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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 27 January 2026
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Displaying 1109 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Craig Hoy

Good morning, Professor Roy. To go back to public sector pay for a moment, by common consent, it seems to be an area in which a red light is flashing at this time. What estimates have you made about forward-looking public sector pay deals? Do they give you any confidence that a 1.1 per cent pay policy will be met now and in future years?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Craig Hoy

The interface between earnings growth and the tax take is interesting. You are projecting slightly lower earnings growth in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, and it has been downgraded. What impact will that have, moving forward, on the Scottish budget?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Craig Hoy

On the additional reliefs that were announced in the budget, relative to the proposed increase, my understanding is that there is still a significant shortfall in reliefs, as opposed to what will be brought in through the revaluation—if indeed it goes ahead. Is that fair?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Craig Hoy

I will close with a question on capital. In some of its blogs, the Fraser of Allander Institute has identified that, with regard to projections for capital expenditure, the UK capital budget was front loaded but the Scottish capital budget is going to fall in future years. In the 2026 infrastructure delivery pipeline, there is apparently now a distinction between delivery and development. Post-election, in the early years of the next parliamentary session, is there a risk that some vital projects will be left to wither on a vine while the electorate is looking elsewhere because those projects will be categorised in a development pipeline rather than a delivery pipeline?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Craig Hoy

Paragraph 52 of “Scotland’s Economic and Fiscal Forecasts” states:

“If pay awards are higher than the Scottish Government has assumed, to keep the paybill at the level used as the basis for the Spending Review, the Scottish Government would have to make larger workforce reductions than it has already planned.”

The Government has put out quite a gutsy figure for public sector efficiency and workforce savings. What is the risk if it does not meet its forecast reduction in the size of the civil service, and if public pay deals turn out to be higher than 1.1 per cent and potentially above inflation? Where is the wiggle room within that? It strikes me that there is none.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Craig Hoy

In responding to the convener, you mentioned behavioural change. What behavioural change do you think that a £32-a-year tax cut might effect in Scotland?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Craig Hoy

Is the phenomenon of pulling more people into what is deemed the upper rates of tax—in effect, changing the profile of the taxation system—occurring in other countries?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Craig Hoy

In his submission to the committee, Professor David Heald, who will be giving evidence in the next session, says that greater devolution of tax powers is actually increasing the risk in terms of the net effect on Scottish revenues. Is that a fair conclusion?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Craig Hoy

Another debate that is about to be had is on what the budget means for Scottish local authorities. Yesterday, the First Minister urged councils to consider potential council tax increases of 3 per cent. We know from speaking to councils that some of them are considering increases of 8 per cent or even upwards of 10 per cent. Having delved into the figures, what would you say is the real-terms position for council budgets, next year and moving into future years?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Budget Scrutiny 2026-27

Meeting date: 20 January 2026

Craig Hoy

I have a question about business rates. Mention has been made of the fact that reliefs are baked into the tax system. It strikes me that, given all the reliefs in the business rates area—non-domestic rates—at the moment, perhaps the whole system needs to be looked at. The rates revaluation is coming through. There are a number of transitional reliefs, the small business bonus scheme and specific reliefs for hospitality.

Have you been able to estimate how many businesses in Scotland are going to be better off or worse off as a result of the proposed revaluations and the subsequent reliefs? Is there any specific sector or size of business that could be exposed to higher non-domestic rates bills? We are all hearing that hospitality, leisure and retail are potentially being hit through revaluation, whereas the Government is saying that it has now brought forward reliefs. Who will be the winners and who will be the losers, do you think?