I know that members have a lot of questions, so I will bring in Katy Clark and then Russell Findlay.

Good morning, and welcome to the 23rd meeting in 2024 of the Criminal Justice Committee. There are no apologies. Fulton MacGregor joins us online.

Agenda item 1 is a decision on whether to take in private agenda item 4, which is a discussion of the evidence that we will hear this morning. Do members agree to take that item in private?

Members indicated agreement.

I would be interested if you could expand on that. Will you give an example of the sort of activity that staff would normally support and assist with, which is now challenging, if not impossible, for them to deliver?

Under agenda item 2, which is our main item of business today, we will consider the proposals for an early release of prisoners and other key challenges in Scotland’s prisons. This is a preparatory session for next week’s appearance at the committee by the Cabinet Secretary for Justice and Home Affairs and the Scottish Prison Service.

I welcome our first panel of witnesses to the meeting. They are Professor Sarah Armstrong, who is professor of criminology at the University of Glasgow; Kate Wallace, who is chief executive officer of Victim Support Scotland; and Lynsey Smith, who is chair of the justice standing committee at Social Work Scotland. I thank you all for agreeing to provide evidence to the committee.

I refer members to paper 1. I thank Families Outside and the Howard League Scotland for their written submissions, which have been very helpful.

I intend to allow around 60 minutes for the evidence session. I will begin with a general opening question for our panel members. I will start from the left, bringing in Professor Armstrong first, and then work across the panel.

As you know, the cabinet secretary proposes that we release up to 550 prisoners earlier than anticipated, because of an emergency situation. She is proposing other measures for later on, via new primary legislation, to cover long-term prisoners. In general terms, what are your views on the proposals? Will they be enough, or should an alternative way forward be found, particularly for the longer-term approach?

Thank you for coming.

I will stick with Ian Bryce for a moment. Earlier, you spoke about blockages of older prisoners, and access—I wrote this down—to some of the offence-focused work that they are required to undertake. That work is important for the Parole Board in terms of your ability to assess risk.

What are the pinchpoints there? Can you expand a wee bit more on that? Is it just as simple as the pressures of the prison population, or is there a wee bit more to it?

Scotland has, indeed, punched above its weight when it has come to the energy sector, with the oil and gas industry underpinning a vital part of the Scottish economy over many decades. The workforce is highly skilled and internationally recognised, and there is an extensive supply chain, as well as research and innovation. The industry keeps us warm and keeps our lights on, and it provides a secure domestic energy supply. The north-east has been a major part of the oil and gas family since 1975, when the BP Forties field pipeline was switched on and the oil flowed onshore to Aberdeen and on to Grangemouth. Those were the days.

To date, our oil and gas sector has contributed an eye-watering £350 billion in tax revenue to the UK Treasury, and, according to Offshore Energies UK, 2022-23 saw the sector generate £18.9 billion in gross value added for the Scottish economy and support 90,000 skilled jobs.

Demand for fossil fuels will decline, but the sector will continue to play a vital role towards net zero carbon emissions by 2050, supporting the expansion of renewables and low-carbon technologies more broadly.

Will the cabinet secretary provide an update regarding the steps that are being taken to ensure that, despite the deeply challenging financial circumstances due to the United Kingdom Government’s financial settlement, the increased Scottish Police Authority resource budget supports further police recruitment?

No, thank you.

I refer members to the words of Professor de Leeuw at Robert Gordon University, who recently said:

“Given the magnitude of change that is needed ... over the coming years, ... the UK, and devolved administrations must ... pursue credible energy pathways, which deliver a ‘just and fair’ transition for the sector and its workforce.”

Given those comments from a well-known expert and the fact that we have a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take the best learning from our world-class oil and gas sector and mirror that experience for new and green energy, it is bizarre—though not unexpected, given the Conservatives’ stance on energy—that their motion excludes any reference whatsoever to just transition, renewables, emissions or the climate.

In the short time that I have left, I want to draw on the excellent detail outlined in the latest Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce energy transition survey report and highlight a couple of the many points that it makes.

First, on policy recommendations, the report highlights the challenges that Scottish Government planners face as they struggle to keep up with the pace that the industry demands for green energy consents, particularly with regard to offshore wind. It is an issue that I and other members raise regularly. I appreciate that that is more of an operational matter, but I would be grateful if an update on that important issue could be provided at the end of the debate.

Secondly, the report states:

“it is clear from our survey ... that companies will exit the UKCS”—

that is, the continental shelf—

“under the tax regime being proposed by the Labour Party. This is supported by independent analysis which concludes that 100,000 ... jobs currently supported by the UK oil and gas sector will be lost by 2029. Investment of up to £30billion is at risk, and for many of the basin’s key pieces of infrastructure, we are rapidly approaching the point of no return.”

Finally, on the energy profits levy, the report states:

“we have a UK Government taxing the oil and gas sector to death with its Energy Profits Levy (EPL), triggering a state of inertia among global investors.”

Moreover,

“many will turn their investment plans and focus elsewhere.

This outcome would be catastrophic for jobs, tax revenues and energy security”.

The cabinet secretary set out very helpfully the concerns arising from the EPL—

Presiding Officer, there is a lot to be positive about—