Official Report: search what was said in Parliament
The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.
All Official Reports of meetings in the Debating Chamber of the Scottish Parliament.
All Official Reports of public meetings of committees.
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Public Audit Committee
“Decarbonising heat in homes”
Meeting date: 29 February 2024
Jamie Greene
Thank you. I appreciate that we are out of time, convener, so I will park my other questions.
Public Audit Committee
Section 22 Report: “The 2022/23 audit of NHS Forth Valley”
Meeting date: 29 February 2024
Jamie Greene
That is fine. My parting question is for Ms McCusker. It is your last day in the job as chair. What would your advice be to the incoming chair?
Public Audit Committee
“Decarbonising heat in homes”
Meeting date: 29 February 2024
Jamie Greene
It is interesting that you talked about the various incarnations of the work in this area. Following the days when solar panels on roofs were the big thing, people were told, “We’ll come and insulate your home. There are some grants available for that, and you can top it up yourself.” We are now talking about a root-and-branch approach, which involves people taking out their current heating system and replacing it with new technologies, yet most people probably do not understand what those technologies are. Does that open up any risk of increased exposure to rogue companies, scams, fake grant scenarios, misleading advice being given to consumers and so on? Should the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets pay attention to that?
Public Audit Committee
Administration of Scottish Income Tax 2022-23
Meeting date: 22 February 2024
Jamie Greene
I have been thrown in at the deep end. Thank you, convener, and good morning to our panel.
Before I move on to my line of questioning, I might just conclude the previous one. We have had a bit of discussion about the variance in outturns versus forecasts. That flags a concern to me with the 2022-23 estimation from HMRC of £14.9 billion and what variance we might see in that outturn. Surely there can only be one data set at the core of all this. No matter who you speak to—the Fiscal Commission, analysts, policy makers or HMRC—I presume that they are not using different data sources, so a robust set of data that can help to produce the forecasts must sit at their core. Given the huge variance in outturns this year, can we be confident that the data set and the analysis of it are sufficiently robust for policy makers and analysts to produce the forecasts that affect decisions about tax rates, for example?
Public Audit Committee
Administration of Scottish Income Tax 2022-23
Meeting date: 22 February 2024
Jamie Greene
Specifically and in comparison, is it possible to quantify that underperformance in numerical terms?
Public Audit Committee
Administration of Scottish Income Tax 2022-23
Meeting date: 22 February 2024
Jamie Greene
I suspect that one of the biggest areas of interest, and perhaps concern, on the part not just of the committee but of the Government relates to the effect of tax divergence—Scotland having differential rates compared with the rest of the UK.
You state that, broadly, historically speaking, there has been little divergence, but that it has increased for this tax year and that it might increase in future tax years. The known unknown is what effect that will have on people’s behaviour and how it will affect the tax base and the resulting tax take.
What work has Audit Scotland or the NAO done on understanding how any such behavioural impact will affect the final outturn numbers? What are the risks? How high or low are they?
Public Audit Committee
Administration of Scottish Income Tax 2022-23
Meeting date: 22 February 2024
Jamie Greene
We know what some of the risks are, as they are well documented and are talked about often. However, quantifying those risks will be difficult until we see what people start doing with their money. Let us take, for example, the scenario of a person who earns £50,000. Such a person would pay 20 per cent more tax in Scotland than they would do elsewhere in the UK, which is a substantial difference. The number of people who are affected in that way must be easy to find out, but it might be more difficult to forecast what they might do. I guess that that is part of the problem. One presumes that, if there is a huge shift in behaviour, that will affect future budgets and how much money is available to the Government. Is that fair to say? Is that a risk in how we forecast budgets?
Public Audit Committee
Interests
Meeting date: 22 February 2024
Jamie Greene
Thank you, convener, and good morning, colleagues. I have no relevant interests to declare.
Public Audit Committee
Deputy Convener
Meeting date: 22 February 2024
Jamie Greene
Thank you. I, too, look forward to it.
Public Audit Committee
Administration of Scottish Income Tax 2022-23
Meeting date: 22 February 2024
Jamie Greene
I will perhaps come on to that volatility. Your opening comments—repeated in the opening paragraphs of your report—gave quite a broad-brush overview in using phrases such as “continuing economic uncertainty”, “tax policy divergence”, “weaker economic performance”, and so on. Those are quite generic terms. What specific work has Audit Scotland done on the root causes of why that figure of £390 million was so vast?
