The next item of business is a members’ business debate on motion S4M-11361, in the name of Jamie McGrigor, on tackling projected population decline in Argyll and Bute. The debate will be concluded without any question being put.
Motion debated,
That the Parliament notes that, on 29 October 2014, Argyll and Bute’s Community Planning Partnership held an economic summit in Dunoon entitled “Addressing our Population Challenge” to consider the population changes and associated challenges facing Argyll and Bute; is aware of the data published in May 2014 by the National Records of Scotland that predicted that Argyll and Bute’s population will fall by 13.5% by 2037, the second largest projected decline of any local authority in Scotland, with the working age population predicted to fall by almost 22%; shares local concerns about the impact on the local economy and public services of such a steep decline in population, and notes the view that policy makers at all levels should treat as a priority tackling and reversing the projected population decline and looking at new ways of supporting the area and boosting its economic growth, while promoting Argyll and Bute as a diverse, attractive and first-class location for residents, visitors and businesses alike.
12:33
I thank colleagues for supporting me on the frightening challenge facing Argyll and Bute. There is so much to say in only seven minutes. It is necessary to grasp the thistle—to quote the title of Mr Russell’s literary tome—and to do something now to change the alarming picture.
I thank Dick Walsh in Argyll and Bute Council, and others, for their briefings. Argyll’s people matter and so do their children—that is what worries me. I have had six children in Argyll and Bute. It is one thing to have them, but it is quite another to keep them there. Argyll was and is a fantastic place to live, but the lack of modernisation of its infrastructure is causing significant problems for those who want to make their living there.
Last May’s National Records of Scotland’s projections are that the population of Argyll and Bute will fall by 13.5 per cent over the next 25 years, against a 9 per cent rise in the overall Scottish population. An even greater concern is that the number of people of working age is projected to fall by 22 per cent by 2037. That comes on top of a 3.5 per cent decline between 2001 and 2011, with some islands, such as Bute, seeing a population decline of more than 10 per cent in that time.
When we look at the facades of the buildings in Rothesay, Dunoon or Helensburgh, we see the traces of an era of prosperity and enterprise. Those facades are fading fast, though, despite the great efforts of very gifted people such as John McAslan, who has converted the Dunoon burgh hall back to its former glory.
I have seen the population decline in Loch Aweside, where I live, and a sharp fall in the number of people employed in the primary industries of forestry and farming. Until the 1980s, forestry villages such as Eredine and Dalavich were mainly inhabited by forestry employees. All those jobs are now gone, so land that was nationalised and taken over by Government to provide local employment no longer fulfils that purpose.
On the farming front, I remember the hard physical work that occupied many young people on the farms all over Argyll, which went hand in glove with the social life that made Argyll living so agreeable. That era has passed and skills are being lost. Fisheries used to employ many in the coastal communities; again, those are in decline. Small villages were proud communities that competed in a friendly manner to have the best schools, shops, post offices and the like. That was the key to happy living. There are still strong, sustainable communities; Ardfern is one such example. However, all of us here recognise the pressures that a declining and ageing population will place on public services and the local economy. We risk losing the critical mass needed to retain services such as rural primary schools, the loss of which will discourage people from moving to the area—a vicious cycle that is difficult to escape.
The challenge for us is to reverse the population decline and to sow the seeds of something different. It is essential to increase economic growth and to attract new business. Government must provide the infrastructure, in particular transport links and digital communication technology. People like to be modern and not to be considered as hillbillies.
Since Roman times, areas have been judged by their roads. The future of the A83 trunk road—the key artery into Argyll, which links Cairndow to Campbeltown—must be at the top of the transport list. Many words have been spoken and diversionary routes put in place, but ask any business in Argyll and Bute and they will say that the Scottish Government needs to provide a permanent solution to deal with landslides. A canopy or covered emergency route option is the answer. People are frightened to travel that road. Argyll needs a reliable and safe road system, please.
That is fundamental, as are reliable and safe ferry services to Argyll’s islands and for those who commute from Dunoon to Glasgow. The isle of Colonsay suffers from an unfair situation, with freight charges 25 per cent more for shorter journeys than they are for other islands. It is an unlevel playing field.
Too many Argyll communities suffer from slow, unaffordable or non-existent broadband. Improvements must be inclusive. On the islands of Islay and Jura, Bowmore and Port Ellen are to get fibre optics but, although the roads are all being dug up at Port Askaig and Keil, people there will not benefit, and neither will Bruichladdich, Port Charlotte or Portnahaven, which are all being bypassed. That is not good enough for islands that provide a huge boost to the Treasury through whisky revenues. Holidaymakers now ask whether lettable properties have broadband, never mind 3G or 4G. Nowadays, no broadband can mean no visitors.
Ministers must consider additional funding for Highlands and Islands Enterprise to support new business start-ups and to attract new companies to Argyll and Bute. Planning relaxations are necessary where housing is in short supply and business developments are hampered. What is the point of conserving particular features of rural community buildings if the end result is that no one ends up living or working there?
How about local government-sponsored co-operative initiatives for businesses to overcome the expensive overheads involved in individual efforts? The council or HIE could act as a co-ordinator for that and there could be new initiatives between the council and the private sector on land use. What about tax incentives to grow business? Remember what schedule D did for forestry planting.
Finally, the issue of connectivity was emphasised by Dick Walsh and the council. E M Forster, author of five masterpieces, had the motto “Only connect.” Connection of transport, digital links and the physical and mental connection of people and ideas are vital.
Argyll has so many positives. Our wonderful scenery means that tourism is a key part of the economy. We have Oban’s world-class shellfish restaurants, our stunning islands, historic sites such as Inveraray castle and Mount Stuart and endlessly fascinating historic ruins. All that can be expanded with better promotion and a focus on genealogical and archaeological tourism. We have world-class country sports such as angling. The reintroduction of sporting rates will not help that sector and should be reconsidered.
The food and drink sector, not least of which is Islay’s whisky industry, is strong, but members should look at the telephone and electricity grids on Islay and Jura if they want to see something that needs to be improved.
Incentives for farmers to grow something other than just silage would be good and would also be good for biodiversity, especially of bird wildlife in Argyll and Bute, which is still an ornithologist’s dream.
The Scottish Association for Marine Science at Dunstaffnage has modernised, and the new European marine science park is a great addition. Argyll has great potential.
I am running out of time so I will conclude. I am looking for a commitment from the Scottish Government that in its policies it will treat tackling Argyll and Bute’s projected depopulation as a priority, because Argyll—Earra-Ghàidheal, or the coast of the Gaels—is a land of mystery and history, a vital and integral area of Scotland where the blood and the beauty lie strong. There is a Gypsy Traveller saying that they would not swap one square foot of Argyll for the whole of Perthshire and the Kingdom of Fife. There will be members in the chamber who might disagree, but nonetheless, Argyll is the enduring heartland.
12:41
I congratulate Jamie McGrigor on securing the debate and the poetry of his conclusion. Although I would not necessarily sign on to promote Argyll and Bute by criticising other areas, it is a most wonderful and remarkable place and I am very proud to be its member of the Scottish Parliament.
It is a measure of the seriousness of the problem that most of us have put party politics aside to debate and discuss it. It is therefore rather strange that there are no Liberal Democrats in the chamber considering that they have the member of Parliament for Argyll and Bute and are increasingly driving the council’s policies, mostly in the wrong direction.
The population summit that the council held was something of a damp squib. The meeting was cancelled, rearranged, cancelled and rearranged. When it took place, it came up with very little, apart from a recommendation that there should be something called a “sustainable task force”. It has not even met yet, although there have been two council papers.
Argyll and Bute Council is at the heart of the problem and it should be much more active than it is in promoting change and growth. However, there are roles for others, and Jamie McGrigor is right to talk about that. Last week, I was at a meeting of the A83 task force, held in Arrochar, at which there was a commitment by the Scottish Government to the principle of continuous access. In other words, there needs to be a permanent solution to the problem on the A83; the Scottish Government knows that and is working on it.
The Scottish Government has also invested heavily in Argyll and Bute’s infrastructure. There has been substantial expenditure on the A83, and the broadband project that is going forward in the Highlands and Islands is the largest in Europe. Last summer, 25 submarine cables were laid, the majority of which ended or started, or both, in Argyll and Bute. There is a massive programme of investment, but it needs to be matched by the actions of the local authority and some private enterprise.
The mobile phone companies are very remiss in their lack of investment in Argyll and Bute; it has the worst mobile phone service in Scotland. Indeed, the companies seem to be incapable of dealing with the regular outages. Oban was without a Vodafone signal for nine days at the start of this year. Vodafone has also failed to provide a regular signal in Lochgilphead, Islay and other places. EE and O2 are not much better.
Today, I want to present three ideas that I put to Dick Walsh, the council leader, for his population summit. I wrote to him about them and received a five-page rebuttal, so I will start again and see if the council will listen to some of the things that need to be done.
The very start is to listen to what the community is saying. On Saturday, I attended the march and rally in support of the Castle Toward buyout. The community in Castle Toward has received £750,000 from the Scottish land fund. It is very keen to purchase the castle and to make sure that 100 jobs are created; yet for some reason, best known to itself, the council is resistant to that change. Even at this late stage, on the day when it has a motion before it asking it to continue the issue for another month, I would appeal to it to do that and to enter into serious negotiation.
Three constructive things could be done. First, there needs to be a focus on the problem with an entrepreneurial and adventurous approach—that has got to be a priority. There needs to be urgency and intelligence in devising solutions.
Secondly, the council must work with others on that. It needs a small, flexible group of people that will look at lots of different ideas; there is no silver bullet for this. It should put together a group like that, not some massive, process-driven task force that will simply take minutes. What is needed is a small group of people working together—elected representatives and others—who can bring forward ideas. One idea—Presiding Officer, I am conscious of the time—that is already on the table is to talk to those who come and take holiday cottages. Some of them may wish to stay. Providing very simple information to them will help.
Thirdly, driving the policy has to be at the heart of everything that the council does. It is no use closing the schools or making planning much more difficult. What we need to do is to have every policy focused on population growth.
Finally, we need innovation and ideas. In 1868, there was a first proposal for a railway that would connect Ireland to Scotland. It was to go from Torr Head to the Mull of Kintyre. That would be a big project and I am not asking the minister to commit to it—today. However, I am glad to see David Mackenzie here in the gallery; he has been working hard with me and others on ideas for a fixed link to Coll. That would be affordable to invest in, and it would generate new business and new population within part of Argyll that would then grow outwards.
We need big thinking. Last year HIE proposed a new road from Dunoon to Lochgilphead. Let us look at capital investment and at work but, above all, the council has to get active. Presently it is passive and process driven, and that is not good enough.
12:47
First, I congratulate Jamie McGrigor on securing this afternoon’s debate. The member spoke passionately about population decline on the Isle of Bute, and his speech was very thoughtful and colourful.
In its recent skills investment plan for the Highlands and Islands, Skills Development Scotland argues that the biggest challenge for the region is the attraction and retention of working-age people. Where there has been strong population growth, it has been driven by in-migration, typically of older people.
The beauty of Argyll and Bute has made it a very desirable area to retire in, although it has also attracted many Highlanders from all over the world returning to their place of birth. Argyll and Bute has an older age profile and there is a deficit of skilled people of working age, particularly in the 15-to-39 age group.
What can we do to address the population decline? I endorse the comments of the previous two speakers about the way forward.
I believe that education is a powerful tool in the armoury. The University of the Highlands and Islands has received support from successive Scottish Governments and from all parties in the chamber—I put on record the support that Mike Russell gave UHI when he was education secretary. There are now around 9,300 students taking higher education qualifications across the region, including in Argyll and Bute.
As the university matures, develops and broadens its range of academic courses, I believe that it will decelerate out-migration and encourage more people—and indeed students of all ages—to study, train and work in Argyll and Bute. Of course we have to develop the niche. The great work being done by the Scottish Association for Marine Science is a good example of how to develop a niche to reflect the needs of the local area.
The key is to align academic experience, learning and training provision with the current and future needs of employers. An example is the provision of modern apprenticeships in the energy, engineering and food and drink sectors.
We have to be realistic about the fact that regions in Scotland are, in effect, in competition with each other as far as industry and inward migration are concerned. If the aim is to target those of working age, we need to address the question of how competitive Highlands and Islands as a region, and Argyll and Bute specifically, are in ensuring, as some members have already touched on, adequate affordable housing, integration of transport, broadband speed, and—the point that Mike Russell made—the quality of the mobile phone infrastructure.
Employers will play a key role, of course. It is really important that they are not just passive observers but are key partners with Skills Development Scotland and others in preparing a skills plan that is based on not just current needs, but future needs.
Structural funds will play a very important part in providing infrastructure and helping with social skills in training.
Finally, we all know—but it is worth stating—that depopulation and economic activity are inversely related. In 2012, for example—figures for which were the latest that I could find—Argyll and Bute’s employment rate was below the Highlands and Islands average and its unemployment and economic inactivity rates were above the Highlands and Islands averages. So that is the task.
To take the population change figures from 2001 to 2011, Argyll and Bute lost 3.4 per cent of its population, which is the largest area population decline in the region. It also had the lowest employment rate for young people and the largest economic inactivity rate among young people—it was higher than the Scottish average.
Those are the facts from the past, but we have to be positive for the future.
Argyll and Bute has beautiful landscape and breathtaking scenery, of course, but they do not by themselves put food on the table or clothes on the backs of children. The key goals in addressing the population decline are to stimulate and grow the economy and to target the attraction and retention of young people.
The UHI is an impressive and dynamic institution. In conjunction with Skills Development Scotland and employers, it will give local people and incoming students the tools to serve the local community. The area is open for business, and I am convinced that, as the UHI grows and develops and we remedy the infrastructure headaches, the population decline and economic inactivity will be reversed.
I again thank Jamie McGrigor for his initiative in bringing the debate.
12:51
I congratulate Jamie McGrigor on securing the debate. I agree with a lot of what he said, although maybe not with absolutely everything.
Population loss is the most significant and profound issue that Argyll and Bute faces. Argyll and Bute is one of few parts of Scotland that face population decline and the only part of the Highlands and Islands that faces it. We know that the population loss is mainly being experienced by the more rural and peripheral communities. After years of progressive decline, many of those communities are reaching a tipping point at which they will plunge into complete unsustainability.
Good evidence for that became apparent in 2010, when the council proposed closing 26 primary schools, or one third of its school estate. That was a reaction to falling school rolls. However, the effect of closing those schools would have been to hammer the final nails into the coffins of communities that were beginning to die. Thankfully, parents and politicians fought a determined and vigorous campaign and succeeded in halting the proposals. I pay tribute to my colleague Michael Russell for providing leadership and energy in that campaign, which was ultimately successful.
The council should have realised at the outset that the schools issue was a symptom of a deeper malaise, but it was not until the publication of the 2011 census that it began to be aware of the population loss. That was hammered home as its budget settlement began to decline along with the falling population, because, as we know, the grant-aided expenditure formula is population based.
The council’s response so far has been to organise the population summit that Michael Russell touched on. That was finally held a few weeks ago. That in itself was an admission that it did not know how to remedy the problem. Even now, I am unconvinced that it is willing to acknowledge that it is at least in part responsible for the problem. I am unaware of any credible policy response to tackle the problem to date. It is a problem that I have described in many years of witnessing that sad decline as the dead hand of Argyll and Bute Council.
The council is of course quick to deny that and to defend its position. It points to a number of other challenges beyond its control, such as the credit crunch, the ensuing recession and poor connectivity, but it fails to recognise that those challenges affect all other parts of the Highlands and Islands—in some cases, they are affected more profoundly than Argyll and Bute. Removing all those other reasons leads to the only possible conclusion: that it is the policies and practices of the local authority that are responsible for the sad demise of Argyll and Bute.
The patient continues to deny that it has any disease, and it refuses to take any medicine. The culture in the upper echelons of Argyll and Bute Council is that of an organisation that exercises power by saying no—saying no to the aspirations of individuals, saying no to the aspirations of businesses and social enterprises, and saying no to the aspirations of communities. If people are unable to fulfil their reasonable aspirations, they go elsewhere. It is as simple as that.
12:56
I recognise Jamie McGrigor for bringing the motion to the chamber. The population summit that has been described stems from the work of a community planning partnership and, with my community empowerment hat on, I will take a moment to recognise a community planning partnership that is uniquely placed to provide a forum where all the public bodies that have an input on the matter can work together.
The Deputy First Minister—the Cabinet Secretary for Finance, Employment and Sustainable Growth at the time—was pleased to contribute to that summit by speaking and taking questions on how the Government can support the work that is being done.
Population decline does not come under the remit of any one authority or agency; it can be dealt with only through partnership. At a time when improvements to the work of CPPs have been coming forward from Audit Scotland, and when we are updating their role and function through the Community Empowerment (Scotland) Bill, this is an example of the sort of cross-cutting issue that it is right to tackle in the forum of the CPP.
Looking at the demographics, we can clearly see the population challenges that are being faced, with an older, dispersed and gradually declining population. The picture is more mixed than might at first be obvious. That is not to take away from the direction of what is happening and the challenge that exists; it is to see in that the seeds of how, as a country and through local agencies, we can attract people.
In the 10 years to 2013, more people moved into Argyll and Bute than moved out. The population decline was brought about by deaths outnumbering births. In the past two years, Argyll and Bute had a net loss of people through out-migration in the 16-to-29 age group, which David Stewart pointed out, although there was a net gain in all the other working-age age groups from 30 to 65.
Making any place a sustainable and vibrant community depends on a whole set of factors coming together. That is as valid for a village or a county as it is for a country. I recognise the thrust of where members are coming from. The issue of opportunities for work involves the Government putting in place the right economic support and the right infrastructure and, more broadly, opportunities for a fulfilling life. That means schools, health facilities and the places where communities can come together. It also involves a physical environment that is conducive to all of that. In that regard, with the Arrochar Alps, Iona and Cowal, Argyll and Bute does not need much help from the Government to be an inspiring and beautiful place to choose to live.
On the other two matters, there is a lot that we can do and are doing. The programme for government sets out a range of measures that are very relevant to Argyll and Bute and will help to tackle inequality, ensuring that the region flourishes.
Transport links have been discussed extensively. Funding of £14.2 million is going towards improving the A82 between Pulpit Rock and Crianlarich; we have already improved the A83 at the Rest and Be Thankful, with £9 million; there are further works at Glen Kinglas and elsewhere; and the task force that has already been mentioned is addressing the problem of continuous access, which everyone recognises and would wish to be brought in. We are also rolling out road equivalent tariff to Bute to further boost connectivity.
Connectivity these days is not just about moving vehicles; it is also about internet connections.
It is vital to mention every part of Argyll and Bute that is affected. I am sure that the minister will want to recognise that RET in its final roll-out will also go to the island of Mull, which needs it very badly.
Yes indeed. We have a full roll-out in effect from October. The nature of Argyll and Bute means that sometimes I find that there are so many names on the list that I could spend the whole of my time going through it. I do not mean to leave anywhere out. Argyll and Bute includes a diverse set of communities, all of which will benefit.
I have for example a list of 17 places that are benefiting from community broadband, which I will not occupy my time by reading out. That support is there for those that are not being reached by the mainstream project, which has been referred to already as the largest such project in Europe. There will be 800km of new fibre on land and 400km of subsea cables. The project is vast.
It is important that the programme of extending broadband infrastructure will cover 85 per cent of premises, whereas wholly commercial development, without Government intervention, would have reached only 28 per cent. That is being brought about because of our Government intervention.
Although I agree that that big project is very welcome, does the minister agree that the areas that are left out are left at a considerable disadvantage, especially in the tourism market, and that those areas that are connected have an enormous advantage? Things are very difficult for some businesses.
I certainly agree that it is very important for any business to be able to connect. As I referred to before, community broadband Scotland is targeting the work for community broadband solutions. That will affect communities and localities and bring that benefit to those that will not benefit from the mainstream roll-out. That is our way of ensuring that broadband of the proper quality that is demanded by these communities can reach every possible corner of Scotland, including in Argyll and Bute.
That is not the only thing that is vital for the economy. There is regeneration going on, through the regeneration capital fund to improve Dunoon pier and tax increment financing for Oban north pier. The people and communities fund is supporting people across the region. The empowering communities fund, which will shortly be detailed by the Government, will undoubtedly offer more opportunities. The small business bonus scheme in Argyll and Bute is helping a tremendous proportion. More than half of all business properties are now paying zero or reduced business rates—one of the higher figures in the country. The Community Empowerment (Scotland) Bill, which I am trying to put through Parliament, will allow the local council to adopt local business rates schemes to further build on that. That will help local authorities tackle areas that need additional business rates support.
Highlands and Islands Enterprise has in the first three quarters of 2014-15 created or retained 97 full-time equivalent jobs. There has been a £5 million increase in business turnover. We have the European marine science park and the Scottish Power renewables investment in the Sound of Islay.
There are all kinds of business projects going on, but perhaps what we need is an overarching strategy, with everybody continuing to come together. Recognising the challenges and the need for effective partnership, Argyll and Bute Council is setting up an economic forum, which is due to meet next month. There is a tourism summit on 17 March. I will be visiting Argyll and Bute very soon to discuss how we can further boost the economy and keep working together to ensure that the whole region flourishes. I will be sure to raise there all the important issues that have been aired in today’s debate.
13:04 Meeting suspended.