I want to make some progress first.

Such a complex population brings significant operational challenges, including disruption to offender behaviour programmes—which I mentioned—pre-release planning and reintegration. The detailed submission from the Scottish Centre for Crime and Justice Research points out that although those offerings are important in reducing the risk of reoffending, that is only one part of the much wider work that is needed to support and enable rehabilitation and reintegration. As Liam McArthur highlighted in the chamber yesterday—his point chimed with me—early release is a legitimate way to address extraordinary circumstances.

Although we understand the need for action, there are understandable concerns about public safety, especially for victims. In its briefing, Victim Support Scotland highlighted a number of concerns that I know that members will reflect on as the bill moves to stage 3. There is an opportunity for further engagement to provide reassurance, not only for survivors but for families who will be impacted by early release.

It is anticipated that, if the bill is passed, only around 5 per cent of short-term prisoners—between 260 and 390 short-term prisoners—will be eligible for release. The Scottish Centre for Crime and Justice Research highlights the lack of evidence that such a change will have a significant adverse impact on reoffending. Rather, the evidence suggests that the risk of reoffending

“is much more likely to be affected by the condition in which people are released”—

that goes back to the point that I have just made—

“and the circumstances to which they are released.”

On numbers, the previous Tory UK Government released more than 10,000 prisoners up to 70 days early, and the Labour Government has likewise undertaken early release. As a result, to date, more than 13,000 prisoners have been released early across England and Wales.

I am pleased to speak in this important debate at stage 1 of the Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Bill. As has already been highlighted, the bill makes provision for a change to the automatic early release point for certain short-term prisoners, and it makes provision for ministers to make future changes, if necessary, to the release points for short and long-term prisoners. The provisions apply to adults and children, but sex offenders and those who are convicted of domestic abuse offences will not be eligible.

Do we want to have to put the measures in place, if they are agreed to by the Parliament? No. Are we the only part of the United Kingdom having to consider such measures? No.

In recent years, there has been a fluctuating prison population, with a high point of almost 15,000 prisoners in 2011 to 2012, compared with the current population of around 8,300. Over that time, our attitude towards offending and rehabilitation has changed significantly and, today, our prison estate seeks to provide appropriate punishment in an environment that offers opportunities for rehabilitation and reintegration. In that context, the current population is simply untenable. The underlying factors, which are well documented, are complex and not straightforward to address. In addition, the average sentence length has increased by 32 per cent in the past decade.

In response to the Criminal Justice Committee’s recent call for evidence on the bill, the Scottish Prison Service highlighted that the current prison population includes

“higher numbers of Serious and Organised Crime Groups, people with increased social care needs, and changing risk profiles”.

The remand population, which currently sits at around 26 per cent, is likewise complex, with many prisoners experiencing multiple and complex needs, which, to a certain extent, displaces the important work to support the convicted population.

I will conclude by referring to some comments about community sentencing, which were made by Kathrine Mackie. She said:

“A sentence served in the community if well constructed, delivered and monitored should not be considered a ‘soft’ option.”

I go back to the point that the member made with reference to Dr Hannah Graham’s comment that this particular process will not solve the long-term underlying issues. Would he agree that it has to be part of a much wider long-term strategy, and that the aim of the bill is not to fix the system?

It is a complex question that has a complex answer. I do not think that we want to let people out earlier. Due to a range of circumstances, we have been put in a position in which that has to be considered.

I am not sure that that was the point that I was making. I was not making a comparison; I was simply pointing out what has happened in England and Wales. I am not thinking about mapping of processes and policy.

What needs to be in place to support early release and to enable us to reach a sustainable population? We know how important effective throughcare is. As the former governor of HMP Grampian told me, planning for release starts the day a person enters prison. Community justice services are essential in that regard. Following the Criminal Justice Committee’s budget scrutiny, I ask the Government to consider favourably community justice when it comes to next year’s budget provision. I welcome the cabinet secretary’s reassurance with regard to the provision of funding for the current early release process.

Rehabilitation is not only about changing a person’s behaviour; it is about meeting their basic needs, including access to housing and employment and to services such as those for addiction or mental health. Those services already exist, but they are under pressure and are supported by a workforce that I believe is absolutely committed to meeting the needs of service users.

I will support the bill at stage 1.

Although a lot of disabled young people will transition to college or to the world of work, many of them will go to university. What support is the Scottish Government able to provide for disabled students in that particular space?

As has been referred to, HMRC research has indicated that, across all tax bands in 2021-22, more taxpayers chose Scotland as their home than left the country. Does the cabinet secretary agree that that highlights the fact that Scotland is an attractive place for people to live and work in, while the SNP Scottish Government’s progressive approach to taxation continues to raise an additional £1.5 billion to support vital public services by asking those who earn more to contribute more?

A very good morning, and welcome to the second joint meeting in 2024 of members of the Criminal Justice Committee, the Health, Social Care and Sport Committee and the Social Justice and Social Security Committee to consider the progress being made in implementing the recommendations of the Scottish Drug Deaths Taskforce.

Our first item of business is to decide whether to take in private items 3 and 4, which are to review today’s evidence and to receive an update on the work of the people’s panel. Are we agreed to take those items in private?

Members indicated agreement.