Chamber and committees

I think that you would agree that it is important for us to have absolute clarity on the figures that we are looking at. Exhibit 1, on page 8 of the Auditor General’s report, refers to “Domestic transport”. When I read that, I immediately leapt to the conclusion that it meant cars. Of course, it does not—it refers to the territorial area of Scotland being domestic as opposed to international, although some of the categories listed in that chart are also domestic.

It was not until we queried that and got a breakdown that we found out that, while cars are, in fact, still a significant proportion of it, there are also trucks, buses and railways, and goodness knows what else. That could be clearer, because I think that a lot of people would jump, as I did, to thinking that domestic transport means just cars, when it clearly does not.

That is not a question—it is just an observation to think about.

The Auditor General’s report identifies a number of shortfalls in the active travel grant funding. What lessons have been learned from that about how to handle that issue, and what measures are in place to identify those issues?

Okay. We will rely on your assurance that you are improving things.

Cabinet secretary, you mentioned the problems with one-year funding for active travel and public transport schemes. How are you planning to address the challenge of providing reassurance to partners who are working with you on what are long-term, multiyear projects? Given the one-year funding model, how can you reassure them that those projects are secure?

What you have described is a UK-wide issue, and, in that respect, we in Scotland might benefit by having more accurate data. When it comes to improving information, there are two levels to take into account: the overall UK improvement, and the potential Scotland-level improvement—that is, what the Scottish Government might or might not be prepared to invest in to get better data. If the Scottish Government were to suddenly win the lottery and were able to spend some money on improving the data, what would be the most productive area for that spend?

Jonathan, you were talking about the need to upgrade and modernise your systems. To be blunt, I would point out that the last time that you tried to do that, it did not work so well—I cannot remember how many billions you wrote off on that one. What are the prospects of getting the money that you need to drive those changes, which will clearly be beneficial not just for Scotland but for the whole of the UK?

From what you are saying, a lot more is going on than the committee was aware of. We go by what the NAO says, and it is unequivocal about the low level of investment in such evaluations. Why does the information from the NAO seem to be pointing in one direction, when you are saying that a lot of other stuff is going on? Does the NAO not have access to that information?

I have one final question, which is about the impact of tax divergence. The Comptroller and Auditor General said:

“One of our big critiques of Government generally, including HMRC, is the surprisingly low level of investment in evaluation of the impact of different policies.”—[Official Report, Public Audit Committee, 19 February 2025; c 10.]

Does the Scottish Government have enough information about the impact of its tax policies to be able to make informed choices in the future?

What you have said actually emphasises my concerns. The NAO report shows so many estimates, projections and UK-wide calculations, including for the south-east of England—which, of course, distorts any figures for any other place—and we are relying on those figures to calculate the Scottish rate of income tax. Looking at the NAO report, you would say, “My gosh, so many areas here are actually quite weak.” However, when I speak to HMRC or to you, you give reassurance that things are not, in fact, quite as drastic as they would appear in the NAO report. Would you agree with that?

If it were to be possible to get that information, that would be really helpful.

I will return to the issue of estimates, which is something that has exercised this committee and me for a number of years. There seems to be a difference between what the National Audit Office says and what HMRC says. It is in the nature of being an auditor that you always approach things from a more negative point of view, because that is the job. However, the Comptroller and Auditor General noted:

“When it comes to the outturn calculation, our exercise shows that we can take material assurance on the accuracy of the figure, most of which is based on actual records of Scottish taxpayers. However, while we have our current systems, an element of it will always be an estimate. Reducing the uncertainty even further will require significant investment in more accurate Scottish data.”—[Official Report, Public Audit Committee, 19 February 2025; c 13-14.]

It is obviously a concern that we get accurate figures. I am not saying whether it would be a gain or a loss for Scotland if we had accurate figures, but accurate figures are important for planning ahead. If additional resources were available to invest in more accurate Scottish income tax data, where should that be prioritised? Which area would give the biggest results?