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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 10 March 2026
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Displaying 4689 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

In the past, you have said that the OBR has overestimated, for example, productivity growth. Clearly, you feel that the SFC’s forecasts have proven to be more accurate.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Okay—thank you.

Professor Bell, one of the difficulties for the Scottish Government is that it is really at the mercy of whenever the UK Government decides to have its budget, and it just has to get on with it. We saw in the period from 30 October 2024 to 26 November 2025 four weeks being taken out of the whole process, but our budget still has to be passed before the new financial year, so that local authorities, health boards and everybody else knows what their budget is, council tax can be set and so on. What, if anything, can the Scottish Government do about that kind of difficult situation in which, effectively, it just has to take what is given to it, with regard to the timing of budget decisions?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

One point that not only the Scottish Parliament but other devolved Parliaments have made is that there is no real consultation on that issue. Is that right, Professor Spowage?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Some of the questions that I was going to ask Professor Heald with regard to his submission were asked of the SFC in the previous session, and so I will not tread on my colleagues’ toes, because they may wish to ask the same or similar questions here.

In the pages of the submission, Professor Heald has, I think, expressed frustration with regard to people’s understanding of the tax system in Scotland relative to the UK. I will quote from it.

In a supporting document to the budget, the Scottish Government states:

“54% of respondents felt they understood the UK tax system and the UK taxes paid. This compares to 41% of respondents who felt they understood tax devolution in Scotland and the devolved taxes they paid. This is broadly in line with the last three years.”

However, your submission states:

“If this were true … why do the UK and Scottish Governments engage in so much subterfuge?”

Are you referring specifically to fiscal drag, or have you concerns about a number of areas in which the Scottish and UK Governments are pulling the wool over people’s eyes?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Indeed.

What do you think, Professor Spowage?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

There is also the issue of incorporation and people putting money into pensions and all sorts of stuff.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

You have talked about loss aversion at this committee in the past. As we all know, the problem with council tax reform is that the losers will all be less than pleased with the Government—of whatever colour—that introduces it, which is why it has not happened in England, although it has been done modestly in Wales.

I want to switch tack. I want colleagues to come in, but I want to ask a couple more questions. I end up getting sucked into a big discussion and other people cannot come in. In the previous evidence session, we did not speak much about the sustainability of social care. You have touched on that, Professor Bell. What is your concern about that, given the tightness of the local government settlement?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

Let me go back to Professor Spowage. Capital is a real issue. Along with colleagues. I was quite astonished to see that the infrastructure investment pipeline does not seem to include any timelines or any budgets for any of the projects. As we discussed with the previous witnesses, the overall capital budget is set to reduce by 5 per cent in real terms. That is the figure if we use the GDP deflator, which, in my view, is the wrong measure for capital, because, as we all know, construction costs are well ahead of that. The GDP deflator gives an unrealistic picture of what can be delivered, which is less than we would like.

What is your view on where we are going with regard to capital expenditure over the next five years and what can be delivered through it?

12:00

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

We have been calling for that since December 2023.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Kenneth Gibson

We might have one or two questions for the cabinet secretary next week.