I have a question so that I am clear about what you mean. Our investment in energy efficiency measures such as area-based programmes is largely modelled on what can be delivered in the sector, what we can take forward and what can be expanded where there are reasonable grounds to do that. You said that that means that we will not be able to meet what we intend by the end of this year—what exactly are you referring to?

I agree with Keith Anderson on that. Offshore wind energy is one of the cheapest forms of electricity production, and it could be tied closely to renewable or green hydrogen production, which could play an important part in decarbonising our natural gas networks. Again, we need clarity on the potential timescale for that.

On offshore wind, we have just completed round 1 of ScotWind, which has come in at potentially 25GW of offshore wind capacity between now and 2030. That will involve about £1 billion of investment in the supply chain for each gigawatt that is delivered. To put that in context, if we were to deliver 25GW tomorrow, which clearly Mr Kerr would like us to do, that would double Europe’s offshore wind capacity. Therefore, it is massive. I think that 11 of the 17 projects are floating offshore wind projects, which gives us the first-mover advantage in that area of technology.

It is a massive level of ambition. Just to give you more context, I point out that the USA is taking forward a programme of 30GW, for the entire USA. The fact that Scotland, with 5 million people, has a programme involving 25GW—in round 1—demonstrates the level of our ambition.

Secondly, our onshore wind policy statement sets out that we want up to an extra 12GW of onshore wind capacity to be delivered. That will help to drive down energy costs because it is a cheaper form of energy. Those projects can also be taken forward more quickly, because of the technical nature of onshore compared with offshore wind. If we can get more of our renewables online, that can help to reduce energy costs, which would directly benefit people’s energy bills. Our view is a bit like Keith Anderson’s—and in fairness, it is also the UK Government’s view—that renewables are critical to delivering energy security in future, meeting our climate change targets and helping to reduce energy costs.

Yes, onshore wind is the cheapest form of electricity production. The solar and hydro industries might argue with that, but I think that it is broadly in that sphere. The reality is that renewables are the cheapest form of energy production. Even folk that are for nuclear recognise that nuclear electricity is more expensive to produce. Renewable electricity is much cheaper to produce. That is why it is our view that that is where the focus should be, because it will help to reduce energy bills in the future.

The warm home discount scheme is a UK-based scheme. We proposed that it should be devolved, and it was agreed that it would be devolved. We proposed combining the energy company obligation and warm home discount schemes to create a more flexible and better scheme that would also increase the pot of money available to support low-income households. Despite spending probably about a year plus in trying to get the UK Government to agree to that, in February this year it finally said that it was not going to agree. We wanted to expand and invest more money in the warm home discount scheme if it was devolved to us. Our plan was to do that, but we were denied the opportunity by the UK Government.

As I mentioned, during this session of Parliament, we are putting record investment of £1.8 billion into energy efficiency and heat programmes. We have also increased the eligibility for and scope of our area-based programmes to support local authorities and low-income households. We are putting in a significant level of investment, but we remain frustrated that the UK Government did not take up the offer and opportunity to do something even better with the warm home discount scheme here in Scotland that would have benefited more households to a better level.

If someone is having insulation installed in their property now, then yes, it will. People who are already getting insulation or are planning to put in insulation or other energy efficiency measures later this year will, of course, get the benefit of that.

You suggested that we will not meet a target for the end of this year. What target are you referring to? I am not clear about what target you mean.

The response that I got from Kwasi Kwarteng largely said that these matters could be discussed at the four nations net zero joint ministerial group—if I recall correctly. I might be wrong, but I think that that is what was said. We also asked the UK Government to work with us on creating a joint ministerial group back in January this year. It has not taken up that offer, and it has not engaged with us specifically on tackling the cost of living crisis.

However, the biggest constraint on that will be grid capacity. If you want to build an offshore wind farm, you require a date to be set by National Grid for when you will be able to connect to the grid to supply it with electricity. The biggest risk for ScotWind is National Grid not having put in place the right plans—although I welcome the fact that it is doing its holistic network review at the moment—which could stop a project that could be delivered by 2030 from being delivered until 2035 because it cannot get the grid connection until, say, 2034.

For the delivery of such projects, grid capacity needs to be in place. National Grid is taking forward that bit of work. Our view is that that should be delivered by 2030, and National Grid is planning how to deliver that.

Energy efficiency has an important role to play in the short, medium and long term, but it would be unrealistic to expect energy efficiency programmes to be rolled out on the scale that would be needed to deal with the potential crisis that we face in 2022 and into 2023 as a result of how the energy markets are. I will give an example of why there are challenges.

The sector has challenges in accessing labour to do energy efficiency work. I met a company that is involved in our area-based programme for local authorities, which targets properties where people could be fuel poor by providing greater energy efficiency and in some cases district heating systems. The company’s managing director told me that, even if we doubled the money that we offer for such projects, his company could not deliver them because it does not have access to labour. He said that his company used to have a lot of eastern European labour but no longer has access to that because we are no longer part of the European Union. I did not throw that up just for a Brexit-related reason, but that company was pointed about the fact that it does not have the same access to labour as it had pre-Brexit, which has constrained its capacity and ability to ramp up programmes that we would like it to deliver.

That issue does not apply to every company, but it happened to be the case for the company that I met. One constraint is access to labour and skills to deliver programmes, so programmes need to be taken forward in a way that ensures that the sector can deliver and which will expand the skills that are necessary to develop such programmes in future years. There are constraints and limitations.

Energy efficiency will play an important part in the short, medium and long term, and it is clearly an important part of meeting our climate change target of reducing energy consumption. However, it is wrong to think that the sector could easily double the number of homes that we insulate under the energy efficiency programme tomorrow, because the sector faces constraints.

If the grid capacity is there, it could be by 2030.

You ask me whether I recognise the situation. We actually recognised it back in January, which is why we suggested a four-nations approach to tackling the issue as well as a four nations joint ministerial group in much the same way that we worked on a four-nations basis on issues around the pandemic. However, the UK Government has not taken up that offer.

Will we work with the UK Government? Of course we will. We will work with it where we can and highlight the actions that we think should be taken. However, we can work with parties only if they are prepared to work with us. We have not yet had a positive response to the suggestion of all four nations working on a joint ministerial basis, which I think, given the nature of the crisis, would be the right thing to do.