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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Session 6: 13 May 2021 to 8 April 2026
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Displaying 3697 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

Are you still committed to the limit that was put in place by, I think, John Swinney a while ago about how much of the Scottish budget should go towards repaying capital or interest payments?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

And the only cost would be the interest. When I saw it, I immediately got a bit worried about private finance initiatives and public-private partnerships.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

That is great—thank you.

I notice that, in the medium-term financial strategy, you specifically say:

“For the first time we are also presenting information on ... contingent liabilities”.

The committee has previously raised questions about the cumulative effect of such liabilities. I was just interested to see that sentence in the document, and I wondered whether that meant that the Government was a bit concerned that such contingent liabilities were getting quite big now. Normally, we in the committee talk about them secretly, but obviously they are out in the public domain here.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

And housing would fall into that category.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

Okay. Despite my knowledge of statistics, I am struggling at this point to get all those percentages, but I get the general point.

I know that you cannot go into the political side but, from the technical side, if, as you have all suggested, things are becoming more volatile—or, at least, we have more risk because Scotland now has more responsibility for a whole range of things—is there a technical argument that the £600 million or £700 million reserve should be increased? Can you answer that without going into the political space?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

If it comes down, that is good, but if it goes up, that is a problem. That leads me on to Professor Breedon’s comment that larger negative or positive reconciliations could become more likely. I read in paragraph 3.22 on page 25 of the fiscal update about the

“24 per cent chance of a negative reconciliation exceeding £600 million”.

Will you explain that to me a little bit? Is that just a random statistical thing?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

But there might be something about front-line services.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

We have found it difficult to forecast social security exactly. Is that just because it is new? Will it calm down and be easier to forecast in future?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

We have covered quite a lot of ground already. We have talked about the potential £2.6 billion gap, but, perhaps more urgently, the forecast for 2027-28 is an £851 million negative reconciliation, which would be over our borrowing limit. Do you have any thoughts on how we will address that?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Government and Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2025

John Mason

I certainly share your hope that the figure will reduce.

I discussed this issue with the Scottish Fiscal Commission in the previous evidence session. You have already said that you have asked for a review of the fiscal framework, and what we have been talking about emphasises the point that, as the Scottish budget has increased, the £700 million reserve and the £600-odd million borrowing limit have not increased proportionately, which concerns me quite a lot. It is all very well increasing them by inflation, but our responsibilities have increased by a lot more than inflation.