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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 14 January 2026
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Displaying 1396 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Subordinate Legislation

Meeting date: 11 November 2025

Ivan McKee

There are a number of points in response to that. Yes, we work in an environment where there is a fixed budget, which we need to balance—and it is not even a fixed budget, because it moves in-year, depending on consequentials. Even at this point, we do not know the final position for 2025-26, nor will we for a period of time yet. We are always trying to hit a moving target, but the money with which we have to hit it is also moving. We have to balance all that, which creates complexity. If we were in an environment where we knew the multiyear position from the UK Government, we would be able to lay out multiyear spending for various parts of the system.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Subordinate Legislation

Meeting date: 11 November 2025

Ivan McKee

As I said, we are trying to hit a moving target. There are a number of dimensions to it. There is demand-led stuff, which changes; there is what you have to spend, which also changes, depending on the consequentials—

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Subordinate Legislation

Meeting date: 11 November 2025

Ivan McKee

In terms of multiyear funding?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Subordinate Legislation

Meeting date: 11 November 2025

Ivan McKee

As you rightly say, a figure of £1 billion has been quoted, but that contains significant elements of non-cash items that are not relevant to day-to-day expenditure. The relevant figure is £556.7 million, which represents less than 1 per cent of the total budget of £63 billion. None of that money is lost to Scottish Government spending power. The underspend will allow us to support spending in this financial year.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Subordinate Legislation

Meeting date: 11 November 2025

Ivan McKee

That number had been increasing. Last year, the conversation was that we would receive more from LBTT. That is a prime example of where we are either higher or lower. There was perhaps an overcompensation. Historically, that number has increased significantly and, in most cases, it overshot the estimate. I will let officials talk to the extent to which the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s forecast is relevant. It was estimated that the number would continue to increase, but it did not quite increase to the expected level. Again, that is £40 million out of about £1 billion of LBTT in total, so it is within 3 or 4 per cent.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Subordinate Legislation

Meeting date: 11 November 2025

Ivan McKee

There is a lot of complexity in the housing market. The LBTT numbers, which are a function of house prices and the number of transactions, have been increasing strongly over a number of years. This year, the numbers have not quite met the target, based on previous years’ growth. House price inflation is running ahead of general inflation and there is clearly demand in the system, which is driving both the requirement to increase completions and the work that my colleague Màiri McAllan is taking forward. Reflecting on those numbers, what you are seeing is a housing market that is still active and generating returns. However, we need to consider all that in the round, because house price inflation is good in one sense but not necessarily in another. For example, if you are trying to get on to the property ladder, the market could be too hot. However, considering where we are now, we have seen growth, which, for a number of years, has been stronger than expected. That is reflected in the LBTT numbers.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Subordinate Legislation

Meeting date: 11 November 2025

Ivan McKee

The cost runs into hundreds of millions. The total cost is around £700 million, and the UK Government has paid roughly half of that. As for the rest of it, I think that we paid 60 per cent in many cases; I will check the exact numbers. The Scottish Government has made transfers to support portfolios, but you are absolutely right that the pain caused by that has been shared. The Scottish Government is putting in funds where we can to provide support for that to a significant degree, but those funds do not cover all the costs for all parts of the public sector, due to the scale of the impact.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Subordinate Legislation

Meeting date: 11 November 2025

Ivan McKee

It means that the cost that it had estimated is not all being spent in a particular year. We will never be able to judge in advance exactly what the cost profile might be. Things will change throughout the year for a number of reasons. As a consequence of that, as you know, we regularly see a capital position in which not all the capital budget has been spent in that year.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Subordinate Legislation

Meeting date: 11 November 2025

Ivan McKee

If it is helpful, we can come back with a more detailed explanation of how this flows through, but the bottom line is that on paper the number is moving but, in reality, that does not have a day-to-day impact on the Scottish budget. That is a function of a number of factors, including how the UK Government treats it.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Subordinate Legislation

Meeting date: 11 November 2025

Ivan McKee

The concern would be to get the spending on a demand-led service within 5 or 6 per cent of the budget. I suggest that that would a reasonable projection.