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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 10 March 2026
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Displaying 4689 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

That is only the case if nothing changes in the next five years.

13:00

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Good morning, and welcome to the third meeting in 2026 of the Finance and Public Administration Committee. We have one public item on our agenda today, which is evidence from two panels of witnesses on the Scottish budget for 2026-27.

For the first panel, we will hear from the Scottish Fiscal Commission. I welcome to the meeting Professor Graeme Roy, the commission’s chair; Dr Eleanor Ryan and Justine Riccomini, who are commissioners; Claire Murdoch, the head of fiscal sustainability and public funding; and Michael Davidson, the head of social security and devolved taxes.

Having read out that list, I think that our time is just about up.

Before we move on to questions, I invite Professor Roy to make a short opening statement. Good morning, Professor.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

It makes it difficult for people to make comparisons year on year, which is certainly a concern for this committee and for anyone who might want to look at the figures.

One thing that stands out is the difference in the reconciliation, which is a change of more than £0.5 billion. You touched on the reasons for that, but only a few of them. Although they are in your report, could you go through them in a wee bit more depth for the record?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Indeed.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Yes—it is about the upper rates. Apologies.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

What am I going to say, then? [Laughter.]

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Limits to capacity in certain geographical areas and skills areas have a distortive effect. Why would you stick to the GDP deflator on capital when you know that it underestimates that effect? It will not be a 5 per cent reduction in terms of the amount of road that can be maintained or the number of new houses that can be built. The reduction will be a lot more than 5 per cent, will it not? What is it likely to be?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Sorry, but I would have thought that you could use the GDP deflator for resource and the Building Cost Inflation Service rate, or whatever it might be—some measure that can be agreed on—for capital. We use capital and resource completely separately. They are separated throughout your figures. It therefore seems to me that it would make sense to use two different measurements.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Nor do we have timescales or budgets.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

I knew that you would duck and dive that question. The OBR did exactly the same, as you are probably well aware. [Laughter.]