because people will hang off and wait to see whether there is any spare money and whether anything better comes up towards the end of the year. However, you are right to say that the issue is the ability to finance schemes. The teacher employment working group did not consider overall finance.

You did not consider that issue, but is it worthy of further exploration?

Joe Di Paola:

I am not entirely sure who would explain things or what would be explained.

It is not about explaining; it is about whether COSLA and the Government should discuss the matter and whether further discussions would be worth while.

Joe Di Paola:

There will certainly be further discussions about retirement patterns, the winding-down scheme and the possibility of early retirement, but I suppose that the matter that you raise falls within the wider context of funding for education.

The Convener:

Finally, your report suggests that further research needs to be done on the factors that influence teachers to retire, and particularly on the effect that the economic downturn might have on retirement decisions. It would be helpful if you told us why that is important and whether concentrating on one factor would allow COSLA and the Government to get a sufficient grasp of the various reasons why teachers choose to retire at any given time. Should research be more wide ranging than concentrating only on the economic downturn?

Joe Di Paola:

In considering such important matters as ensuring that we have the correct number of teachers in the system at any one time, we need to base the assumptions that we make on the best information that is available to us. We took the view that it was entirely appropriate to get the best possible information on the number of teachers who are coming into the profession if there is any question about the number who will be leaving it—that is a big factor. That can be done in a number of ways, but the group took the view—which was widely held—that in the first instance there should be proper engagement between the local authorities and the Government so that we get the best information that we can.

The issue is not just teachers leaving the profession; wider work needs to be done on tracking. We said that a cohort of teachers should be tracked all the way through the process so that we can see what happens to them. That would be valuable in addressing your point about what happens to the flow and numbers of teachers. Tracking a cohort through the student and probation systems and finding out what spaces are available for them would be helpful in correcting what could become a serious mismatch.

Aileen Campbell:

Good afternoon. You touched on supply teachers. The working group's report says that the number of teachers being trained to meet demand for supply cover has doubled since 2004. I think that you mentioned a figure of 8 per cent. The report also states that some local authorities use retired teachers to fill supply posts. Why were more teachers trained to allow for supply cover if there was evidence that retired teachers were being used as supply teachers?

Joe Di Paola:

The evidence about that practice is anecdotal rather than statistical, although there is no point in saying that it does not happen, because it does, and for a variety of reasons. For example, experienced teachers can slot in easily, which helps the smooth running of schools, so there are attractions in using retired teachers, and clearly that has happened.

Our view is that if there is clear public concern about post-probation teachers not getting employment, authorities should do what I described earlier when I referred to the development of teachers. Notwithstanding any nervousness about possible age discrimination, authorities should say that it would be wrong not to employ teachers who are immediately post probation because they have met the standard and are ready to teach—that is what should happen. That is why we said specifically that there should be a preference for employing post-probation teachers. We were clear about that.

Aileen Campbell:

You were clear about that in your recommendations, but questions have been raised about human rights and age discrimination. Does any legislation have a bearing on your recommendation that there should be a preference for post-probation teachers?

Joe Di Paola:

Like the Government, we took detailed advice on the matter. Our view is that such a preference does not constitute age discrimination; there is nothing to suggest that a post-probation teacher should be of a particular age or sex. It is about ensuring that the post-probation teacher who has achieved the standard for full registration can teach in schools. There is no reason for not allowing them to do so and every reason for allowing them to give the children in Scotland the benefit of their expertise.

Aileen Campbell:

A table in one of our papers indicates clearly that there are more post-probation teachers in supply posts in primary schools than there are in supply posts in secondary schools. Did you find any reasons for the considerable difference in those numbers?

Joe Di Paola:

There are more permanent vacancies in the secondary sector, so it does not have as many supply posts as the primary sector. In fact, one difficulty that we identified is that because teachers must be subject-specific in the secondary sector, it does not require the same number of supply teachers.

Were there geographic and subject differences, or do the numbers just reflect the general trend?

Joe Di Paola:

We had to consider people's ability or desire to work in different geographic locations in Scotland and the requirement to fill subject-specific slots in secondary schools in different authorities. Some authorities have not been able to fill particular subjects and require people. I agree that there is a marked difference between supply requirements in the secondary and primary sectors. That is another reason why the preference waiver scheme has been increased for the secondary sector but not for the primary sector. The increase recognises the difference in attracting people to go into specific subjects in specific areas in the secondary sector.

I have a question that is not directly related to the supply issue. You noted that increased media coverage was having an adverse effect on the number of people applying for places. Was that demonstrated by people coming forward to you?

Joe Di Paola:

Again, that does not have a statistical basis, but there was a lot of media interest in and reaction to the view that a lot of post-probation teachers were not getting jobs, and people on the working group expressed concern about that. In particular, as you would expect, colleagues from the higher education institutes said, "Why would people want to become teachers if they see in the media that they will not get a job when they finish their training?" There is concern about whether the teaching profession remains attractive to graduates and whether people will want to become teachers.

So it is important to find the right balance between not flagging up concerns and flagging them up so much that it puts people off and creates a vicious spiral.

Joe Di Paola:

Exactly.

Elizabeth Smith:

I turn to the primary sector. Earlier this year, we took evidence from Frances Jack, who was a newly qualified primary school teacher at Currie primary school in Edinburgh. She gave us a detailed account of the difficulties that new teachers face in finding work after their probationary year. She flagged up the fact that some local authorities are flexible about the jobs for which they allow the pool of people to apply but others are restrictive. Did your working group examine local authorities' different approaches to employment?

Joe Di Paola:

We did not specifically consider different employment practices in different authorities. In our work, we focused on the Scottish model.

Elizabeth Smith:

Perhaps the matter should be considered. It bears out what you said in your answer to Ken Macintosh, because part of the difficulty is geographical immobility. People are more willing to work in the central belt and the cities, and it is more difficult to get people to go further afield, particularly in the primary sector. If it is true that some local authorities are a bit restrictive—I say that guardedly—in how they operate the pool of labour supply, that might be a considerable barrier to allowing greater flexibility within demand and supply.

Joe Di Paola:

I would like to believe that there are no unnecessary restrictions in local authorities, but if that issue has been raised, I would want to ask colleagues who have direct responsibility for education provision, particularly the directors in ADES, whether that is the case.

Elizabeth Smith:

Frances Jack told us that some local authorities got a greater choice of candidates because people were allowed to cross local authority borders, which put people further up the list. She had had to wait for specific opportunities in regions. It seems to me that that rule creates rigidity in the labour supply.

Joe Di Paola:

In the induction scheme, the individual can choose five authorities and put them in order from one to five. That shows where they want to go, or which geographical areas they favour. If that affects how an authority views a candidate, I do not think that I—or any of us—can do much about that. The individual can choose five authorities, so they have a broad choice.

If she is saying that, because candidates place authorities in order of preference, that gives them a disadvantage in respect of going to one of the authorities on the list, I suppose that that could and should be examined, because it should not give them a disadvantage. A candidate should be able to say, "There are five authorities that I want to go to." If they live in Edinburgh, one assumes that their first preference will be Edinburgh. That should not count against them.

Elizabeth Smith:

I turn to the class size policy. When we took evidence from ADES, it was obvious that the policy is being implemented at different rates. In some cases, progress is relatively positive, but in others, frankly, it is not. Some local authorities do not regard the policy as a priority. How has that affected the statistical projections of how many teachers will be required over the next few years?

Joe Di Paola:

My group did not look specifically at the impact of that and I have not seen any statistical modelling that takes it into account.

Would it be an appropriate thing to include in the model, given that it will have implications for the numbers employed to cover primary 1 to primary 3 in the future?

Joe Di Paola:

With all due respect, that is a matter for wider discussion rather than for discussion just in my group.

Will you suggest which group should discuss the matter?

Joe Di Paola:

It should be the subject of discussion between the Government and COSLA at political level.

Elizabeth Smith:

But do you accept, as you rightly pointed out, that it is extremely important that we get that right and that there is a greater match between supply and demand, because we are dealing with people's lives and careers? If the Government has made a specific commitment to a policy to reduce class sizes to no more than 18 in P1 to P3, that will have a huge effect on employment prospects. Would it not be sensible and relevant for your group to look at that?

Joe Di Paola:

It is an important factor that will affect the modelling of the number of people coming in and out of the profession, and you are absolutely right that it will require to be taken into account by the teacher workforce planning group, which is a standing body—unlike my group, which has finished now.

Have you recommended that it should take it into account?

Joe Di Paola:

The teacher workforce planning group will pick up the issue; it picks up any such issue or policy change.

But I am right that you have made specific recommendations for things to be considered.

Joe Di Paola:

Yes, we have.

Have you made the suggestion that—

Joe Di Paola:

We did not make that recommendation.

Christina McKelvie:

Good afternoon. I turn to secondary teachers now that we have spoken about primary teachers. You mentioned earlier that a particular challenge seems to exist in achieving the appropriate distribution of placements across certain subjects and geographical areas and in filling certain posts permanently. It seems that in some local authorities places are left unfilled and in some places are oversubscribed—it is another question of balance. In your report, you recommended an increase in the preference waiver scheme figure from £6,000 to £8,000. You spoke about that earlier. As it stands, about 8 per cent of graduates take up the £6,000 waiver. What proportion of graduates do you expect to take up the increased waiver of £8,000?

Joe Di Paola:

That is a difficult assumption to make. How much more attractive is £8,000 than £6,000? All that I can say is that it is to be hoped that the £8,000 will help teachers who are prepared to move to where it is difficult to fill posts, which is the case particularly in the secondary sector—which explains the differential in the waiver scheme for that sector—to move. However, people's individual circumstances are such that I do not know how we would model the uptake.

Once the recommendations have been accepted and the £8,000 figure has been introduced, we will have to look at the situation over two or three years to see what impact it has made. Only then will we be able to say what difference the £8,000 rather than £6,000 has made. I am not ducking the issue; I genuinely think that we need to wait to see what the impact is. A number of figures were put about inside the group and people wondered whether we should push the figure up higher to see what impact that had. On balance, the view was that adding £2,000—going from £6,000 to £8,000—might have an impact that would be measurable.

You mentioned the impact of the current economic situation on retirement. Will the increase in money go some way towards filling some of the unfilled places?

Joe Di Paola:

The increase in what?

The increase in the waiver payment, which, in effect, means extra cash.

Joe Di Paola:

The honest answer is that at the moment we simply do not know. I hope that the measure will address the problem because, after all, part of its aim is to achieve better distribution.

How much of a relationship is there between probationer placements and probationers securing a permanent post? For example, someone attracted to teaching in a remote area might have the option of staying there permanently.

Joe Di Paola:

Clear evidence from a number of councils that could hardly be described as being in the central belt shows that many post-probationer teachers who are attracted to more remote communities tend to stay in the area because they like the style of life, their work, the size of their school and so on. Of course, the approach is not all altruistic; if the people we attract to fill gaps in the more remote rural authority areas stay there, so much the better. Perhaps we should be saying to post-probationer teachers that such areas are not in the back of beyond and that they might actually find them very pleasant to work in.

There are more options as well.

Joe Di Paola:

Well, there can be.

Is there any evidence that retention is better in places that have been filled under the current waiver scheme?

Joe Di Paola:

I do not think that there is a lot of statistical evidence on that but anecdotal evidence suggests that people who are attracted to the waiver scheme tend to stay in the area.

How does the number of post-probationers in the waiver scheme compare with the number of post-probationers looking for permanent posts?

Joe Di Paola:

It is not a very large percentage. I do not have the exact figure to hand, but I can get it for you.

That is fine. Thank you.

Did you find the increase in the preference waiver payment to be the biggest single factor in attracting post-probationers to more rural and outlying areas?

Joe Di Paola:

It is not the biggest single factor, but it is certainly one of the attractions that some of these authorities and places highlight to people. As I said, post-probationers might be attracted by the size of the school, the kind of work that they can do and so on. I do not think that the £8,000 would itself be the primary factor—although perhaps I should call it the main factor, given that we are talking about secondary schools. However, by signing up to the scheme, they are indicating that they are prepared to go anywhere, and the £8,000 might be a way of saying, "That'll help you move."

I think that that concludes our questions—

Ken Macintosh:

I have one brief question, convener. I thought that we were supposed to come back to supply and distribution at the end.

Mr Di Paola, you said earlier that the mismatch between the number of probationers and the number of jobs could become serious. As you have made clear, this area is complex for a number of reasons, one of which is the new relationship between local government and central Government. If the mismatch is not yet serious, at what point will it become so?

Joe Di Paola:

I do not want you to think that we do not think that the situation is serious. If there is any kind of mismatch—if teachers are being trained, but are not getting jobs—that is a serious issue that must be addressed. My group has begun to examine the issue and has made certain recommendations but, as I said earlier, that is not the end of the matter. The situation must continue to be monitored not only by local authorities, who are, after all, teachers' employers, but by central Government, which determines policy. The issue is—and continues to be—serious, and we are trying as best we can to make progress in dealing with it.

Have you finished your questions, Mr Macintosh?

Yes, I have. I will keep the rest for the minister.

That concludes our questions and today's meeting. I thank Mr Di Paola for his attendance.

Meeting closed at 12:40.