Growth in disability benefit caseload and spending
Analysis of caseload indicates the number of people in receipt of disability benefits has risen across the UK in recent years. In Scotland, between 2020 and 2030, the number of people getting disability benefits is forecast to increase by 81%, from 575,000 to just over one million.SPICe prepared meeting papers for 25 September 2025, page 11
While the reasons for this are not fully understood, the SFC have said the Scottish Government's administration of ADP is contributing to the figures in Scotland, which are higher than in England and Wales, despite eligibility criteria being "largely aligned".Pre-Budget Scrutiny – SPICe prepared Call for Views Summary
The SFC went into detail about the Scottish Government's approach in its August 2025 Fiscal UpdateSFC Fiscal Update – August 2025—
This approach includes support for people through the application process, increased promotion of the payment to increase take-up, and the process for award reviews resulting in a smaller share of people no longer receiving the payment.Pre-Budget Scrutiny – SPICe prepared Call for Views Summary
As a result of the increased caseload, the SFC explained that Scottish Government spend on ADP is projected to jump from £3.6bn in 2025-26 to £5.4bn in 2030-31.SFC Fiscal Update – August 2025
In relation to this, Age Scotland made the point that this increase should not necessarily be viewed as "overspending", and that it is instead "just spending based on what the criteria are", and is designed to fulfil intended outcomes.The Social Justice and Social Security Committee.