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The next item of business is consideration of Parliamentary Bureau motion S6M-21126, in the name of Graeme Dey, on behalf of the Parliamentary Bureau, on approval of a Scottish statutory instrument.
Motion moved,
That the Parliament agrees that the Prisoners (Early Release) (Miscellaneous Amendment and Transitional Provisions) (Scotland) Regulations 2026 [draft] be approved.—[Graeme Dey]
20:50
I rise to speak against this SSI, which, if passed tonight, will mean that any prisoner who is sentenced to four years or less will automatically be released after serving just 30 per cent of their sentence. No ifs, no buts, and no governor’s veto—no matter how dangerous a prisoner may appear, there is no power to prevent their release.
Let us examine which criminals we are talking about. As of February this year, there were more than 1,500 eligible short‑term prisoners, of whom 43 per cent were in prison for non‑sexual crimes of violence and about a third were in prison for crimes against society or crimes of dishonesty. They will be automatically back on our streets and automatically back in our communities.
The cabinet secretary’s justification at the Criminal Justice Committee was that automatic release at 30 per cent of sentences is necessary to keep prisons “safe and effective” and that it could reduce the population by up to 312 individuals. However, members will remember that, in November 2024, the Parliament was asked to change the automatic release point from 50 per cent of sentences to 40 per cent. In committee, the question was put plainly to the cabinet secretary: did that change ease the prison population?
Despite that reduction and the repeated so-called emergency releases, the prison population rose from 8,350 in February 2025 to a record 8,430 in October 2025. In fact, the success—or otherwise—of the move to 40 per cent is not even due for statutory review until next year. The reduction to 40 per cent has not even been assessed yet, and here we are being asked to reduce the figure further, to 30 per cent.
Presiding Officer, I will tell you what is not reducing: crime. Since 2021, recorded crime is up by 6 per cent, sexual crime is up by 10 per cent, shoplifting is up by 137 per cent and violent crime is up by 13 per cent—all of which stands to reason, since the reoffending rate is at about 44 per cent.
As the member said, it was only a year ago that such prisoners were serving 50 per cent of their sentence, and we are being asked to agree tonight that that should decrease to 30 per cent. Does the member agree that sentencing is already controversial for the general public? It is very hard for the public to understand what our sentencing system is now. With this proposal, it will be even more confusing. Does he further agree that making this permanent change is not the way to manage prisoners?
I do agree. I think that Pauline McNeill made that exact point in committee very eloquently. The public will not understand this. They will also not understand why the cabinet secretary comes to the Criminal Justice Committee and to this chamber saying, “Remember, short sentences don’t work,” and is now asking us to bring in a measure that makes short sentences even shorter, further reducing the time for rehabilitation.
We must not forget that there are alternatives to letting criminals go free, such as proper rehabilitation programmes, completing construction of the overdue Highland and Glasgow prisons and having in place a serious strategy to reduce reoffending. We must be clear that it is not the case that we must vote for the SSI or bad things will happen—it is a case of voting for the SSI and bad things will happen.
In one of the final acts of this Parliament, I urge colleagues to stand with victims, to stand with communities and to stand with justice and vote against the SSI.
20:54
It is important to remember that Scotland is not alone in wrestling with a very high prison population. Between October 2023 and September 2025, the previous and current United Kingdom Governments released more than 62,000 prisoners early. I say that not for a minute to demur from my responsibilities, but merely to make the point that any suggestion that others, if they were in my place, would be making radically different decisions in the current circumstances is, quite simply, not credible.
The rise in the prison population is driven by an increase in long-term prisoners who are serving long-term sentences. There is, of course, a long-term shift away from very short-term sentences. The reality is that there is no single or quick solution to address the rise in the prison population, and we must continue to pursue a range of measures across our justice system. In response to the immediate need for further action, the regulations will change from 40 to 30 per cent the proportion of the custodial sentences that some short-term prisoners are required to serve before they are automatically released.
The change is necessary to alleviate the persistent pressure on our dedicated prison staff, whom I remain grateful to for the vital work that they carry out each and every day. I have not reached this decision lightly. However, I believe that the change is proportionate to the risks that we face. The proposed exclusions for those who are serving sexual and domestic abuse offences strike the right balance between recognising the concerns of victims while supporting a sustained—not temporary—reduction in the rise in the short-term prisoner population against persistent increases overall. The change could deliver a sustained reduction of between 239 and 312 individuals.
The governor’s veto does not exist in the normal release process, and it never has. What the regulations will do, if approved, is to alter the standard point of release for some short-term prisoners.
The action that the Government has taken has had a positive impact. Our modelling indicates that the prison population today would be around 260 to 390 prisoners higher without the Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Act 2025, and a further 130 to 230 prisoners higher without the most recent emergency release. That would mean a population of between nearly 8,800 or in excess of 9,000 if we had not taken the difficult decisions to alleviate pressure on the prison system.
This action has to complement other steps that we have taken. We have optimised the existing capacity in the estate by 400 additional spaces compared with 2024; we have provided the Scottish Prison Service with capital funding to construct two new prisons; and we are, of course, increasing investment in community justice, which is far more effective than short-term sentences.
I will endeavour to stick to my time, so that I do not incur your wrath, Presiding Officer. I will briefly say that we must move forward together and consider the sentencing and penal policy commission recommendations while recognising that prison will always be for those who pose the greatest harm.
We can all critique the past and debate the future—we can and must do that—but the decision for Parliament tonight is about what we do now to protect the health, safety and wellbeing of those who live and work in our prisons. Right now, doing nothing is not an option; we must act tonight.
The question on the motion will be put at decision time.
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