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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 5 May 2021
  6. Current session: 12 May 2021 to 13 July 2025
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Displaying 1221 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Liz Smith

I will start with a very technical point. Your forecast for median earnings in Scotland for 2024-25 is £28,200, while according to Office for National Statistics data, the median salary at £29,675 for the current year. What is the difference there?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Liz Smith

I have a quick suggestion, which is that you repeat the wonderful lunchtime seminar that you did for MSPs and staff about four months ago. All your diagrams were far better than reading through an awful lot of text. It was a fantastic seminar and much appreciated by the staff and the Parliament.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Liz Smith

Yes.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Liz Smith

It seemed a bit strange, because I would have thought that it would be relatively easy to work that out. If you could get back to us, that would be extremely helpful.

I also want to ask about the gap between private and public sector earnings, which seems to be widening, as far as I can work out. Can you give us a bit of background on that?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Liz Smith

Given that the committee is trying to drill down into where the greatest potential for economic growth and productivity improvements might be, those gaps are quite important.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Liz Smith

Yes. They seem to be moving apart quite a bit. Is that correct?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Liz Smith

Does that reflect how different sectors in the economy are doing, too?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 20 December 2023

Liz Smith

You have very helpfully answered my next question, because what you have said leads on to the potential for public sector reform. I know that you cannot comment on that, because it is a political decision, but it will be predicated on the trends in the data that you have just highlighted.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Liz Smith

Good morning. I will pursue that issue of productivity, which is absolutely critical, as Professor Miles said. I also want to interrogate the panel about the unemployment forecast and the participation forecast, which are extremely important.

You said earlier that for the unemployment forecast you are using material from the business labour market surveys, information from HM Revenue and Customs and the Department for Work and Pensions, and so on. Your prediction for the end of next year is that the unemployment rate will be 5.5 to 6 per cent. Are you detecting that there is a danger of an increase in unemployment in any particular sectors?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2024-25 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 12 December 2023

Liz Smith

That is all very helpful. During the past several years, we have had various deliberations about how we articulate the forecasts from the OBR, the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the Office for National Statistics. Although it is nobody’s fault, there is frustration that we cannot get the forecasts all lined up and covering the same time period. That is very difficult for both Governments, particularly the Scottish Government, which is having to interrogate all three of the forecasts, whereas that is not the case in Westminster. Based on comments that we have had from other witnesses, I understand that co-operation between all three groups is very good. Is there any way that we can try to minimise the problem with the time lag between different forecasts and ensure that they are all on the same page?