Chamber and committees

In general terms, I am very supportive of longer-term planning and multiyear budgets, but putting that theory into practice is a different matter because neither I nor the Scottish Government are given multiyear budgets.

There is some suggestion that the UK Government is considering reviewing spending over a longer timeframe, which would certainly help. I very much agree that there is something inefficient about the annual budgetary process and that our justice stakeholders, justice officials and the Scottish Government as a whole would certainly welcome being able to take a longer-term view.

There are some examples of multiyear funding in Government. The victim-centred approach fund was a three-year fund and longer-term funding is particularly important for capital investment.

I had a meeting—probably about a year ago—with Sheriff Principal Pyle, at which he talked me through the plans and the aspiration for the virtual domestic abuse court.

More recent information that I have received indicates that it is hoped that the pilot will be introduced in Aberdeen alongside the roll-out of the digital evidence sharing capability. I note that, as part of its case for funding, the Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service has made an ask of £6 million for reform funding. I will continue to work with it to work through its bid, as I would with all partners. I have not had any formal approaches about specific funding for the pilot, but I know that my officials have a meeting arranged to catch up on the project at the end of November.

I know that the Crown Office and the Scottish Courts and Tribunals Service are engaged on the matter, and I have seen the written evidence from the Crown Agent and the SCTS. The Crown Agent narrated that, in reviewing the law of evidence, the appeal court has expanded the scope of the sexual offence cases that can be prosecuted, and the SCTS has reflected that that could result in increased demand on the solemn courts. I know that my officials will be meeting the Crown Office in the near future. That change is very recent, and there is no modelling that shows how the appeal court’s ruling will play out.

I was about to get to that. I do not believe that it is all about the budget. I am not for a minute denying the importance of the budget in relation to sustainability, increasing capacity and flexible use of resources to get the increased budget to the front line. Of course, we do that with the criminal justice social work grant because it is ring fenced. I know that not everybody likes that word.

There are recruitment challenges, which can be harder in some parts of the country, but I am not denying that the quantum of budget has an impact. In every portfolio in which I have had the privilege of serving, I have found that, even though we are a small country, we have regional variation in practice and delivery. That is not necessarily a bad thing, but I am never convinced that it is all about money. Money is part of it, but it is not all about that.

That is why we need scrutiny and a focus on community planning partners. Community Justice Scotland has a statutory role in promoting and sharing good practice, highlighting the evidence and advocating for change, but we should not forget the role of community planning partners, who, under the community justice legislation, also have a responsibility to support community justice priorities.

I refer Ms Dowey to our more recent manifesto commitments and our programme for government commitment, which was to provide resource to enable the chief constable to return police officer numbers to 16,500. I am pleased that the chief constable has advised that that has been achieved.

Obviously, we want to do as well as we possibly can for our justice agencies. We have a good record to build on in that regard. Crown courts, prisons and community justice courts all received a significant uplift—the fire service as well—and for some of those organisations there was a significant percentage uplift in terms of capital investment.

As you will know, the Scottish Government has welcomed the UK Government’s autumn statement. It is broadly in line with our planning assumptions. Nonetheless, the financial challenges continue. It is a very welcome step in the right direction, but one budget does not end the impact of austerity. We have seen an erosion of the Scottish budget, in particular since 2021, and that is around the cumulative impact of consumer prices index inflation, which has seen price increases of nearly 20 per cent. That, of course, has a huge impact on households but also on Government.

Given the operational seniority and expertise of the deputy chief constable, I would accept her narration of scenarios and would always accept her assessment of any impact on public safety. I appreciate that Police Scotland, along with other justice agencies, is, understandably, scenario planning. They will submit budget bids to the Government and be very transparent on that with the committee, as well. On the one hand, you will see their asks on what they could do with additional resource. You will also see in those budget bids what they assess as the consequences if they do not receive their bid in full or, indeed, in the scenario that you have laid out, Mr Kerr, in terms of flat cash or reduction. Obviously, the pay award is an important factor in all that.

In an endeavour to give the committee as much comfort as I can, and given that the budget is not done until it is done—this is pre-budget scrutiny—I point out that the police budget has increased, year on year, since 2016-17. In this financial year, we have seen a record investment of £1.55 billion. That is a big chunk of public money that goes into policing, which has resulted in an additional £75 million for front-line policing. The budget that I secured for Police Scotland last year has enabled the chief constable to meet her commitment to increasing officer numbers to 16,500. I know that she informed the committee that that has been achieved.

I do not want in any way to downplay the significance, if hard choices have to be made. Nonetheless, one could say that past behaviour is the best prediction of future behaviour.

There was a 34 per cent reduction in the first citation of police witnesses and a 25 per cent reduction in the first citation of civilian witnesses in domestic abuse cases in the aggregated pilot courts. We will provide further information about that. The BBC covered the pilot extensively not that long ago. It is really good work, and our partners—the police and the Courts and Tribunals Service—need to be commended for it.

As I said earlier, I am aware of all the justice partners’ asks for capital. Nonetheless, we have clear commitments around HMP Highland and HMP Glasgow, the replacement for HMP Barlinnie. The current contract for HMP Highland is now signed, so we have contractual obligations in and around the funding.

If there were to be any additional costs in a contract that is signed and agreed, it would tend to be when there are overruns. I went to visit Inverness during the summer and I have been reassured that the revised timetable for HMP Highland is making good progress. I have been up to Inverness twice now.

The only minor caveat that I am always alert to, as the resilience minister, is the impact of weather on construction projects. That would be the only worry at the back of my mind about HMP Highland. However, we are anticipating that it will cost £209 million, which is baked in as a result of the contract.

I am told that the contract for HMP Glasgow is at an advanced stage. There are issues around commercial sensitivity. The design is complete and it informs the contract, so the detail of the contract will inform costs, the allocation and phasing of resources and the timeframe. We are committed to the replacement of HMP Barlinnie, which is a Victorian prison.

The discussions continue with Kier, the contractor for the stage 2 construction contract. It is important that we continue, because prisons are not cheap. If you look at the cost of prisons south of the border, you will see that any prison is a substantial investment. We need to make absolutely every effort on due diligence, value for money and the shaking out of any savings where we can do so. Once that contract is signed, I will be able to talk more about time and cost.

There are some very encouraging numbers on that. I am happy to send that information to the committee. In September, a report was published that said that, in the 19 months of the pilot, among the outcomes that were achieved,

“It is estimated that 530 summary trials did not require to be fixed”;

if summary case management

“had been in place at a national level during the pilot period, it is estimated that at least 3270 trials would not have been fixed, a potential 5% reduction in fixed trials;”

and summary case management

“mitigated the impact of higher levels of complaints registered in 2023/24 so that the volume of outstanding scheduled trials reduced by 31%”.

There are also statistics, which I do not have in front of me, on the reduction in witness citations for professional witnesses and victims. Those are encouraging as well.