Chamber and committees

The costs of global failure to address the climate emergency would be enormous and the Scottish Government is committed to leading the way in delivering early action to reduce emissions while at the same time positioning Scotland to secure and share the opportunities from the transition. The next Climate Change Plan, a draft of which will be published next year, will include costs of delivering emissions reductions to meet the statutory targets between 2025 and 2040. The Scottish Government has not set out a pathway to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2045 and hence does not yet have a basis for a cost assessment of achieving that goal. The Climate Change Committee suggest “the net costs of the transition (including upfront investment, ongoing running costs and costs of financing) will be less than 1% of GDP over the entirety of 2020-2050”. We believe this is a reasonable estimate while noting that the cost totals and profile for Scotland may differ due to our stricter statutory targets and the likelihood that our pathway to net zero may diverge from that taken by the UK as a whole.

Following the clearing announcement on the 22 August 2022, the ScotWindleasing round has identified 20 offshore wind projects with a potential overall capacity of 27.6GW. Based on the Supply Chain Development Statements (SCDS) submitted with the leasing applications, developers have committed to invest around £1.4bn per project.

Before construction, these projects will go through project development and consenting processes, respond to geographical and technological requirements, and find a route to market. For this reason, it is not possible to have a clear indication at this time of what will be constructed and the combined generating capacity.

The Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy (SMP-OWE) assessed a potential generation figure of 10GW and therefore does not comment on additional generation or impacts. The SMP-OWEis subject to an Iterative Plan Review (IPR) process, which allows Scottish Government to review the conclusions of the Plan against new available information. Through the IPR process we will consider the impacts of the new potential generation figure of 27.6GW.

Scotland has a varied building stock, with many different ages and types of properties. Homes are built with various levels of insulation, with many having altered the building fabric since construction (for example by installing double glazing). This makes defining a ‘non-retrofitted home’ challenging. The most consistent approach to comparing the running cost of a heat pump to the running cost of a gas boiler is to compare the relative cost of heat from each system, taking into account their differing efficiencies.

Under the recently announced Energy Price Guarantee, the unit rate of gas for the average consumer is 10.3 p/kWh, compared to 34.0 p/kWh for electricity. While estimates of the energy efficiency of heat pumps vary, air source heat pumps are typically considered to be two to three times more efficient than gas boilers. Therefore, we estimate broadly that a home with the average heat demand would face an estimated annual cost of around £1,900 using a gas boiler, compared to around £2,000 using an air source heat pump. This estimate is illustrative and subject to uncertainty. It is based on average household demand for heat and varies in line with assumed levels of gas and electricity prices, as well as the assumed efficiencies of the respective heating systems.

The Heat in Buildings Strategy proposes to set minimum energy efficiency standards alongside heating system change, so that the energy efficiency of our housing stock will be improved ahead of, or in tandem with, a zero direct emissions heating system being installed. This approach will reduce the running cost of zero direct emissions heating systems, such as heat pumps. We therefore don’t expect that heat pumps will be installed in properties unless the energy efficiency is at an appropriate level, which is currently being developed through external research.

Electricity policy and regulation is reserved to the UK Government. The Scottish Government is calling on the UK Government to take urgent action to rebalance gas and electricity prices such that the running costs of zero direct emission heating systems are more favourable compared with fossil fuel incumbents.

The decision to bring ScotRail under public control avoided the need to run an expensive and inappropriate rail franchising competition. Though widely acknowledged as a failed model, franchise competitions remain the preferred approach in current UK Legislation. Such exercises typically cost in excess of £10m for franchising authorities, as well as the similarly significant costs of each bidder.

As confirmed during my Net Zero, Energy and Transport Committee appearance on 15 March 2022, prior to that date, since the decision to proceed with the “Operator of Last Resort” (OLR) option was taken in March 2021, £3.6 million had been spent on the OLR activity.

Final reconciliation figures confirm that £5.5 million has been spent in total on OLR activity, and ScotRail Trains Ltd. was mobilised successfully on 1 April. I am confident you will notice the saving this achieved when compared with a franchising competition.

The Scottish Government does not hold the details of ScotRail expenditure broken down by the categories you have requested.

The Scottish Government budget for Rail Passenger Services, which covers both ScotRail and Caledonian Sleeper, has been published as :

2016  £266m

2017  £311m

2018  £183m

2019  £150m

2020  £239m

2021  £370m

2022  £407m

The latest available information on the number of people convicted for ‘stalking offences’ is provided in the following table.

Number of people proceeded and convicted for stalking offences (where main crime) in Scottish courts, 2018-19 to 2020-21.

The Robert Gordon University report – Making the Switch, funded through the North-East Economic Recovery and Skills Fund (NEERSF), estimates between 70,000 and 80,000 people are directly and indirectly employed in the offshore energy sector in Scotland, with around 65% working or based in the North East.

This report highlights over 90% of the workforce has medium to high skills transferability between adjacent energy sectors, such as offshore wind, the use of hydrogen and carbon capture and storage. This indicates the North East is well placed to capitalise on the opportunities associated with the energy transition and could become either a UK or Global Energy Hub, with the expected result of the energy workforce remaining broadly stable or increasing by 2030.

The Scottish Government is supporting this transition from the oil and gas sector to renewables and low carbon through a number of programmes, including, but not limited to, the £75 million Energy Transition Fund and our £500 million Just Transition Fund for the North East and Moray.

The Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan is key to ensuring everyone can benefit from the opportunities a Just Transition can create, whether the requirement is to improve on existing skills or retrain to a new or emerging green job.

The application window for the first year of the Just Transition Fund closed on 15 July 2022, with a total of 102 proposals received.

The Fund was advertised through the Scottish Government’s website and social media platforms, as well as through local partners, including: Aberdeenshire Council, Moray Council; Aberdeen City Council; Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce; Moray Chamber of Commerce; and the Just Transition Partnership. The Fund was also advertised through the ‘Find Business Support’ portal.

Applicants were notified about the outcome of their proposals on 6 September 2022, but the full list of projects won’t be published until after the mourning period following the passing of Her Majesty The Queen.

Scottish Government officials assess whether each bidding organisation to the Just Transition Fund is “headquartered, or demonstrate[s] a strong connection to at least one of Aberdeenshire, Aberdeen City or Moray". Only proposals that meet this criteria are considered for funding.

Aberdeenshire Council, Moray Council and Aberdeen City Council were all able to bid into the fund. They can count as the partner that is based or has operations in the region, however that is not mandatory and any private organisation can be considered as the local partner organisation.

The Scottish Government provides grant in aid funding to the Scottish Police Authority (SPA), as outlined in the Annual Budget Bills. In 2022-23 this funding totals over £1.3 billion. It is for the SPA and the Chief Constable to allocate this funding to policing priorities at a national and local level, and to also support the delivery of the Joint Strategy on Policing.

The Scottish Government has not provided any additional funding to Police Scotland specifically in support of stalking and harassment offences in the time period 2018-19 to 2022-23.