Official Report 284KB pdf
I reopen the meeting. The fourth agenda item concerns the Electoral Commission report "Scottish elections 2007: The independent review of the Scottish Parliamentary and local government elections 3 May 2007".
Yes, thank you very much. I thank you for giving me the opportunity to discuss my report of the review of the 3 May elections and my comments on options and recommendations on the local government elections.
Thank you for that short statement. You said in your report:
Following the release of my report, I was somewhat disturbed by the fact that, in my view, some of the media and some of the debates that occurred were looking back and trying to apportion blame and assess who was responsible for what, rather than taking the problems that arose as the starting point for resolution and avoiding them in future. I was concerned that the report would be used as a vehicle for debate about who did what to whom rather than a vehicle for positive progress. That was one of the reasons for the explanatory letter that I felt was necessary. In reality, it is impossible to assess blame because, although many people were responsible for many things, no one had ultimate responsibility, so the buck stopped nowhere.
Good morning, Mr Gould. In your report, you comment that
I have been trying to avoid getting into discussions about who would be responsible for the legislation. It would certainly be useful to have one focus for all legislation. However, it is worth while to consider the election process as having two major components, the first being the legislative component and the second being the operational component. In my view, and when talking about the chief returning officer, the operational component has to be in one place and run by one body or one individual. If the legislation—or the responsibility for legislation—is split between two Parliaments, it needs to be worked into and co-ordinated with the operational side. Whether elections are devolved or combined, the legislation could still be split, and the responsibility for the application of that legislation united in one location.
Would it be beneficial, in order to focus on specific elections, if those were decoupled, as was recommended by the Kerley report at the beginning of devolution?
If it is felt that local issues and local candidates are important objectives, combining elections would defeat those objectives. If you really want the public to recognise what is needed at the local level in the local elections, then the elections need to be separated by years, months or days. As soon as you combine them, the parliamentary elections take over the spotlight.
Obviously, as the Local Government and Communities Committee, local government is our central focus. It seems to have been forgotten that the number of spoiled ballot papers in the local authority elections was three times higher this year than in the previous election. According to a report from Unlock Democracy, about 26 per cent of people it recruited as volunteers to monitor elections were unsure about how the single transferable vote worked. Are you convinced that voters knew how STV worked? I understand that you have looked at some of the ballot papers. It would appear that a lot of people went into the voting booth and put only one X, not realising that they could put their first, second and third preferences. Indeed, if two or three candidates from one political party were standing, some people may have put two or three Xs, which unfortunately invalidated their votes. Will you comment on those issues?
In the new system, the parliamentary ballot seemed, for various reasons, to be better understood. Ironically, however, the percentage of rejected ballot papers for the local elections was much lower than for the parliamentary election—both regional and constituency. Obviously, people understood how to mark the ballot. There were errors, and the error rate was higher than it had been in the past. However, the Cragg Ross Dawson report "Ballot Paper Designs for Scottish Parliament Elections 2007", from the Scottish Executive, raises the question whether voters understood that they could mark 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and so on for all candidates, whether they felt restricted or whether they had other concerns. As it was the first election of its type, it is quite possible that people did not take full advantage of the system for marking the ballots that was available to them. A lot more voter education and information could be provided in advance of future elections, so that people are more comfortable with the process.
At the count, I noticed that in cases in which there was more than one candidate from the same political party, there was a high correlation between the surname of a candidate—and hence their position on the ballot paper—and how well they did in the election. In my constituency, I noticed that, regardless of a candidate's political persuasion, the higher up the alphabet they were, the more likely they were to be elected. Even when candidates from the same party were grouped together because they had similar surnames, the person whose name was higher up the ballot paper got more votes. The greater the distance between candidates' surnames, the greater the difference in the number of votes that they got. For example, a candidate for the Scottish National Party who was called Alasdair Allan was more likely to get votes than a candidate for the SNP who was called William Wallace. How concerned are you about that? Will you expand on your recommendation to have a lottery to determine the position of candidates' names on the ballot paper?
Yes. It is recognised internationally that the higher up the ballot paper someone's name is, the greater their chance of getting more votes. In other words, the top of the ballot paper is the most preferential position. There is also a possibility that, through advertising, a candidate can obtain a preferential position at the bottom of the ballot paper. The alphabetical listing of candidates or parties tends always to ensure that there is a preference for those candidates or parties that are higher up the alphabet and therefore higher up the paper.
Welcome. You said that the buck stopped nowhere. If we agreed that the two elections ought not to take place on the same day, the matter would be resolved. If responsibility for the Scottish Parliament elections remained with Westminster and responsibility for local government elections remained with us, but the elections took place at separate times, we would no longer be faced with the complexities of bringing together the two elections. The issue is not that Westminster and the Scottish Parliament have different areas of responsibility, but that they have to work together to deliver their responsibilities.
Separating the two elections would minimise complexity, and many of the problems that arose this time would be avoided. On the other hand, the management of both elections involves the same responsibilities, mechanics, knowledge, skills, background and training. That is why it would be in everyone's interest to have one chief returning officer handle both elections. That officer would answer to whichever jurisdiction was responsible for the election concerned. Returning officers, too, should be more professionalised and should be responsible for all elections and all aspects of those elections, if possible. That is preferable to having as returning officers individuals whose main jobs are as executive officers and who serve incidentally as returning officers because an election has been called.
So where jurisdiction over the election lies is not the issue. It is possible to have the clarity and accountability that you seek and the structure that you have described regardless of whether Westminster remains responsible for the Scottish Parliament elections. Such a structure is not predicated on changing where responsibility for the elections lies, as has been suggested. We do not need to bring responsibility for all elections to the Scottish Parliament in order to get clarity.
Yes. There would be no question as to who had the authority, was responsible and was accountable at each level. That would be very clear, right up to legislative level. As things stand, decisions about local government elections lie with the Scottish Government and decisions about legislation and policy for Scottish Parliament elections lie with the UK Government.
I was interested in your solution for making the ballot paper more accessible—having a public lottery to determine the position in which candidates and parties appear. Have you done any work on literacy issues and on people's ability to understand the ballot paper? People with basic literacy learn alphabetical order as it helps them to locate information. Did you do any work on the disadvantage that could be created for people who have problems understanding the ballot paper? Would grouping candidates by political party clarify the situation for people, especially where parties have put up more than one candidate? Anecdotal evidence suggested to me that a large number of spoiled ballots could have been related to parties having more than one candidate; people put down three crosses rather than one, only one of which was counted. Did you do any work on how the ballot paper should have looked with those who understand the particular needs of people with literacy problems?
That is an interesting question. You raise a fundamental issue. Every proposed change to any stage or aspect of an election process must be tested in order to determine what confusion it may cause, as the approach may not be traditional, and to determine the easiest way in which voters can understand the story. Once proposed changes have been examined, the approach that is determined must be backed up by a lot of voter information and education.
Is it fair to say that those who promote STV systems do so on the basis of fairness to political parties? Therefore, given that the test of the system is the extent to which it results in fairer shares of votes for the political parties, it could reasonably be expected that the ballot paper should give parties a place, as opposed to pretending that a party election was not taking place.
I am not sure of your question. In a single transferable vote system, votes are, obviously, transferred from candidate to candidate as opposed to from party to party. One issue that was raised with us during our consultations was that there was a pattern whereby, when a party had more than one candidate on the ballot paper, the candidate at the top of the list would always have the favourable result and the second candidate would pay the price. It appears that if the party focus is important in local government elections, party candidates should be grouped by party name.
Good morning, Mr Gould.
I will deal with the Cragg Ross Dawson report first. As you are well aware, there were two reports, one of which was conducted by the Electoral Commission, and the second of which was done for the Local Government and Transport Committee and the Scottish Executive.
In your experience, do STV systems of voting, such as the one that we had for the first time in our local government elections, tend to produce habitually a higher level of spoiled or wasted ballot papers than a traditional first-past-the-post system does? Is the fact that we had three times as many spoiled papers simply a function of the novelty of the system, or is it the result of design failings or lack of voter information?
I do not have statistics on that at my fingertips, but my impression and understanding is that STV systems do not necessarily have higher rates of spoiled or rejected ballots. One area in which that matter could be determined or checked quickly is Northern Ireland, which has had STV for at least two elections—I have attended two such elections there. Again, we return to the point that the problem with STV in the elections in Scotland was a multiple problem, arising from the combination of a traditional system with which people were familiar, a new system that arrived late and a ballot that was defined very late in the process, which meant that the hard-nosed training and voter information was not as comprehensive as it should have been. My expectation is that, at the next election, whether it is combined or decoupled, the rate of rejected ballots will drop significantly.
Is there a standard that we should aim for? For example, if the rejection rate is 0.6 per cent, with whatever system, does that mean that by and large voters understood the system and there were no problems with design or information? Is that the sort of level that you aim for? If the figure was 1 per cent, would that be a problem? The rate was 1.8 per cent for the local government elections and 4 per cent for the Scottish Parliament elections. What standard should we set for the results that the system should achieve, to allow us to judge the quality of the system?
There is an existing standard in Scottish elections. Looking back to 2003, the rate of rejected ballots for the local government election was about 0.64 or 0.66 per cent. In the parliamentary election, the rejection rate for the regional and constituency ballots was about 0.64, 0.65 or 0.66 per cent. Less than 1 per cent is a normal acceptable level.
I want to follow up on the questions about the Cragg Ross Dawson research findings. The findings on design aspects of the local government ballot paper—in particular, that of listing by alphabetical order or by party group—were discussed in a parliamentary committee. As a member of that committee at the time, I am not aware that spoilage was a pertinent issue in those discussions. Similarly, I am not aware that the discussions on the research on the Scottish Parliament elections focused on spoilage. However, as your report states, the research suggested that a 4 per cent spoilage rate would occur, which is in fact what happened in the Scottish Parliament elections. However, the spoilage rate did not seem to be an issue that came out of that research. Is that a fair comment?
Yes. Interestingly, the Cragg Ross Dawson study for the Scottish Parliament election, which involved 100 people, found a 4 per cent spoilage rate, which equated to the reality of the election rejection rate. However, a 4 per cent spoilage rate out of 100 people is four people. The Cragg Ross Dawson study for the local government elections commented that "only a handful" of people spoiled their ballots. In my view, a handful is four or five, which again is 4 or 5 per cent. In both cases, Cragg Ross Dawson underrated the importance of that level of spoilage, because it used such a small sample in the first place. That was not pursued by either the Scottish Executive or the Electoral Commission, because Cragg Ross Dawson did not express a high level of concern about it.
But, presumably, Cragg Ross Dawson used that size of sample because that is what it was resourced for and commissioned to do. In fairness to Cragg Ross Dawson, it might not have appreciated that the result was statistically significant, as opposed to statistically insignificant, because it did not have enough numbers to work with. Is that fair?
I would not presume to try to figure out Cragg Ross Dawson's rationale, or whether it was contracted to take a sample of only 100 people or whether that was its decision. My understanding is that, from a statistical point of view, 100 people is a reasonable sample. If that is the case, the rejection rate should be a reasonable area for concern. I cannot out-guess Cragg Ross Dawson's thoughts.
So, you think that the rejection rate, even based on the sample that was used, should have been given more prominence in the findings of the research reports and that those who received the reports should have paid more attention to it.
Certainly, in considering the papers for the Scottish Parliament elections—I know that the rejection figure was 4 per cent—the Electoral Commission, which is supposedly a professional organisation, should have said immediately, "There is something wrong here. We'd better take a closer look." From that point of view, the Electoral Commission was remiss. As I said, I do not have the exact figures for the local elections. However, it is a matter of concern in either case.
Thank you for joining us, Mr Gould. Will you comment further on the potential benefits for the local elections of decoupling local and national elections? It has been suggested in some quarters that if the two elections were decoupled, the argument for having both elections administered by the same Government would lose strength. Do you think that the other side to the argument is that, depending on what electoral cycle is chosen, the potential for one election to catch up with the other, or for extraordinary general elections—not that we plan to have any imminently—to intervene means that the two elections could clash? Does that add strength to the argument for the simplicity of having two elections administered by one Parliament or Government?
Let me give an answer in two segments. First, the main reason that I recommended decoupling the elections was to give deserved recognition to the importance of local government elections. Technically and operationally, decoupling is not necessary; with some modifications to approach and management, the two elections could be run smoothly and without the major problems that were encountered this time. There are options for that. However, holding an election is not just about getting the vote out of the way; it is about getting the message across. I do not believe that the local government message can get across when the local government elections are competing with the parliamentary elections.
You say that Scottish elections cannot be run from London. Does that apply to legislation as much as to administration? In principle, would it help if returning officers did not attempt to serve two masters?
I do not want to get into the political aspects. What is important in electoral management and operations is communication and consultation, as was the case for the 2007 elections, on which close consultation and co-operation took place between the two Governments that were involved. That is essential for the future. Devolution—the transfer of legislative authority—is for negotiators on both sides to work out in deciding what is in Scotland's best interests.
I seek further clarification of points that have been made. Decoupling could have unintended consequences. When you made the recommendation on decoupling, was its impact on voter turnout considered? I understand that we do not know exactly what would happen, but we know that local government elections had a lower turnout historically and that they have benefited from being combined with an election that attracts a higher turnout.
The voter turnout question dogs almost every jurisdiction—voter turnout has dropped pretty well worldwide. My feeling about voter turnout concerns quality versus quantity. If people do not want to vote, and if they do not feel that the issues, the candidates or the parties are important, how important is it that the number of voters keeps going up?
Thank you—we will have an interesting debate on compulsory voting and how a two-year gap between elections could be ensured. Currently, that would allow local government a six-year term, which would be unprecedented. Is there any way in which we could manage that?
I suggested the two-year gap to avoid voter fatigue, but the gap could be one year, three years, a month or two days. The present situation of local government needs to be taken into account. Will it have a two-year term or a six-year term, or a seven-year term or a three-year term? There are all sorts of permutations and combinations regarding the transition. As I understand it, the parliamentary elections are pretty well fixed at the moment. In the report, I have thrown out a number of considerations and options recognising that the reality must be dealt with locally, not in a review report.
There is a concern that, in terms of the STV vote for local government, the threefold increase in failed ballot papers could be the tip of the iceberg. Some of us are concerned that the system might have masked the level of failure in that ballot. You and your inquiry team had access to those ballot papers. Has any work been done to establish patterns that would reveal underlying problems to do with an unidentified failure arising from people not understanding what to do? Papers with one X went through the system, but that would not be publicly indicated as a failure.
On the STV ballot, the review examined only the face of the rejected ballot images. We have no statistics or information concerning any valid ballot. Of course, any voter who placed one X on an STV ballot had a valid ballot paper, so that would not appear in our analysis.
I think that the actual level of confusion in both elections was masked by the fact that there were officers from each local authority in the polling places to advise people. I am concerned that, if those officials had not been there, the level of confusion among voters would have been significantly higher. My understanding is that the percentage of spoiled ballot papers in STV elections in Northern Ireland, which has had the system for a number of years, is routinely in the order of 3 per cent.
I believe that the involvement of council staff was highly important and that they played a key role in supporting the returning officers in virtually every case. I continue to argue that council involvement with and support of the returning officer, whether he or she be full time or otherwise, is essential.
Several months before May's ballot, several other members and I took part in a trial for electronic counting. As the system was new to Scotland, we queried certain issues, but the trial, on the whole, seemed to be successful. However, despite assurances that it had worked well elsewhere, the system in most areas ground to a halt on the night and did not cope at all well with the volume of votes that it had to deal with. In your view, what were the main problems with the e-counting process, how should they be addressed, and should votes in future be carried out electronically?
On your last question, under STV, applying the formulas for allotting seats is a very complex business and you would not want to have the kind of manual counting system that they have in Northern Ireland, where the form of STV that is used is much less complex than the one that is used in Scotland. As far as STV is concerned, electronic counting is important as it can allow results to be arrived at much more smoothly and quickly than any manual count can manage.
In our examination of the process, we have not so far acknowledged the obvious disadvantage that arose from the fact that one X on the local election ballot paper did not constitute a spoiled ballot whereas three Xs did. It seems to me straightforward that that resulted in a disadvantage to those parties that put up more than one candidate in any ward. Will further work be done on that issue? Do you accept that more problems arose than have been revealed by the number of spoiled ballot papers because candidates were at a disadvantage if their party put up more than one candidate? I would welcome your comments on that.
I said that voters were an afterthought, but so were the information officers. They were a last-minute desperate attempt to try to resolve the problem of lack of voter information and education, especially on how the ballots should be marked. As a result, voter information officers were not appointed according to standard criteria. That is one of the recommendations in the report. As a result of their wide variety in age and competence, the role that information officers played varied from invaluable to non-existent, according to the reports that we received. The information officer can definitely play an extremely important role in remedying the problems that arose this time round.
You have spoken about challenges that we have to deliver on. You spoke earlier about having a chief returning officer for Scotland and the professionalisation of the 32 returning officers. You have said that the system cannot be run from Northern Ireland, Wales or London; you said that it should be run from Scotland. You were careful not to delve into politics, and I want to ask you your opinion as an independent, non-partisan academic.
Yes. Let me move back for a moment. Earlier, I separated out the management of the election from the legislative responsibility for it. On the management of the election, I would argue strongly, for operational, academic, political or whatever other reasons, that one management team should be located in Scotland and should manage the election from there.
You said at the beginning that you did not want blame to be attached. I think that that is appropriate. What do you believe the balance of responsibility between ministers and political parties should be for future elections? Do you accept the analogy that my colleagues have drawn that it is about as sensible to run a Scottish parliamentary election from London as it is to run a Canadian election from Washington?
For many years, while I was deputy head of elections for Elections Canada, I also chaired a political parties committee. Election managers are often accused of a lack of political sensitivity, and I agree with that. It is critical that there is a continuing input and a flow of communication between the parties' representatives, wherever they may be located, and the chief returning officer or whoever else is managing the elections. When I talked about not micromanaging, I was referring more to the legislation. With regard to the decisions by election managers that have an impact on political parties, the parties need to bring the political reality to the administrators and say, "If you make that decision, this is what the impact is going to be—it is not a realistic decision." The parties are critical in every step of the process—I will leave it at that.
As the convener, I have the privilege of asking the last question—I think that I have just established that precedent. It is 16 minutes past 2 now, and we assured you that we would be finishing around that time. I opened the session by reading out your words, and it is important that I also close on that. There is a big challenge for politicians in Scotland. You reminded us of that by stating:
I hope that there will be some sort of a mechanism—a committee or round-table—to examine each of the aspects of the election. For example, there was a huge debate over the design of both the local election and the parliamentary ballots. It is important that the parties play a role in that, but the various options for party preferences need to be clearly defined, as does the rationale for why the party feels that candidates should be grouped this way or that. That needs to be linked to whether it is technically possible—if we assume that there is an electronic count—to do that on a ballot. If it is, the impact on the electorate must also be considered—does the voter find it easy to understand, or do they find it more logical to approach the paper by candidates and not groupings? That is where the intensive work needs to be done.
Thank you for all the time that you have given us today. We ask you to pass our thanks to the University of Ottawa, which has helped us to facilitate the sessions. We found the session worth while, and we hope that you have a safe journey home.
Thank you—it has been a pleasure for me. If there is anything that I can do to assist the committee or to support its work, please do not hesitate to let me know.
We welcome that offer.
Meeting closed at 14:20.