Chamber and committees

Throughout consideration of the options for Scotland’s Census, National Records of Scotland (NRS) engaged with colleagues in the Office of National Statistics (ONS) who are responsible for conducting the England and Wales Census, and with the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) who are responsible for conducting the census in Northern Ireland. Each of the census authorities have had to consider the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their plans for their respective censuses.

The UK Government and devolved administrations were informed of the decision to move Scotland’s Census to 2022 by myself on 17 July 2020.

The date of the next Census will be decided in due course by Ministers and the Scottish Parliament. National Records of Scotland’s evaluation of Scotland’s Census 2022 will make recommendations for future censuses.

The priority and responsibility of National Records of Scotland (NRS) is to put in place a census that enables everyone across Scotland to participate, so that information collected can be used to produce the high quality outputs and deliver the benefits required by the people of Scotland.

Ensuring that all of Scotland can take part in the census is vital. Moving the date of the census to March 2022 provides the best opportunity to do that and ensure a high response rate. A high response rate will mean that the data gathered is of the quality necessary to enable it to be confidently used to inform funding decisions, policy and planning at all levels.

There are existing measures to meet the needs of data users between censuses. NRS will work closely with the Office of National Statistics and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency to minimise the impact on UK data coherence to ensure that high quality data is available to inform policy, investment decisions and the planning of services that affect Scotland and the rest of the UK. NRS will also continue to work with stakeholders and partners to support the needs of data users for the period until the results from Scotland’s Census are available.

The decision to delay Census delivery in light of the COVID-19 impact has been taken to ensure maximum value for money. That means securing the maximum benefits from the Census for the overall investment.

The concern surrounding the impact on National Record of Scotland’s ability to engage with communities locally to enhance response rates due to COVID-19 meant that the benefits and value for money would be significantly impacted without moving the census to 2022.

Moving the Census to 2022 allows NRS to benefit from the work that has already been progressed. While running the census programme for another year will increase costs marginally, NRS will continue to work closely with Scottish Government and others to more fully model costs and ensure value for money.

National Records of Scotland has been monitoring the impact of COVID-19 since the beginning of the pandemic. The Scottish Government took the decision to move Scotland’s Census to 2022 in July 2020. This was based on advice from National Records of Scotland following their review of the impact of COVID-19 on the risks to delivering a Census in 2021.

Planning for Scotland’s Census 2022 is well underway. Testing of the systems and processes will commence in the coming months.

National Records of Scotland (NRS) considered a range of options that had the potential to preserve the 2021 census date. All of these options however involved significant change to the design of the census, reducing scope. A summary of the options appraisal work undertaken by NRS to inform their recommendation can be found here . While these would have preserved the census date each was judged as highly likely to result in significant reductions in response rates and the quality of the census data.

NRS consider that a response rate of at least 90% needs to be achieved to enable the delivery of high quality census outputs. For example, the response rate for Census 2011 was 94%. Achieving such uniquely high compliance is dependent on advanced publicity and marketing, the use of field based staff, extensive engagement with a range of community and specialist interest groups and considerable preparatory work with a range of bodies including Local Government and the NHS. A number of these activities have been delayed or impacted due to covid, not only within NRS but also across a range of partners.

NRS’s conclusion was that the only option around which there is confidence of securing the high level of response rate required was moving the date of the census to March 2022. Other options, that preserved the March 2021 date, had an estimated response rate that fell between 60% - 80%.

Based on this work NRS recommended to Scottish Ministers to move Scotland’s Census to 2022. The priority for NRS and the Scottish Government is to deliver Scottish Census outputs to the quality required by users. The Scottish Government agreed with NRS’s recommendation that a delay of one year provides the best opportunity to do this.

Throughout consideration of the options for Scotland’s Census, National Records of Scotland (NRS) engaged with colleagues in the Office of National Statistics (ONS) who are responsible for conducting the England and Wales Census, and with the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) who are responsible for conducting the census in Northern Ireland. Each of the census authorities have had to consider the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their plans for their respective censuses.

Scottish Government have made the decision to move Scotland’s Census to 2022 as this is the only option in which there is confidence of producing high quality outputs and deliver the benefits required by the people of Scotland.

The Census is typically held in March and it is important for statistical reasons to capture data at the same time of the year for comparison purposes with previous results. Delaying the Census by six months (for example, to September 2021) would mean two factors had changed for Scotland’s Census – a different time of year as well as a delay of six months.

The Fund aims to remove the threat of insolvency prior to the end of March 2021; allow for specialist/core staff to return from furlough or avoid redundancy to work on future sustainability plans; and increase the opportunities for commissioning and employment of freelance artists and creative practitioners. Details of how the fund will operate will be published by Creative Scotland and funding made available as soon as practicable.