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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 9 September 2025
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Displaying 917 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 and Economic and Fiscal Forecasts

Meeting date: 10 December 2024

Craig Hoy

Before Professor Ulph comes in, can you say how easy or difficult that is to model? I presume that there will be a behavioural impact, in the same way as taxation has a behavioural impact.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 3 December 2024

Craig Hoy

I will close by asking about two issues that you have identified—sustainability of the NHS in Scotland and sustainability of Scottish universities and higher education. You said that the inputs into the English health service might be slightly higher than those in Scotland. However, this year, at the autumn budget revision, there was a significant resource increase of £1.1 billion for the Scottish health service. From today’s Audit Scotland report on the NHS, it is clear that the Scottish health service continues to be in crisis and is underperforming, compared with the service in the rest of the UK. That implies that money alone will not solve the NHS’s ills.

How clear would you be in suggesting that urgent reform is now required to the Scottish NHS, particularly given the concern that public sector pay, including NHS pay, is absorbing a greater proportion of the overall budget?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 3 December 2024

Craig Hoy

Finally, in relation to the future sustainability of Scottish universities, you identify a heavy reliance in the Scottish higher education system on overseas students, the numbers of whom are falling. At the same time, there has been no increase for 15 years in the tuition fees that are paid for Scottish students, which is leading to a looming cash crisis in Scottish higher education. What needs to change in the system to put it on a more sustainable footing?

10:45  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 3 December 2024

Craig Hoy

Yes. There is perhaps an element of smoke and mirrors at play.

You identify that the Scottish Government faces a challenging situation in future years, partly because of the projections in relation to public sector pay and the social security bill, and potentially also because of its income tax policies. You have recommended that the Scottish Government should set out its plans in a spending review next year and that it should

“evaluate key policies that increasingly differentiate it from the rest of the UK—including its higher public sector pay and income tax policies and wider tax strategy.”

I would probably add social security to that list. Should those three or four issues be cause for concern with regard to the long-term sustainability of the Scottish public finances?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 3 December 2024

Craig Hoy

You have pre-empted my next question. You said that you want the UK Government to provide a more coherent tax strategy. At this point in time, are you looking to the Scottish Government simply to provide a tax strategy, coherent or otherwise?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 3 December 2024

Craig Hoy

Good morning. I will jump around a bit, because some of the questions that I was going to ask have already been asked. On the back of what has been said, I have some follow-up questions that go to the heart of the sustainability of Scotland’s finances and tax system.

In your report, you identify a substantial uplift in the block grant in-year and next year. However, the Scottish Government says that the additional £1.4 billion that it is set to receive this year is already committed and that only about £300 million of the £3.4 billion that it will receive next year is additional new money that can be spent. We would say that it should be spent on tax cuts, but the Government might have other priorities in the budget. What does it tell us about the underlying health of the public finances when sums of that amount do not appear to touch the sides in relation to the Government’s expenditure?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 3 December 2024

Craig Hoy

Thank you very much.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 26 November 2024

Craig Hoy

Earlier, you discussed demographic trends in relation to the UK workforce. We have been dependent on net inward migration for employment. Is there a risk that, as we close that gap, the UK will be seen as a less attractive place to come and live and work, bearing in mind that, despite the net inward migration into the UK, Scotland is not realising its fair share, which is leading to imbalances in the labour and employment market here? Is there a risk that our dependence on net inward migration could be undermined by the closure in the gap?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 26 November 2024

Craig Hoy

Presumably that work should begin now; the UK Government should not be negligent. It should act with gusto and determination.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2025-26 (United Kingdom Context)

Meeting date: 26 November 2024

Craig Hoy

We have heard today about the UK Government’s perspective on welfare and unemployment. How concerned should we be about the fact that Scotland has a higher percentage of people who are claiming long-term disability benefits and that the trend seems to be that the percentage of people claiming those benefits is rising faster than it is elsewhere, which should presumably be a concern for any Government.