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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Session 6: 13 May 2021 to 8 April 2026
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Displaying 4778 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

As a committee, we are trying to cut through some of the politics—it is not exactly easy—to try to get as much of a consensual approach as possible. I am keen to get more information from you on the legendary £620 million, which is mentioned in annex A of the budget document. How we get to the figure of £620 million and how likely it is that that money will be delivered is not really spelled out in precise terms. The Scottish Fiscal Commission has said that it thinks that it is reasonable to assume will be delivered, but there is a difference between a reasonable assumption and the money actually arriving. That would have implications. Perhaps Graeme Roy can have first go at that and then David Eiser could come in. Daniel Johnson wants to come in with a related question after that.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

Do not all rush. Eeny, meeny, miny, moe. Yes—Mr Ireland.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you. I will start by asking about the £620 million, which you ended on. You said that you have some doubts about whether that £620 million will arrive in the Scottish Government’s coffers. In your report, you refer to annex A of the budget document as detailing that, but I wonder whether you could go through what the sources are and what the likelihood is of that £620 million coming to the Scottish Government.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

I was just wanting some clarification, so thank you for that.

You are predicting that, by 2024-25, there will be a £764 million shortfall in social security spending. Looking at that figure, I think that it is obvious that some measures are fixed and will remain in the budget, but surely the idea behind some of the measures that are being introduced to try and drive down levels of poverty is to reduce the number of people who are eligible and who are claiming benefits. Has any of that been taken into account in assessing the figures?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

No matter whether we move away from or keep focusing on the numbers, the IFS has still talked a lot about fairness, stagnating incomes and lack of growth and productivity. What could or should the chancellor have done differently in October, and what lessons are there for Scotland, given that our budget process begins on Thursday?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

What about Scotland? What kind of lessons can we learn for our budget from what the UK has done? We have had six weeks to reflect on what has happened, and the Scottish ministers will be setting out their proposals from Thursday. What pitfalls should they avoid and what kinds of things can they do in a positive sense, given the policy restrictions, of course?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

The Institute of Fiscal Studies has said that policies have been led by the OBR. We will ask it about that.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

I have a final question on taxation before I turn to colleagues. You state in your submission that the amount of gross domestic product that is raised in tax will be 36.2 per cent by 2026-27, which will be its highest since the early 1950s. You also state that taking his past two budgets together, the Chancellor of the Exchequer has

“raised taxes by more this year than in any single year since Norman Lamont and Ken Clarke’s two 1993 Budgets in the aftermath of Black Wednesday.”

You wrote the submission on 27 October. What impact do you think that will have on future growth projections, given that you have had six weeks in which to analyse the situation further?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

We shall end this evidence session on that very positive note. I will not ask for the name of the hotel.

I thank Mr Hughes and his colleagues for taking the time and trouble to come all the way to Edinburgh. That is really appreciated in the current circumstances, and it definitely gives you lots of brownie points from the committee. We much prefer to take evidence face to face, if we possibly can.

I also thank you for all your evidence. We could have asked a lot more questions if we had the time, but we have a full agenda today. Thank you for coming to see us, and we hope to see you again before too long.

Our next witness will be Carl Emmerson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies, who will join us remotely. I suspend the meeting to allow final connection checks to take place. We will be back at 10.29 for a 10.30 start.

10:26 Meeting suspended.  

10:30 On resuming—  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

On 27 October, Paul Johnson said that the budget was “very disappointing” and that it showed that household income would be “pretty stagnant” at around 0.8 per cent growth this year. He went on to say,

“This is actually awful,”

pointing to

“High inflation, rising taxes, poor growth keeping living standards virtually stagnant for another half a decade.”

In his speech that day, he went on to say:

“Average gross earnings could have been some 40% higher had pre crisis trends continued.”

How does that compare to other western countries?