See www.lobbying.scot St Andrew’s House, Regent Road, Edinburgh EH1 3DG www.gov.scot Where we are Today Emissions by Sector 2022, MTCO2e 20.0 Scottish Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1990 to 2022 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 -5.0 -10.0 -15.0 -20.0 % of positive Top Ten Emissions Sources MT CO2e, 2022 emissions Peat 6.26 11% Cropland 5.81 11% • Emissions have fallen by a half since 1990 Cars 5.02 9% Livestock 4.76 9% • Around 41 % of total emissions reductions Residential heating 4.75 9% 1990-2022 have come from Energy Supply Industrial Combustion 2.44 4% • We have missed five of the last six annual Chemical industry 2.14 4% targets Oil refining and terminal 2.09 4% Maritime transport 1.99 4% Light Good Vehicles 1.87 3% Total 37.13 67% 1 Why the Targets Need to Change March 2024 advice from CCC: • Scotland’s 2030 climate goal is unreachable • 75% by 2030 would require a nine-fold increase in decarbonisation • “the required acceleration in emissions reduction in Scotland is now beyond what is credible” CCC advice confirms SG’s own assessment: • Even the best-case most-optimistic scenario with current and planned policies cannot meet targets 2025-2030 • Assessment of likely UKG policies made little impact on expected shortfall, made worse by UKG rowbacks • Assessment of SGP and SCCS proposals indicates some areas for further exploration for longer term It is clear that: • Existing targets cannot not be met • Having unreachable targets is counterproductive and disrupts meaningful planning • Five-year budgets provide a more useful planning tool that is better aligned with the real world of decarbonisation 2 Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Bill: Background • Earlier this year, the Climate Change Committee advised that Scotland's interim emissions target for 2030 is beyond what can be achieved. • This built upon repeated advice from the CCC that our 2030 target will be extremely challenging. • In April, we announced that we will bring forward legislation in response to this advice. • We are seeking to amend our target framework and introduce five-yearly carbon budgets.