Chamber and committees

That is one possible driver. We work hard to make sure that people are claiming the benefit, but underclaiming could be an issue. However, assuming that all else is equal, it would indicate that fewer people are in need of the benefit, which, as you say, would be a positive thing.

Are you asking why it is not a round number?

Good morning.

As we approach the end of the financial year, the Scottish Government is, once again, on track to balance its budget. That demonstrates our robust in-year financial management practices. The spring budget revision allocates £600 million of additional funding to support our vital public services. More than £100 million is provided to the health service, while the economy and Gaelic, housing, transport, and education and skills portfolios all receive additional funding to support services.

In line with our robust practices, we continue to set aside contingency funding, which is required annually, to support any year-end audit adjustments as well as to guard against any final changes in 2025-26 forecasts. Those funding additions are offset by a reduction in social security benefit expenditure, £100 million of forecast European structural funds income and slippage in capital projects, as well as a £350 million technical adjustment relating to police and fire pensions.

The funding position has also been updated to reflect the latest forecasts and figures. Planned capital borrowing and ScotWind utilisation have been revised down and align to the position that the Cabinet Secretary for Finance and Local Government set out in the 2026-27 Scottish budget. There remain wider financial challenges that have required to be navigated in recent years. As part of the 2025-26 budget, we had to consider carefully how best to support the 2026-27 budget, with a £150 million underspend assumption.

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The technical, Whitehall and internal transfers are presented in the document in the usual way. The supporting document to the spring budget revision and the finance update prepared by my officials provide further background on the net changes as well as updates on information that was requested by the committee.

I am happy to answer any questions that the committee may have.

I have a couple of points to make. First, these numbers originally come from the Scottish Fiscal Commission, which makes its assessment of what we need to put in the budget. That is the right way to do it—there is the independent assessment, and then we work within that.

Secondly, the numbers are big, but, in the context of the whole social security budget, it is about 3 per cent. However, you are right that, in relation to that specific benefit, it is a significant number in absolute terms, and, as you say, it is demand led. I am sure that there are many and various factors that drive that demand, and Social Security Scotland will respond to the applications and the demand side of the process.

On your comment about being stricter, it is important to recognise that certain numbers are quoted in this regard—it is not my portfolio, so I am not across all the detail of it—but a lot of the original assessment was based on individuals who were transferred from the UK system, who had already been through various checks. Therefore, when people talk about a very small number being changed following on from that, it is important to recognise that those individuals had already been through the UK process.

Social Security Scotland prides itself on its dignity and fairness approach, but I am conscious that it is looking after public money, so all of that needs to be treated in the round.

I do not have all the detail on that, but I can get back to you if there are specifics that you want more information on. Clearly, there will be big projects in there, and for capital projects you make the projection of what you will spend and then, when you are in year, a period of time later, there will be variables that could affect that projection.

There will be things that will speed up and things that will slow down. There will always be movement, and, again, that is in the context of a significant capital budget overall.

There are a number of parts to that. For a start, there is extensive engagement with investors, led by the DFM, and I have given examples of how that is continuing apace. There is also the investment portal, where specific projects are identified, and obviously that is publicly available.

At the end of the day, we might want something done, but that does not necessarily mean that that is where investors want to put their money, and marrying those things up is a key part of the process. In any case, this is not free money that we are talking about—it comes at a cost. Yes, you can increase the amount of money that you have for capital investment in the here and now but, depending on how the deal is designed, there will be a payment to make in order to pay back that investment, and that might or might not make sense as we move into the future.

Follow the rules in that regard.

Yes—if I were an accountant, perhaps I could give you a more technical explanation.

Again, those are forecast numbers from the SFC. They will be based on a range of different factors and assumptions, and those assumptions could change. The eligibility for the Scottish child payment is driven largely by universal credit eligibility, as well by as a number of other factors. If people find themselves in a position where they are earning more than they thought they would, the claim will be less. As I say, a range of factors could affect the position.

As I said, the process is on-going. It is about working hard with investors, who can be anything from venture capitalists—we have talked about pension funds—to international investors, sovereign or otherwise. There is a whole range of partners that could be engaged with. The Deputy First Minister is just back from a trip to the Emirates, where there was extensive discussion with potential investors about things that it might be appropriate for them to invest in.

There are many different priorities. There are things that the Government would assess as priorities that require investment, and we are now going through a budget process in which Opposition parties are, to a lesser or greater extent, saying what their priorities are. However, the picture is complicated by how those priorities are married to what private investors think that their priorities are.