Chamber and committees

There is already a range of resources and help for communities across Scotland. I point, for example, to the climate challenge fund, which provides funding to a range of local projects. We are also building a new model to support community climate action via a network of regional climate action hubs and climate action towns. Those will be important vehicles for local communities and local people to contribute fully to that effort.

I agree with Kaukab Stewart about the contribution of local communities across Glasgow to making COP a success. It was not an easy two weeks, and the period leading into it was not easy for the city, but I was inundated—that is not an exaggeration—with people coming up to me to tell me what a wonderful city Glasgow is and how fantastic the people of Glasgow are. Right across the globe, I think, people will know about Glasgow who might not have known about it before. The same is true of Scotland. There will be massive opportunities for us in the medium to long term if we play our cards right—which we intend to do.

I will give an update on the latest Covid situation and provide an assessment of the current course of the pandemic. First, though, I will give today’s statistics. Yesterday, 2,771 positive cases were reported, which is 12.8 per cent of all the tests that were carried out. There are 779 people in hospital with Covid, which is eight more than yesterday, and 57 people are receiving intensive care, which is the same number as yesterday. Sadly, a further 17 deaths have been reported over the past 24 hours, which takes the total number of deaths registered under the daily definition to 9,406. I again send my condolences to everyone who has lost a loved one.

More positively, the vaccination programme continues to make very good progress. I confirm that 4,331,574 people have received a first dose and 3,930,317 have now had both doses. In total, 88 per cent of all those over 18 are now fully vaccinated with two doses. In addition, 76 per cent of 16 and 17-year-olds and 56 per cent of 12 to 15-year-olds have had a first dose. Until now, only a single dose has been recommended for those age groups but, following yesterday’s updated advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, we are now preparing to offer second doses to 16 and 17-year-olds.

I will say a bit more about the progress of the booster programme later. However, it is worth pointing out that, on first, second and booster and third doses, Scotland is currently the most vaccinated part of the United Kingdom. That is down to the incredible hard work of everyone who has been involved in organising and delivering the programme, and I record my thanks to each and every one of them.

Today’s weekly update coincides with the latest three-week review point for the remaining Covid regulations, and I confirm that, at our meeting earlier today, the Cabinet agreed to keep the current regulations in place with no immediate changes. However, we also considered, although we have not yet reached final decisions, the possibility of future changes to the vaccination certification scheme. I will say more about that shortly.

The numbers that have been reported in recent days here in Scotland, which I will come on to talk about in more detail, illustrate the need for continued precautions, and so, too, does the challenging situation that is again being experienced across Europe. Several European countries are dealing with a sharp increase in cases. Infection rates in Germany have reached their highest level since the pandemic started. The Netherlands reintroduced some Covid measures last week and Ireland has done so today. Austria has just introduced extremely tough restrictions on people who are not fully vaccinated.

All of that is a reminder that Governments everywhere are grappling with the same issues and dilemmas as we are. The threats that are posed by Covid are still very much with us, even though they have been mitigated by vaccination, and the race between the virus and the vaccines has not yet been won. The situation here, in Scotland, also bears that out.

Before I give an update on the overall trends in Scotland, I will say a few words about the impact of recent events in Glasgow. I will reflect more generally on the 26th United Nations climate change conference of the parties—COP26—in a further statement to Parliament later this afternoon. However, while we cannot yet draw final conclusions, I confirm that there is no sign so far of any significant spike in Covid cases associated with COP26. Rigorous measures were put in place to minimise the risks of transmission. For example, everyone who entered the main summit site—the blue zone—had to provide evidence of a negative lateral flow test result.

Information that was published earlier today by Public Health Scotland suggests that, of the people who were officially affiliated with COP26, approximately four in every 1,000 tested positive for Covid through routine lateral flow testing. That contrasts with survey data for the Scottish population as a whole, which suggests that, last week, 12 people in every 1,000 had Covid. In total, since 15 October, 291 people with Covid across Scotland reported attending a COP-related event. That includes satellite meetings and demonstrations as well as the main summit. That represents less than half of 1 per cent of all those who tested positive for Covid over the past month and reported through test and protect.

All of that, at this stage, suggests that the mitigations that were put in place for COP26 were effective. I put on the record my thanks to delegates for their compliance, and indeed to everyone who worked so hard in the run-up to and during COP26 to secure the safest possible environment.

More generally, across Scotland, we have seen a gradual increase in cases over the past two weeks, from just over 2,500 new cases a day to approximately 3,000 a day at this stage.

It is important to note that that headline figure masks some distinct variation between different age groups. For example, cases among the under-60s increased by 14 per cent during the past week, and much of that increase was in people under the age of 20. By contrast, cases in the over-60 age group fell over the past week by 11 per cent. That is likely to be due, at least in part, to the success of the booster programme, which is, of course, prioritised among the older population. I will say more about that shortly.

The decline in cases among older people may also explain why, despite the overall increase in cases, the numbers in hospital with Covid have reduced slightly in recent weeks. Three weeks ago, 917 patients were in hospital with Covid; today, there are 779. The number in intensive care has also fallen—albeit very slightly—during that time, from 59 to 57.

However, all of that said, the number of patients in hospital with Covid is still extremely high. If cases continue to increase, notwithstanding the age profile, we are likely to see hospital admissions and occupancy start to rise again.

In addition, the national health service is currently treating people who are in hospital for care that had to be delayed by earlier Covid countermeasures. As we go further into winter, we can expect other seasonal pressures—for example, flu—to increase.

All of that means that the NHS is under extreme pressure. We continue to work closely with health boards to address and mitigate those pressures as far as we can.

The vaccination programme continues to be critical in reducing the direct health harm that is caused by the virus. A moment ago, I mentioned that the decline in Covid rates in older age groups and the fall in hospital admissions may well reflect the impact of the vaccine booster campaign. I can confirm that more than 1 million booster jags have now been administered. More than 70 per cent of people in the over-70 age group have now had a booster. We know that a booster jag significantly increases the effectiveness of the vaccine. That high level of uptake is therefore extremely important, and we will continue to push it up as far as possible.

The programme took a further step forward yesterday with the launch of the online booking portal. Everyone aged 50 to 59—together with unpaid carers and household contacts of the immunosuppressed, and anyone eligible for a vaccine who has not yet had an appointment—can now book online at NHS Inform. Since yesterday morning, more than 54,000 people have made online bookings, and more than 8,000 people have made bookings through the national helpline, which can be called on 0800 030 8013.

It is, of course, important to remember that boosters can be given only from 24 weeks after someone’s second jab; therefore, for many in the 50 to 59 age group, appointments will only be possible from December onwards.

It is also worth pointing out that people living in Orkney, Shetland, the Western Isles and the NHS Highland health board areas will not use the online booking system but will instead receive information direct from their health board about local arrangements for appointments.

As I mentioned earlier, the JCVI updated its advice yesterday. In addition to recommending second doses for 16 and 17-year-olds, it recommended booster jags for people in their 40s. I very much welcome that, and the Scottish Government will move to implement that new advice as quickly as we can. We continue to work with health boards to ensure that the overall programme is delivered as rapidly as possible.

However, it is worth taking stock of the situation as of now. This winter vaccination programme is the largest and most complex that has ever been undertaken in Scotland. However, since the first week of September, more than 3 million flu and booster jags have been administered, and take-up rates have been encouraging; that is providing vital protection as we head into winter. Once again, I am hugely grateful to everyone who is helping to get jags into people’s arms as quickly as possible.

I take again the opportunity to urge every single person who is eligible for vaccination—whether a first, second or booster or third jag—to please take up the offer without delay, and to get the flu jag, too, if they are eligible.

Getting vaccinated remains the single most important thing that any of us can do to protect ourselves, our loved ones and our communities. It is impossible to overstate how important it is to get vaccinated, so, if you have not already done so, please do so now. You could be saving your own life or the lives of your loved ones. You will be reassuring others, including those most at risk—some of whom have clinical conditions that mean that they cannot get vaccinated themselves. You will be helping those who are working in the NHS, and you will be maximising our chances of getting through the winter without the need to reintroduce any restrictions. In my view, choosing—without good reason—not to be vaccinated is deeply irresponsible. Getting vaccinated, on the other hand, is a civic duty and the most precious gift that we can give to others at this time.

The vaccination programme is, and will continue to be, the bedrock of our efforts to control Covid. However, other baseline mitigations remain in place, and they, too, are important. As I mentioned earlier, lateral flow testing appears to have been effective in limiting transmission during COP. That should remind all of us that those tests are an important way of detecting infection, particularly in those without symptoms, and therefore preventing onward spread.

I therefore again encourage everyone to take a lateral flow test at least twice a week—especially if you are attending events or mixing with people in other households. The tests can be ordered free through NHS Inform or collected from test sites and local pharmacies. Face coverings also continue to be a simple but important mitigation, and they remain a legal requirement on public transport, in shops and when moving around in hospitality settings. Please also continue to work from home when that is practical. I today ask all employers to look again at whether more workers could be supported to do more work from home over the winter period. Lastly, good ventilation is vital. If any of us are having people visit our homes, we should open a window, even slightly, to let some air flow through the room.

Within the public sector, we have taken significant steps to improve ventilation—for example, through funding for carbon dioxide monitors in schools. In September, we announced the establishment of a £25 million fund to help businesses to improve ventilation. That fund opens for applications next week. Businesses such as restaurants, bars and gyms will be able to claim back costs of up to £2,500 for measures such as the installation of carbon dioxide monitors or improvements to windows and vents. More information on eligibility has been published today on the Find Business Support website.

All those basic mitigation measures are important at this stage. However, some of them are also valuable long-term investments. For example, better ventilation will not only reduce the spread of Covid but will help to reduce the spread of other airborne viruses, now and in the future. There is an important point here that is worth stressing. When we talk—as many do these days—about living with Covid, it is important that we do not think of it as simply giving in to the virus. Instead, it is about making sensible changes that allow us to return to both greater normality and better health.

The final mitigation measure that I will talk about today is the vaccination certification scheme. It is the strong view of the Scottish Government that the scheme—together with the other measures that are still in place—makes an important and proportionate contribution to stemming Covid transmission. The value of certification is also recognised in other countries, many of which require certification for access to a much wider range of services than is currently the case in Scotland. Wales, for example, expanded the scope of its scheme yesterday, such that it now applies to theatres, cinemas and concert halls, in addition to the same range of venues as in Scotland.

The Cabinet discussed possible changes to the current certification scheme at our meeting this morning. We intend to take a final decision next Tuesday, in the light of the most up-to-date data. In the meantime, later this week, we will publish an evidence paper and consult businesses on the practicalities of implementation, should any changes be made. Although final decisions have not yet been reached, I will provide an update on the issues under consideration. I should also say that we provisionally intend that any changes that we decide to make to the scheme will take effect from 6 December.

When the scheme launched, on 1 October, we judged that it was not appropriate at that time—given the imperative to drive up vaccination rates—to include testing as an alternative to proof of vaccination. However, we indicated that that would be kept under review. We will therefore be assessing, in the coming days, whether, on the basis of current and projected vaccination uptake rates, we are now in a position to amend the scheme so that, in addition to showing evidence of vaccination to access a venue, there will also be the option of providing evidence of a recent negative test result. That is already a feature of many other countries’ certification schemes.

We are also considering whether an expansion of the scheme to cover more settings would be justified and prudent, given the current state of the pandemic. Again, let me stress that we have not at this stage taken a decision to extend the reach of the scheme. However, to allow us to engage openly with businesses in the coming days about the pros, cons and practicalities, I confirm that the kinds of setting that might be in scope are indoor cinemas, theatres and some other licensed and hospitality premises.

We would, of course, retain exemptions for people under 18, people who cannot be vaccinated or tested for medical reasons, people on clinical trials, and people who work at events or in venues that are subject to the scheme. Exceptions would also be retained for worship, weddings, funerals and related gatherings.

I will give a further update on that in next week’s statement. If we decide to propose any amendments to the regulations on certification, Parliament will have the opportunity to discuss and debate those amendments.

I am acutely aware that many businesses want us to remove mitigations—including certification—not extend or tighten them. I understand that. However, all our decisions are and must be motivated by a desire to keep people safe and to get through what will be a challenging winter without having to reintroduce restrictions on trade. We want—if possible—businesses to stay fully open over Christmas and through the winter, while keeping Covid under control. If an expansion of vaccination certification can help us to do that, it would be irresponsible not to consider it.

As the detail of this statement makes clear, and as the situation across Europe shows, the need to carefully manage this pandemic still deprives us of easy options. Although we hope very much to get through the winter without reintroducing further restrictions, as some other countries are now starting to do, we have a duty to keep proportionate options under review, and we will do so.

To assist with and give an insight into the factors that guide our considerations, we are today publishing an updated strategic framework, which covers in more detail many of the issues that I have summarised. One of the points that it reiterates is that all of us across society—individuals, businesses and other organisations—must continue to play our part in helping to curb the spread of the virus.

For that reason, cabinet secretaries are continuing to work with the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities, individual local authorities and businesses on the actions that we need to take to reduce transmission—preferably without additional restrictions.

I will close by reiterating what we can all do to protect ourselves and one another.

First, please do get vaccinated if you are eligible and have not yet done so. As I mentioned earlier, that includes going for a booster jag when you are invited. It is never too late to get vaccinated, and it remains the single most important thing that any of us can do right now.

Secondly, please test regularly with lateral flow devices. Devices can be ordered through NHS Inform or collected from local test sites and pharmacies. If you test positive, if you are identified as a close contact or if you have symptoms of the virus, please self-isolate and book a polymerase chain reaction—PCR—test.

Thirdly, please comply with the mitigations that are still in place. Work from home when that is possible. Wear face coverings in indoor public places—for example, when you are in shops, on public transport or moving about in hospitality settings. Wash hands and surfaces thoroughly.

Meet outdoors if that is possible. That gets harder through the winter, obviously, but it is the case that outdoor environments are safer than indoor environments. When you meet indoors, try to open windows—anything to improve ventilation will help.

All those precautions still make a difference. They will protect us and those around us, and they will help to ease the burden on our NHS. I ask everyone to continue to stick with them, and I thank everyone for doing so.

The JCVI advice is that the vaccine booster should be offered no earlier than six months after the completion of the primary vaccine course, which means no earlier than six months after a person has the second dose. As, I think, I have said previously in the chamber, the Scottish Government is interpreting that as 24 weeks. By the time that the JCVI advice was received, many people had already passed the six-month—24-week—period, so we are in a catch-up situation. However, the catching up is going well and we continue to do it at pace.

The advice from clinicians is that the immunity from the primary course does not suddenly fall off a cliff when someone gets to the six-month point, but there is concern about gradual waning. Therefore, we want to get the boosters done as quickly as possible, which is what the programme is working hard, and successfully, to do.

From early November last year, when the full range of care and treatment was made available, we have been working to increase patient access to NHS dentistry. That has included additional funding for ventilation and improved dental drills.

We are in discussions with the British Dental Association to support dentists and put patients at the centre of building a sustainable NHS service. From February, we will bring in enhanced fees for a range of treatments, including a more comprehensive examination, supporting NHS dental teams to clear the backlog in routine care that built up during the pandemic. We have already provided £58 million of financial support, plus an additional £35 million-worth of personal protective equipment, to ensure that dental services can emerge well placed to care for patients across Scotland.

I agree that the 1.5°C goal is still within our grasp as a result of the Glasgow climate pact. However, that will remain the case only if actions are quickly taken to realise that the world is still on a devastating path of global temperature rises that are way above 1.5°C and, in fact, 2°C. I will be pretty frank about our targets: Scotland is a world leader, but the bar of world leadership is too low.

Ninety-seven per cent of our net electricity consumption is from renewable sources; we now need to replicate that in heat, transport and agriculture. We have legally binding annual targets, which most other countries do not have. They are designed to ensure that, in years when we fall short of targets, we are legally obliged to catch up so that we remain on track for the 2030 75 per cent emissions reduction target and the 2045 net zero target. We have marginally missed the past three years’ annual targets, which is why we have published a catch-up plan.

Let us put that into context. Scotland has decarbonised faster than any G20 country—that is an independent assessment—and we are already halfway to net zero. If we had met our emissions reduction targets, we would have cut them by 55 per cent. We have cut them by 51.5 per cent, which is still way ahead of most other countries in the world.

However, we need to raise our ambitions even further. I say to Douglas Ross that I am under no illusions about that; I know that it will take tough decisions. We have probably done the relatively easy things already. I reflect on the fact that every time we come forward with a tough decision, whether on workplace parking to reduce the number of cars on our roads, or on facing up to the need to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy, the one thing that is absolutely consistent is opposition from the Scottish Conservatives. If we are to meet our targets, lead the world and play our full part in saving the planet, perhaps it will be necessary to have a bit less opportunism and opposition from the Scottish Conservatives.

We have a really positive vision for agriculture. However, there is no doubt that agriculture is one of the sectors in which considerable adaptation is needed to reduce emissions. One of the investments that I was able to welcome over the course of COP was from a company that has decided to locate in Ayrshire its facility for manufacturing additive for cattle and sheep feed, which will have a big global impact in reducing emissions from agriculture. We need to work with agriculture to support the innovation that is already in the sector in order to ensure that it and the rural communities that it supports fully play their part—just as with oil and gas, in a fair and just way.

The commitment to keeping warming below 1.5°C is now unquestionable and is reflected clearly in the Glasgow climate pact. That is a big step forward, but the actions are not yet in place to give us confidence that we will start to see global emissions falling in order to meet that target.

I have already been candid about our obligations not only to set targets but to meet them. Scotland’s targets are consistent and exceed the obligations on 1.5°C in the Paris agreement. We are again leading by example, but we must raise our ambition even further.

I or the Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero, Energy and Transport will meet anyone to discuss how we can take forward our ambitions further and faster. We must all raise our game. As I said in my statement, I came out of COP26 proud of the leadership that Scotland is showing—which is strongly recognised around the world, if not always in this chamber. However, we must go even further.

Before I meet Anas Sarwar to discuss fuel poverty, I say to him that he should come prepared to engage with the fact that the power to act on fuel poverty does not lie in the hands of this Government. Financing, too, does not always lie in the hands of this Government. I am not sure that we will get very far if the suggestion is another example of Labour willing the ends but not being prepared to take the means into our hands. In the spirit of all of us raising our game, that is my challenge to Anas Sarwar.

I have had discussions with Mark Carney and the Scottish Government has had discussions with Mark Carney. The high-level champions of the UN were also involved in that initiative, which is important. I welcome it and I am enthusiastic about it. However, it is really important to not mischaracterise that £100 trillion, which is not a funding pot but the combined assets of all the financial institutions that were part of the agreement. Although it is really important to celebrate such initiatives, we do not do anybody any favours if we try to suggest that it is something different from what it is.

There is a massive appetite in the capital market to find good investable projects around green innovation. That is why we have put the green investment portfolio into the market, to try to harness as much of that funding for Scotland as possible. That is a big priority for us. Over the course of the two weeks, I spoke to many different investors in the fields of wind and hydrogen who are looking very positively at Scotland as a location for investment. One of our priorities, coming out of COP, will be to ensure that we catch as much of that investment as possible.

Our recovery plan includes working with GPs to restore face-to-face consultations and surgeries. Public Health Scotland has published updated guidance for primary care settings that covers key issues such as physical distancing, which is now 1m not 2m, access for patients and wider infection prevention and control. That will be kept under review.

We aspire to return to a greater availability of face-to-face appointments, but a number of patients will wish to continue with phone or video consultations. Where clinically necessary, the option to have a face-to-face consultation should always be available. Our winter funding package, which includes funding for accelerated recruitment to aid general practice, will help to increase NHS and social care capacity over the winter.

To be perfectly frank, I think that many people in the oil and gas sector are more worried about the UK Government’s failure to support the Scottish carbon capture and storage cluster and the Acorn project. Perhaps, if we want to talk about a just and sensible transition, Liam Kerr should be having some conversations with his colleagues as well.

Here we have it, Presiding Officer. Liam Kerr illustrates helpfully for me—I thank him for that—the point that I have been making. We all talk, rightly, in general terms about the need to do more. Everybody across the world is talking about the need to accelerate our progress away from fossil fuels, but, as soon as we start engaging with the detail of that, what we have from the Scottish Conservatives is opposition.

We have to make sure that the transition is just, and it is this Government that has already established a £500 million just transition fund for the north-east and Moray to help with that. We must build up the renewable alternatives and the low-carbon alternatives, which is why the failure to support carbon capture is inexplicable. We must do all of that, but we cannot escape the moral obligation to accelerate that progress, and that is what the Government will continue to do. If we can learn from others in alliances about how to do that, and if we can offer our expertise and experience in how to do it, I think that that is what any responsible Government, in the current situation that the world is facing, would do.