Chamber and committees

The estimates of grey seal populations in Scottish waters from 1984-98 shown in the table below are based on annual surveys of breeding colonies in the Outer Hebrides, Inner Hebrides, Orkney, the Isle of May and two English sites. The Scottish population figures have been arrived at by deducting the proportion of the population related to the two English sites. They are a consistent series calculated from a model that derives estimates of pup production from aerial survey counts and a model that estimates the size of the population required to produce these pups. An estimated additional 8,900 animals are associated with breeding sites that are not surveyed annually.

Pup surveys prior to 1984 did not include the Inner Hebrides. For these years, in the table below, the population estimates given are the product of the pup production estimate for the surveyed areas and the mean ratio of total population to pup production for these same areas from 1984 to 1998.

Year	Estimated Scottish Population to the Nearest 500 animals (aged 1 year and over)		Year	Estimated Scottish population to the Nearest 500 animals (aged 1 year and over)
1970	29,000		1986	47,500
1971-1973	No Surveys		1987	50,500
1974	32,000		1988	54,500
1975	34,000		1989	58,000
1976	35,500		1990	61,500
1977	No Survey		1991	65,000
1978	33,500		1992	69,000
1979	36,500		1993	73,500
1980	42,500		1994	78,500
1981	44,000		1995	83,500
1982	44,000		1996	89,500
1983	No Survey		1997	95,000
1984	41,500		1998	101,500
1985	44,500

Predictions about future population size are very difficult to make and are dependent on a number of assumptions. Two alternative predictions for grey seal numbers over the next five years are contained in the report Scientific Advice on Matters Related to the Management of Seal Populations: 1999, a copy of which is held in SPICe. Because of uncertainty about future changes in pup production, it is not meaningful to predict population size any further into the future than this.

Surveys of common seals between 1974 and 1980 were carried out from boats during the breeding season (June/July). Surveys since 1988 were by helicopter using a thermal imaging camera and were carried out during the August moult when the greatest and most consistent numbers of seals are thought to haul out. The numbers in the table below are counts of seals hauled out on land and represent minimum estimates of the population. A significant proportion of common seals will be at sea even during this period and it is therefore much more difficult to be precise about the total population based on these minimum figures.

Year
1974-1980 (Boat survey)	1988-1994 (Helicopter)	1996-1997 (Helicopter)
Adults Pups	Adults	Adults
9,328 1,495	26,667	29,600

The increases between boat and helicopter survey results are partly due to the extension of the area surveyed by helicopter (successive surveys have covered larger areas), partly due to the change in methodology (up to twice as many seals may be detected when surveying by helicopter compared with boats), partly due to the different timing of surveys (seals spend more time hauled out during the August moult than during the June/July breeding season), and presumably also partly as a result of the cessation of harvesting, particularly in Shetland and Orkney. At present, we cannot say how the trend in numbers counted at haul-out sites relates to trends in population size.

The total Scottish population cannot be estimated accurately but is currently thought to be between 43,000-52,000 animals. There is insufficient information to allow future predictions of numbers of common seals to be made.

The Scottish Executive recently commissioned a research project entitled A Comparative Evaluation of Greenways and Conventional Bus Lanes. This research focuses on bus corridors in Edinburgh and includes a section on Business Frontage Interviews. The project was concluded recently and its findings should be published later in the spring. A copy will be placed in SPICe.

I understand that Glasgow City Council have carried out studies on the effect of bus lanes on the Victoria Road/Gorbals Street bus corridor. This involved a survey of public opinion and before and after surveys of retail unit occupancy.

This information is not held centrally.

There is a very wide range of public sector organisations in Scotland, with very varied functions and responsibilities. This is reflected in a similarly broad range of pay arrangements for management, staff and other public sector appointments. It would therefore be wholly inappropriate, and indeed bad policy and management practice, to attempt to link all senior public sector pay to a single salary point.

Under the Code of Practice on Access to Scottish Executive Information, information will be disclosed unless the harm likely to arise from disclosure would outweigh the public interest in making the information available. In this case, the public interest in disclosure is outweighed by the harm which would be caused to the frankness and candour of internal discussion, including discussions between the Scottish Executive and the UK Government.

National Parks will be funded by grants from central Government.Scottish Natural Heritage's advice to government on National Parks, published in 1999, contained estimates of costs (in current terms) of national parks in Loch Lomond and the Trossachs and the Cairngorms. We will consider the levels of grant necessary in the context of the Executive's spending plans for the period in question.

The procedure set out in section 2 will include many variables. These include the Reporter's time, local authority input, costs of a PLI, if necessary and publication of the report by Scottish Ministers amongst others. Our best estimates are that this type of expenditure, for both areas, will be in the region of £100,000.

National Park authorities will receive their core funding from central Government. The draft National Parks (Scotland) Bill provides for the possibility of National Park authorities seeking loans, if necessary. National Park authorities will be able to raise additional money through other sources such as Lottery Funds, European Union funding and commercial activity.

We are reviewing all points raised in respect of the consultation exercise recently carried out on the draft National Parks Bill. The consultation period ended on 3 March 2000 and all points will be considered prior to the Bill being introduced to Parliament. The Bill as currently drafted requires members to have knowledge or experience relevant to the functions of the National Park authority or the National Park, but does not require direct elections.

It will be for National Park authorities to decide with whom they wish to enter into management agreements, and what financial arrangements these will include.