Scotland’s Census
The next item of business is a debate on motion S4M-08461, in the name of Fiona Hyslop, on Scotland’s census.
15:51
It gives me great pleasure to open the debate on the results of the 2011 census in Scotland, which was carried out by the Registrar General for Scotland. Those results tell us who we are and how we work and live in Scotland today.
The 2011 census marks 150 years since the National Records of Scotland—formerly the General Register Office for Scotland—took responsibility for organising the census in Scotland. The census was carried out at the same time as, but organised, processed and delivered independently from, the censuses in the rest of the United Kingdom.
It was this Parliament that decided which questions we should ask all the people living in Scotland. Throughout the planning, information gathering and processing, the census has been subject to external examination, not least by the UK Statistics Authority, which has designated the census results as national statistics, confirming that they are produced using robust professional standards of quality and reliability.
Detailed statistics from the census describe the characteristics of an area or community, such as how many men and women there are and their ages, ethnic group and educational level. The answers that people give help Government to develop policies and initiatives to help local authorities to plan services and to make effective use of resources that benefit the people of Scotland. They help to inform businesses and planning for a wide range of third sector and private sector bodies. Decisions are taken every day using census statistics, helping to provide services from the cradle to the grave and informing decisions on the number of places in schools, how many houses we should build and how many care homes, hospitals and fire services we need and where.
Today the census is the only survey of its kind to ask everyone in Scotland the same questions at the same time. Nothing else provides the richness and range of information that the census offers. It is widely acknowledged as playing a fundamental and unique role in the provision of comprehensive and robust population statistics, and I thank all those who have worked so hard in making the 2011 census a success.
To date there have been six releases of data from the 2011 census by the National Records of Scotland. That data covers population, household characteristics, ethnicity, identity, religion, language, health, housing, education and the labour market, and information on those topics is available from national level down to local level.
So, what does the 2011 census tell us about the people of Scotland? First, there are more people living in Scotland than ever before, and we have a population high of 5,295,403. The population is not spread evenly across the country: in the Western Isles and Highland there are only nine people per km2, whereas in Glasgow there are more than 3,300 living in the equivalent space. Just two per cent of our population live on the more than 90 islands of Scotland. Providing services to remote rural communities and to those in densely populated areas presents different challenges for the Government and for policymakers. The census helps us to plan those services.
Our household structures are changing, and understanding the type of changes helps us to plan our housing and community needs for the future. More people are living in Scotland now who are from a minority ethnic group than ever before. That change in our ethnic profile is not so surprising when the census shows that 7 per cent of people in Scotland were born outside the UK. Such migration brings an increase in the number of languages that are spoken in Scotland—178 separate languages were recorded as being spoken by 10 or more people in Scotland. Even with that linguistic diversity, only 1 per cent of people in Scotland said that they were unable to speak English well and just 0.2 per cent reported that they could not speak English at all.
Although more of us come from different countries than ever before, 83 per cent of us consider ourselves Scottish. The population growth between the 2001 and 2011 censuses of almost 5 per cent was the largest increase between two censuses in 100 years. Some of that growth was due to natural increase. Between the beginning of 2002 and the end of 2011, there were 5,200 more births than deaths. It is important that academics, commentators, the media and politicians understand that having more births than deaths in a country is most significant for population direction and the dynamic of a society.
Much of the population increase, however, was due to net migration to Scotland and we are proud of the warm welcome that we give migrants to Scotland, encouraging those who want to work hard to build a life here for their families. We know that migrants enrich our culture and our communities with their traditions, skills, food and languages.
The census figures form the basis of our annual population figures and projections and the latest set of projections—published by the National Records of Scotland only last month, on 6 November—show that the population is expected to continue increasing, growing by 9 per cent over the next 25 years, with almost three quarters of that growth coming from net migration. There is always uncertainty when projecting into the future. That figure of 9 per cent is the principal projection, representing the best estimate based on current evidence. The reliability of projections decreases as we look further into the future.
Developed countries around the world face demographic pressures and Scotland is no different. The 2011 census was the first time that the number of people aged over 65 years was greater than the number aged 15 and under. The population projections that were produced on 6 November show that between 2012 and 2037—over 25 years—the number of people over state pension age is projected to increase by 27 per cent in Scotland compared with a projected increase of 31 per cent for the UK as a whole over the same time.
Scotland’s dependency ratio—the number of working age people compared with the number of dependents—is growing, although our position is not as challenging as that of the rest of the UK. As a key driver of sustainable economic growth, achieving population growth—in particular among those of working age—is arguably one of the most significant tasks facing Scotland and other advanced economies.
The fact that our population is growing and ageing was underlined by last month’s Institute for Fiscal Studies report. Although highly uncertain, the IFS projections show the risks of remaining part of the UK and therefore underline the urgent need for Scotland to achieve independence to tackle that legacy of low relative growth in the economy and the population.
I am grateful to the minister for taking an intervention. Does the minister accept that what the Institute for Fiscal Studies says in part is that the population of Scotland is expected to age more rapidly and that the consequences of that for the Government in Scotland, were Scotland independent, would be even greater than the consequences for the UK as it currently stands?
The projections are for between 2012 and 2037—over 25 years. As I have just stated, the number of people over state pension age in Scotland over that period is projected to increase by 27 per cent compared with a 31 per cent increase for the UK, so the figure is greater for the UK than it is for Scotland.
The wording of the Labour amendment reflects the period in the census from 2001 to 2011—I acknowledge that—but it does not reflect the position going forward. That is why I have some issues with the amendment as it is presented.
In Scotland, the dependency ratio—the working-age population relative to the pension age and under-16 populations—is projected to be better than the ratio in the rest of the UK until the early 2030s. That fact is acknowledged on pages 145 and 146 of the referendum white paper. The Labour amendment does not recognise the change in policy that we need. Having full powers would allow us to increase our working-age population and to support families with childcare. With independence, we will be able to grow our working-age population by ensuring that young Scots have the opportunity to build a career in Scotland and by making it easier for the highly skilled people who come to study at our universities to work here.
A controlled immigration policy will be another gain. We have set out those matters on pages 267 to 274 of the white paper. There is no doubt that current United Kingdom immigration policy is heavily influenced by the priorities of the south-east of England and is based on the values of the current UK Government, which is driven by a desire to reduce the number of incoming migrants. A controlled immigration system that is based on the foundations of, and is similar to, the points and tier system but that enables us to attract highly skilled working-age people who will work and pay taxes will aid Scotland to achieve sustainable economic growth. Our immigration system will be robust and secure and will take into account Scottish values and principles of fairness and compassion.
Interestingly, the European Commission has recently confirmed:
“The vast majority of migrants go to the UK to work, and they actually contribute more to the welfare system than they take out, purely because they tend to be younger than the average population, and of working age”.
That explodes the myth that migrants drain resources. In Scotland, we want to welcome those who have so much to offer. Boosting Scotland’s population has been a priority for successive Administrations since the re-establishment of the Scottish Parliament in 1999. The results of the census allow us all to judge how well we are doing that. The large growth between the censuses is a major achievement for our country.
The census is our national stocktake. We cannot predict the future with any certainty, but the census gives us the information that we need to take decisions about Scotland today. I am proud that we have such high-quality and impartial information available to us all. I invite members to support the motion in my name.
I move,
That the Parliament welcomes the results of the 2011 census in Scotland, which present a detailed picture of a vibrant, diverse and dynamic nation, as set out in the six publications to date covering population, households, identity, ethnicity, religion, language, marital status, qualifications and economic status.
16:02
Like the cabinet secretary, I thank all those who worked so hard and diligently to bring the 2011 census to us. It is often not an easy task, but it is important and we value it. Of course, censuses are historical methods of gleaning information—a point on which my colleague Lewis Macdonald will expand—but they remain an important tool.
I rise to move the amendment in my name and to speak in the debate as a member of a majority group—not the majority group at present in the Parliament, but certainly the majority group in demographic terms, because we learn from the census that women make up 51.5 per cent of the population of the country. The census provides us with interesting information about the population of Scotland. It does what a census should do, which is to allow us to pick out trends. Perhaps most important, it gives local and national Government, the voluntary sector, businesses and those who provide services an idea of the trends, which they can use to plan efficiently for the future.
Some intriguing facts emerge from the survey. For example, just over 1 per cent of the population speak Gaelic but, by a coincidental quirk, some 1 per cent of the population speak no or very little English at all. We learn that 86 per cent of households in Aberdeenshire have a car or van available to them whereas in Glasgow the figure drops to 49 per cent. That particular statistic can of course be partly accounted for by the rural nature of Aberdeenshire and the need for people to have their own transport, but it will in large measure be a result of the differing economic profiles of the two areas.
Will the member take a short intervention?
I am happy to do so, Mr Stevenson.
It is just to help the member. Aberdeenshire has the highest proportion of people living in a rural area of any county in mainland Scotland—the proportion is even higher than in the Highlands—so perhaps the figures are not so surprising.
I think that I made that point before Stewart Stevenson intervened. I said that the rural nature of Aberdeenshire was probably the cause but that the economic diversity between Aberdeenshire and Glasgow perhaps accounted for some of the difference, too. I do not think that even he would deny that.
I hope that the Government takes into account such matters when planning and—more important—funding bus and train services in constituencies such as mine, where the car ownership level is even lower than the average. A similarly stark fact is that, in the Orkney Islands, the Shetland Islands and Aberdeenshire, 3 per cent of the economically active population were unemployed, whereas that figure rose to 10 per cent in Glasgow.
We welcome very much the increase in the number of people who live in Scotland. Like the cabinet secretary and others who are here today, I have been a member of the Parliament long enough to have heard many of the debates over the years about what we need to do to increase Scotland’s population, so it is good to see the work of Governments of whatever complexion beginning to bring dividends to our country. There was a time when we were almost despairing about the drop in Scotland’s population. It is fortunate that the position appears no longer to be as critical as it was, but we must not take our eyes from that.
The number of one-person households—they form 35 per cent of households—bears further investigation, to establish whether they involve mainly older people whose circumstances mean that they are living alone or predominantly young people who are perhaps living outside the parental home for the first time. Such questions suggest that we need to consider carefully our priorities for house building in the private and social rented sectors, for example.
As the motion suggests, overall, the census demonstrates how diverse and dynamic Scotland is. It gives us a snapshot of Scotland.
We must pay heed to a number of the statistics that have been revealed to us. Nowhere are they more stark than in relation to our ageing population. The strapline for the census was, “Shaping our future”. None of us can predict with certainty what our personal, political or constitutional future might look like, but of some things we can be certain. The number of people who are aged 80 and over has increased by 19 per cent since the previous census, in 2001. We have arrived at a situation in which our population is ageing faster than that of the UK as a whole. For the first time, more people in Scotland are aged 65 and over than are aged under 15, which must give us pause for thought.
Professor David Bell’s report “Social Protection in Scotland” suggests that that trend will continue. It predicts that the number of Scots pensioners will increase by 80 per cent between 2010 and 2060. Most of that increase is to occur from 2010 to 2035. Medical advances, better nutrition than previous generations enjoyed and a greater understanding of the value of keeping healthy mean that people are living longer. Of course, we all want that trend to continue, but we must recognise that it brings challenges in how we support and care for our older citizens.
In its “Fiscal Sustainability of an Independent Scotland” report, the Institute for Fiscal Studies predicts that spending on health services, long-term care, pensions and public service pensions will grow more in Scotland than in the UK in the next 50 years.
Will the member give way?
I am happy to do so.
Patricia Ferguson is in her last 30 seconds.
I will let Patricia Ferguson carry on.
I am sorry, Presiding Officer.
The Scottish Government’s fiscal commission noted that Scotland’s dependency ratio will increase more rapidly than that of the UK, which reflects the particularly sharp increase in Scotland’s pension-age population.
The challenge for us is to have an honest debate about how we manage the growing numbers of people who will have support needs in coming years and how we will find the money to pay for that. It is clear that we put ourselves at a distinct disadvantage if we decide to separate from the rest of the UK. The evidence suggests that, if we took control of our welfare benefits and all the issues that go with that, we would need to raise additional revenue to meet the increased costs of state pensions, not to mention the cost of setting up an entire bureaucracy to underpin a new structure.
You need to close.
Sharing risk and supporting one another are a key component of the political union that is the UK. The evidence from the census strengthens that case.
I move amendment S4M-08461.1, to insert at end:
“; notes that the census demonstrates that Scotland’s population is ageing faster than that of the rest of the UK, and considers that this presents major challenges to policy makers and to those delivering services in Scotland’s communities.”
16:10
I am pleased to contribute to this debate on the results of the 2011 census, which is in fact the 23rd census.
The results of the census inform and shape the future of public policy in a number of areas. However, when one considers how the questions have changed over time and the type of information that we have collected in the past, it is clear that changes in society are as much reflected in the questions asked as they are in the answers received. Indeed, the first census of 1801 had a strong focus on identifying manpower for the navy and militia and on ensuring that there was a sufficient supply of corn to feed the populace.
Of course, these days the census is very much about planning for the future provision of our public services and public policy in general, and in that context there are some very interesting initial findings. For instance, the fact that Edinburgh has seen an 18 per cent increase in children under the age of five raises significant questions about primary places in the capital. Only a month ago, parents across the city were warned that there was little chance of their child getting a place anywhere other than their local primary. We now have confirmation that the situation is not set to improve anytime soon and indeed there could be worse in store. In that respect, the census merely backs up the trends that we already have empirical and anecdotal evidence of.
Does Cameron Buchanan agree that the increase in the number of under-fives is a good thing for the population? I know that it brings policy challenges, but that increase in the number of young people and families is a good thing for the city and the country.
Certainly I agree, but we are seeing an awful lot of school closures at the same time, and those two things do not go together. The problem is that people want their children to go to the good schools, not the bad schools—that is part of the mindset.
The census backs up the trends and, although we have a lot of young people in Edinburgh, our population is ageing. At the Local Government and Regeneration Committee we have consistently had evidence of that change and the pressures it is placing on already stretched health and social care budgets, which is the very point that Patricia Ferguson made.
I was interested to note the statistics on marital status, which, at first glance, seem quite straightforward. There has been a 5 per cent drop in those who are married and a corresponding increase of 5 per cent in those who are single. Indeed, I would encourage anyone who is single to visit Edinburgh in my region. Edinburgh boasts a population, 45 per cent of which is single—it is behind only Glasgow and Dundee in the lonely heart stakes—so aspiring romantics should head for the capital, where they are bound to meet like-minded singletons. Whether they like them is another matter, for which I am not responsible.
However, here lies a warning. We are waiting for the publication of further Scottish Government statistics and even when we have all the evidence to hand we should be careful in extrapolating any trends or interpreting the data. For example, within the marriage statistics, the “single” label is used in a fairly strict legal sense and basically refers to anyone who has not yet married or entered a civil partnership. Anyone who identifies themselves as having a partner is included in the single category, which changes the dynamic of the statistic entirely. For the purposes of planning and general information gathering, I would suggest that it is of far greater use to know how many couples are out there, rather than how many are legally married or not. The old adage of there being lies, damned lies and statistics holds true, and we should approach the data with suitable caution.
We must also be aware of the broader limitations of the census and we should not read too much into it. Given its comprehensive nature, it gives us a valuable insight, particularly into the groups, both geographical and demographic, that are sometimes overlooked. However, that comprehensiveness of population knowledge comes at a price. The census must strike a balance between seeking information and not seeking so much that it becomes off-putting for those who fill in the forms and too costly and complex to process the results. Hence we have a strict approach to the questions that are considered and the associated tick-box answers.
Although I see no alternative to that approach, we cannot overlook the problems that it throws up. There was some controversy over the religious question in 2011, with the British Humanist Association campaigning to encourage people who were not actively religious to say so. Indeed its campaign argued that the religious question was a cultural identifier as opposed to a question about active or passive worship. That is an important point. I need hardly say that religion and people’s feelings towards it are complex. I suggest that having relatively simplistic questions on the subject means that a good deal of wriggle room is left for subjective answers. Put simply, the question may be written the same way on every census form, but it will not be read with the same uniformity.
Leading on from that point, I would contend that the very active campaign by the BHA means that it is very difficult now to point to any changes in the figures on religious observance and talk with absolute certainty about changes in the number of those who are practising religion.
Some people may well have answered that question differently because of not a change in their behaviour but, rather, a change in their interpretation of the question. I am not questioning the trend but raising the issue whether people are identifying less and less with a religion, and drawing attention to the fact that the census form is perhaps not the medium to gather data about such a complex issue.
We move to the open debate and speeches of four minutes.
16:15
I welcome the opportunity to speak in the debate.
Civilisations around the world have been using censuses for around 5,000 years and possibly longer. The first known ones were carried out in ancient Egypt and Greece. The practice has continued in Scotland because it provides the most detailed snapshot possible of our nation and its people. As Cameron Buchanan said, we have carried out 23 censuses.
The trends and changes that censuses reveal allow us to develop informed policy with a clear vision of what is likely to lie ahead. However, there are limits to their use and they cannot be used as a crystal ball. The Registrar General for Scotland makes projections for future population estimates based on the figures in the census. The standard of the methodology used in those figures is no doubt professional, but let us look at how population projections vary.
In 2012, the population of Scotland was estimated at 5,413,000. Just one decade earlier, in 2002, figures calculated using census statistics projected that the population in 2013 would fall to 4,970,000. Even with the most rigorous analysis, the 2002 projection turned out to be half a million people off the mark. For the future, the difference between the 2002 and 2012 projections for the population in 2027 is 814,000. The point that I am making is that although the census is the most accurate head count that we have, trends do not necessarily continue and sometimes vary dramatically.
The 2011 census was certainly innovative. It included new questions, for example on language, national identity and long-term health conditions. One of the things that the 2011 census confirmed was that our population is still an ageing one. It is worth noting, however, that Scotland’s ageing population challenge is by no means unique or insurmountable. It is a challenge that faces every country in the European Union, and more around the world, as a result of people living longer, healthier lives. In many ways, it is something to celebrate.
Indeed, University of Edinburgh research published in the British Medical Journal this month shows that the demographic time bomb—if I may use the expression—may not be as big a problem as many claim it to be. The researchers argue that the standard way of measuring dependency ratios is inherently flawed. In their view, the ratio of elderly dependants to working-age people is actually falling. According to the research, as the health of older people improves, the prospect of elderly people having longer working lives increases.
Therefore, while it is important that we remember not to conflate old age with dependency, the Scottish Government is right to take forward the direction set by the Christie commission through the integration of health and social care, the pursuit of preventative spend policies and an overriding focus on making services work better.
The 2011 census results for my constituency of North East Fife were similar to Scotland’s as a whole, with the exception that the proportion of people aged 16 to 29 was considerably higher than the national average, at 22.4 per cent compared with 18.5 per cent across Scotland, while the proportion of those aged over 65 was slightly higher than the national average.
However, more generally, the simple fact is that Scotland’s economy would grow if the proportion of economically active people increased. In practical terms, notwithstanding what I said earlier, that means increasing the number of people of working age in employment. There are many levers that could be used to make that happen. I take the view that the increase in the number of overseas-born people in the past decade is a positive and not a negative. I believe that there should be easier access for international students and graduates.
Can you start to wind up, please?
Okay.
In the UK, that is unlikely to happen. David Cameron implies that immigrants are a drain on public services. The UK Border Agency’s reluctance to provide visas for international students in Scotland is increasingly a barrier to expanding the number of international students who come to study and work here and who, if they were allowed to come, would spend money and help us to grow our economy.
As the white paper illustrates, independence will allow Scotland to take a different approach—one that is more suited to its needs.
I remind members that they must keep to their time limit, which is four minutes.
16:19
This is an important subject. The census data is used to inform and plan a wide variety of services such as employment, health and housing. The census is our main source of information about major changes in demographics in Scotland.
The number of people from ethnic minorities in Glasgow has grown by almost 50,000, from 41,900 in 2001 to 91,600 in 2011. As a percentage of the population, there has been growth, from 7.2 per cent in 2001 to 15.4 per cent in 2011.
I am glad to be focusing on information about the increasing diversity in Scotland in general and in Glasgow in particular, where it has been a reality for a long time. Glasgow started taking in large numbers of asylum seekers in 1999. Upon being granted refugee status, those people found work and set up homes across Scotland.
Did we really need to wait 14 years for the evidence that Scotland is becoming much more ethnically diverse? My argument is that, unfortunately, we did. There seems to be a disconnect between the changes in Scotland and the services that we provide. Whenever a community asks for support, it is required to produce evidence. The information that is available is in the census, which cannot give a good indication of emerging need and is often dismissed as being out of date as soon as the information is released.
I have several examples from Glasgow. One is that pupils in Glasgow’s schools use up to 40 different languages. Schools are genuinely struggling with a lack of resources. I am sure that the Scottish Government could assist with that.
Another example is the work that I am doing with my colleagues in support of women who have been subjected to female circumcision and mutilation. I know from people working in the field that despite the fact that thousands of women from countries that practise female genital mutilation now live in Scotland, many front-line health and child protection workers do not believe that it is an issue in Scotland. I do not understand that.
The census data shows that we have a lot more ethnic minorities living in Scotland now than we did 10 years ago, although that does not automatically make Scotland a diverse and vibrant place. Effective policy making and on-going monitoring of changes need to be coupled with evidence-based policy making.
I call on the Scottish Government once again to use the census data to ensure that all people within our communities receive equal opportunities in employment and service provision, which currently is not the case.
I hold John Swinney to the commitment that he made on 9 October 2013 to take action on the underemployment shown in the 2011 census.
16:23
Statisticians and demographers see the census as quite a rare gold standard. I suppose we could say that it is a bit like the world cup: it only comes around every few years and it is the highlight of the period.
Unlike all the other surveys, the census is the best at showing exactly how Scotland is, rather than how it is estimated to be. That really matters, because the publications that are based on the census include the annual survey of hours and earnings, the Scottish health survey and the social attitudes survey, which all really influence Government policy and resources.
I want to make a few observations about the census based on what I have seen from the data, which might be relevant to some decisions. The relevant ministerial responsibilities are sport, equality, housing and welfare and parliamentary business, so perhaps I will simply be putting points on the record.
Given that I am a constituency member, my eyes first turned to the data from my constituency of Edinburgh Central, where I learned that the median age of 29 for women and 30 for men meant that it was second only to Glasgow Kelvin in youth. That sounds appealing, but imagine how I felt when I realised that, compared with my constituents, I am now officially middle aged. What that means for Sandra White I will leave for another day.
Members: Oh!
I take that back. [Interruption.] I can more than imagine how she feels, Presiding Officer. I heard your comment.
Like 50 per cent of my constituents, I do not have a car, and like 53 per cent of them, I have a degree. I am single and unmarried, and in that respect I am like 63.3 per cent of my constituents.
In light of our debate a fortnight ago, I note that Edinburgh Central does not win the accolade of being the gayest constituency in Scotland—that goes to Malcolm Chisholm’s Edinburgh Northern and Leith constituency, with 427 civil partnerships in comparison with 286 in Edinburgh Central. However, more worrying is that, after Glasgow Kelvin’s third place with a score of 249, the number drops away sharply. I would like to think that our inner cities are magnets for same-sex couples for the same reason that they act as magnets for all types of residents, but I suspect that other factors may be at play outwith our cities.
The census also confirmed the experience of community councils and the concerns of tenants groups that the size of the private rented sector has exploded. Now 39 per cent of all Edinburgh Central households are in private rented housing—almost a doubling in the past decade. In the City Centre ward, which is home to Georgian townhouses, 45 per cent of households pay rent to a private landlord every month for the roof over their head. That changes services and neighbourhoods, and it creates new regulatory challenges for local authorities. Perhaps local authorities will experience difficulties in filling primary schools but, at the same time, they will need more and more staff and resources to enforce landlord registration.
One thing that worries me is the health of our democracy. Edinburgh Central’s total population is 84,000. The population over 18 is 75,440, which is the highest in the country. However, I know from looking at the electoral register that only 55,300 people are registered to vote. Where are those missing 20,000? Some will be students, but in no other constituency are there more residents than people registered on the electoral roll. Only about 15 per cent of residents were born outside the European Union, and many of them will be naturalised or Commonwealth citizens.
I note in passing that, under the procedures set out in the 14th amendment, the United States allocates members of the legislature to states based on their population rather than electoral registration. Edinburgh is cosmopolitan, but also transient. We must be aware of that and take action to resolve the situation.
I offer my most fulsome apologies to my colleague from Glasgow Kelvin.
I should think so, because I am going to tell her.
16:27
I, too, welcome the results of the census, particularly with regard to the new question about identity. I have a lot to say about that, but I will also talk about migration, citizenship and freedom, which are interests of mine.
First, 83 per cent of respondents indicated that they felt Scottish. That is important because that is all about who we are as Scottish people living here in Scotland. I feel that way. If I was asked in the census how I felt—and I was asked that question—I would tick the “Scottish” box. That is because I feel Scottish—and not only do I feel Scottish, but I was made welcome in this country very quickly as somebody who is Scottish. No one, whether they are a member in this Parliament or anybody else, would be justified in asking me why I should not feel Scottish. That is very important.
The question shows how Scotland is leading Europe and the world. There is an idea here that people can hold multiple identities while still keeping a very strong Scottish identity. Unfortunately, so far, that does not reflect what they have in their pocket. In my pocket I have an identity card that says that I am French. However, we do not have a Scottish identity card. It is quite strange for a nation that feels so proudly Scottish—as I do—not to have the paperwork for that identity. Is that important? Is it important to have that paperwork? I see Cameron Buchanan shaking his head. I agree—it is not that important. It is like the shirts that people wear. Marco Biagi mentioned football, and although I do not have a lot of time just now to watch international football in my local pub, when I do so, I have no problem wearing a Scottish shirt, a French shirt or even—because my mother happens to be Portuguese—a Portuguese shirt.
How can the member say he is Scottish with that Maurice Chevalier accent?
I thank the member.
I just mentioned my mother being Portuguese. Portugal is like Scotland; it is the same kind of country with the same population and a shared history of migration. A lot of people have migrated out of this country and people are still doing so today. We are talking today for the first time about a modern Scotland retaining its youth, which is very different from what happened in the past. A modern Scotland will attract people from across the world because it is seen as the land of opportunity, and that is reflected in the census.
I was delighted to see that Dundee and Aberdeen are becoming more multicultural and diverse. This afternoon, pupils from Albyn School in Aberdeen came to see us, and one of the children who asked a question came from France. I was astonished at that.
I would also like to talk about population growth. The way to grow our population is not only through inward migration or by asking people not to migrate away from Scotland.
You need to bring your remarks to a close, Mr Allard.
I will close straight away, Presiding Officer.
There is a great possibility for a baby boom. We could have more and more children. There is a 5 per cent increase in the number of under-fives and we could do a lot more in the years to come. I am already waiting for the next census to come out.
16:31
It is a great pleasure to follow Christian Allard because, in welcoming the general increase in Scotland’s population over the 10-year period, I also welcome the increase in the ethnic minority population from 2 to 4 per cent, which is a significant reason, but not the only one, for the general increase. As the cabinet secretary reminded us, that increase came about partly because of the encouragement that was given to inward migration by successive Administrations in Scotland.
One of the most interesting, but not so well-known, facts in the census relates to the number of single-person households. At 35 per cent, single persons now make up the largest percentage of households, whereas 50 years ago, they made up, at 14 per cent, the lowest percentage of households. That is a really significant social change that is not often commented on, and it has significant implications for housing and lots of other issues.
The better-known figure is that the number of people who are aged 80 and over increased by 19 per cent in that 10-year period. That issue is much discussed, along with the implications for health and many other policies. However, the situation should not be overstated because the ideal is healthy ageing. Having said that, I think that it presents a significant challenge and, as we have been reminded today, it has become part of the constitutional debate. I do not really want to go into that in too much detail but it is worth quoting—or requoting, because I think that Patricia Ferguson mentioned this—what the Scottish Government’s fiscal commission said, which is that Scotland’s dependency ratio will increase more rapidly than that of the UK. The issue is quite simply the dependency ratio, so when we are having debates about that, that is what we should concentrate on, rather than the absolute number of pensioners, which the cabinet secretary highlighted in comparing Scotland with the UK.
That is really good news about older people, and it is based on lots of reasons, including advances in health. Of course, older people are not the only ones who are living longer. For example, in Edinburgh, the total number of people with learning disabilities who are known to the council increased by an average 5 per cent per year between 2006 and 2012, and the number of children and adults with physical disabilities has also increased. People are now living longer than they would have done in the past. Of course that is good news, but it has implications for services.
The most striking feature of the census was the increase in the number of children aged under five. For Scotland as a whole, the increase was 6 per cent, but for Edinburgh it was 18 per cent. From my local constituency point of view, that was the single most salient fact in the census. Cameron Buchanan alluded to that point, with particular reference to schools.
The City of Edinburgh Council has projected a 20 per cent increase in many of the city’s school rolls until 2019. Many of the spaces that are available in schools are not in the catchment area where there is current demand. That is manifesting itself in my constituency, because seven primary schools either have or will have within the next 12 months extra classrooms in their playgrounds. I welcome the population increase, as did the cabinet secretary, but I have to say that there must have been some deficiencies with the previous administration of the City of Edinburgh Council. I do not want to be too party political about it, but that administration must have known five years ago what the population increase was going to be, yet it still closed schools. We must learn lessons from that.
The other issue that is emerging relates to the number of general practitioner practices, some of which are closing their lists, which affects both young and old people. We must also use the census information to plan services effectively. For example, in 2001 one of the problems with the original costings for free personal care was that people did not have the benefit of the 2001 census, and that is the main reason why the figures were not totally accurate. Let us use the information that we have to plan services effectively.
16:35
The Labour amendment states that
“the census demonstrates that Scotland’s population is ageing faster than that of the rest of the UK”.
Numbers are funny things. Table 4 in the registrar general’s report shows that in 2012 we had 59 people per 100 in dependency, that in 2017 the number will drop to 58 and that in 2022 it will drop to 57. Rod Campbell was right to point to the difficulties with the way in which we calculate the figure, because the way in which it is calculated means that I am considered to be in dependency, as is my good friend Gil Paterson. It is done simply by age, not by whether we are still working and in employment. That is equally true for the rest of the UK—I am not saying that Scotland is any different—and it shows that we need to be careful about the numbers.
Two members have claimed that there have been 23 censuses in Scotland, but I think that there have been 21, because there have been 22 periods of 10 years since 1801 and there was no census in 1941. That is, unless we count the Dál Riata census of approximately 670 AD, which was conducted in part of Scotland by the Irish. In England, of course, the first census was the Domesday book of 1086. However, in modern times, there have probably been 21 censuses in Scotland.
I felt so uncomfortable with what Patricia Ferguson said about cars that I popped out to get the up-to-date numbers. I can tell the chamber that the number of cars per household is substantially lower in London than in Glasgow. The reason for that is not economic; it is that London has a first-class public transport system. Someone who lives in London would probably not want to own a car, and I suspect that I would not, either. The figure for Beijing is higher than that for any city in Scotland, and it is higher than the figure for London. We need to be careful with numbers.
The interesting thing for me is that the figures in table 6 in the registrar general’s report show that I am in a cohort of 137,000 people. In 10 years’ time, should I be spared, I will be in a cohort of 104,000, and five years later I will be in a cohort of 82,000.
As part of my preparation for the debate, I went on to the ScotlandsPeople website and ended up very puzzled. According to the website, in 2012 there were 133,322 registrations, which is so far adrift from the numbers in the report that I had to find out why. To my immense bafflement—I have not yet worked out why this should be the case—a number of births appear multiple times in the registrations. I even found someone in the city of Edinburgh—because they are still living, I will not make specific reference to them—who has been registered three times with three different names. There are quite a lot of examples of that, so we need to be careful. One of my wife’s relatives appears twice in the census because they were counted both at home and while they were away somewhere else.
In my constituency, at least 19 languages are used in the local school in Peterhead. My nephews and nieces are in eight countries around the world. Presiding Officer, migration is an essential part of the modern world and censuses help to measure what is going on.
16:39
It has been a valuable debate, in which even Fiona Hyslop managed to find some favourable points from the report by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which impressed me greatly.
I talked about the fact that there are lies, damned lies and statistics, which was borne out by the dependent Mr Stevenson. I do not know whether there have been 23 censuses in total, but it is certainly the case that there have been 23 modern censuses. I cannot count the Domesday book as one.
Two point seven per cent of people identified themselves as “White: Polish”, which is more than double the national average; heaven knows how many French people there were. The good news is that we are attracting economic migrants but, as many members have said, we must ensure that we are planning to provide extra resources, particularly in education, to ensure that our public services can respond to demographic change.
The debate has produced a number of interpretations of the statistics and a variety of comment on the picture of Scotland that it paints. I discussed some of the shortcomings that I found with the census, but the debate has highlighted one other fundamental flaw with the questionnaire. It tells us who is answering, when they travel, where they work, what they work as, what they believe and a multitude of other things, but it cannot tell us why. That is for us to interpret, extrapolate and guess at.
I am thinking, in particular, of the transport infrastructure debate, in which I called for a joined-up strategy to ensure that people can get where they want, how they want and when they want. When we have a questionnaire that tells us that someone generally travels to work by car, the great unknown for us as policy makers is the reason or reasons why they have overlooked public transport. That is the sort of information that is invaluable in the design of public services.
The other issue that flows from that and from the debate in general is what the future holds for the census. There has been some discussion about possible alternatives, including an e-census or an administrative census. Although a number of members have identified some of the failings of the existing system, I hope that we do not throw out the baby with the bath water with a change that is too dramatic.
The invaluable aspect of the present census is its comprehensive coverage and the fact that, for the past 50 or 60 years, the same questions—more or less—have been asked. I would have to be persuaded that any administrative alternative would achieve the same result and that there would not be groups that would be missed out. It is clear that the potential of an e-census is worth exploring further, because increasing difficulties are already being experienced in engaging with certain groups, such as young men. Anything that makes the census more accessible and easy to fill in must be looked at. We must consider all the options that are available to us and what will deliver the most comprehensive and useful data for policy makers.
In the meantime, I am content to welcome the census and the results that it throws up and, for that reason, I will support the Government motion and Patricia Ferguson’s amendment.
16:42
The cabinet secretary and Patricia Ferguson rightly paid tribute to the people who conducted the 2011 census, but it is important that we do not take their professionalism or the impartiality of a national census for granted.
When Mary and Joseph were required to travel to Bethlehem, the census was designed to enable a poll tax to be collected. That poll tax was as unpopular as the later version in the 1980s. When medieval Scottish and English kings surveyed their kingdoms in the Senchus fer n-Alban and the Domesday book, they, too, had taxation in mind. When the first version of the current census was brought forward in December 2009, it included detailed questions about household incomes and, to many, it looked and felt like the poll tax revisited.
That was one of the reasons why I and other members of the Economy, Energy and Tourism Committee resisted the draft order in question and spent some weeks seeking to achieve some important changes to the questions that would be asked. The then minister, Jim Mather, eventually accepted that questions about income could not be included without putting at risk the consent of the wider public.
The draft order also posed a false choice between Scottish and British, which is a choice that many people do not wish to make. Again, the minister came to agree that a less stark choice made more sense. We debated a number of other issues. For example, we agreed that Africans should be able to identify themselves as African rather than as black, and we dropped the original proposal that the census should count pagans but not Episcopalians.
The point of that process was to achieve a consensus on the census. Such a powerful tool of Government must be subject to effective parliamentary scrutiny, and the questions that are asked or not asked are a matter of legitimate political debate. I am glad that we got there and that we can debate the results of the census in the knowledge that we all agreed that the right questions would be asked in the first place.
We on the Labour side have raised the issue of Scotland’s demographic balance and the challenge posed by a population that is ageing faster than that of the UK as a whole. Of course, as has been said, an ageing population is not an insoluble problem but it poses a challenge to future Governments of whatever party. The census confirms that Scotland’s current over-65 population is 1 per cent greater than that of England and the IFS has pointed out that over the next half century the Scottish people’s median age will increase by six years as opposed to a UK average of only four years.
Does the member accept the figures produced on 6 November that show that between 2012 and 2037 the number of people of state pension age and older will increase by 27 per cent in Scotland but by 31 per cent in the UK?
A very important point is that those figures are starting from a higher base. My point is that, between now and 2062, the median age will increase by more in Scotland than it will in the whole of the UK.
As the cabinet secretary pointed out, the Labour-led devolved Governments in the first and second terms of devolution saw immigration as part of the answer to helping to change the demographic balance and increase the proportion of taxpayers to pensioners in the future population. Clearly, Scottish National Party ministers hold the same view. I guess that the difference between the approach pioneered by Jack McConnell and that now promoted by Alex Salmond lies in our view that increased immigration is best achieved in partnership within the UK while the SNP proposes to increase immigration by leaving the UK. That difference matters because we and our neighbours in England and Wales occupy the same island, share many of the demographic features that have been highlighted today and have had the same systems for managing migration within a single UK market for the past 300 years.
When ministers argue that Scotland needs immigration in a way that England does not, they seem to overlook one vital part of the picture. Operating within a single immigration system under the same rules and on the same island, Scotland in recent years has achieved only half the level of net migration achieved by England next door. That is why Jack McConnell persuaded the then UK Labour Government that Scotland needed a stronger system of incentives for overseas students to stay after graduation and why Labour introduced the fresh talent initiative in Scotland in the context of UK immigration policy.
When, last week, Alex Salmond published his “Scotland’s Future” white paper, he suggested that a UK Tory Government was holding back more migration into Scotland because it did not suit south-east England’s needs as opposed to the needs of the rest of the UK. Indeed, the cabinet secretary made a similar point this afternoon. However, the truth is that, for all its faults, the UK immigration system is not the reason why fewer people have chosen to migrate to Scotland than to England. It is about the choices that people have made and, above all, the opportunities that have been open to them.
What does the member think about the van that the Westminster Government used to tell people who were not born in this country that they should go home?
That is not the point. The point is that in Aberdeen, a city that the member knows well, 16 per cent of the population were born outwith the UK, and they are here because of the many opportunities to train and work in the energy industry. Although that figure is comparable with English cities of similar size, it is double the average for Scotland as a whole.
Fresh talent can be attracted to Scotland, even in the context of an increasingly restrictive UK immigration policy over the last three years, but what we cannot have is a Scottish immigration policy that is different to and separate from that in the rest of this island—unless we want border posts between Scotland and England to control the movement of people who are legal migrants—[Interruption.]
Can the member bring his remarks to a close?
It is a straightforward point. If there are people who are legal migrants in one part of this island but illegal migrants in another, it is inevitable that controls on movement within the island will be required.
Members: Nonsense!
I hear members saying “Nonsense” but I would like them to answer that point rather than simply shouting abuse.
Will the member give way?
The member is winding up now.
I am sure that the cabinet secretary will have the opportunity to respond to the point.
I understand the Government’s need to argue that everything will be better in the event of independence. However, after next September, when I believe that most Scots will vote to remain in the UK, I hope that we will return to the question of how we attract fresh talent to Scotland in the context of UK immigration policy and that we look to develop further the sort of policy that brought so much benefit to Scotland’s demographic balance in the 10 years before the latest census was carried out.
16:49
In closing today’s debate, I thank parliamentary colleagues for an interesting discussion on what might, at first glance, have seemed to be dull and dry facts and figures. The richness of the debate and members’ interest in the statistics—not least in relation to their constituencies—has brought life to the subject.
I say to Lewis Macdonald that independent Ireland—which was his example—has its own immigration and migration policy and is within the common travel area.
Will the cabinet secretary give way?
I ask Lewis Macdonald to let me develop my points; I am about to agree with him on one point. It was appropriate that he relayed the history of the census and the scrutiny that it has been given in Parliament, and Rod Campbell mentioned how innovative it is.
I pay tribute to Kenny Gibson. I am not sure whether he is in the chamber, but he was one of the first members to identify in the chamber in the first session of Parliament the issue of population and the challenges that lie ahead.
I was supportive—as we all were—of the measures that were taken with the fresh talent initiative. Unfortunately, however, the current UK Government has taken away that tool, which is one reason why we believe that we need the powers to make such decisions. We certainly welcomed the initiative at the time.
As the debate has showed, the census figures tell us about Scotland in all its shapes, sizes and guises, and they are important in relation to the policy challenges that lie ahead of us. Hanzala Malik talked about underemployment among ethnic minorities in Glasgow. Malcolm Chisholm, in reflecting on his constituency, also set out some challenges.
The information that the National Records of Scotland has released to date focuses on population and household numbers, aspects of identity and economic factors. There is more to come; the next release of information from the census on 18 December will provide insights into family structures. The answer to Cameron Buchanan’s question about how many people are married and how many are cohabiting will be in that release, as will information on living arrangements, which covers household composition and dependent children. In addition, the release will include information on the number of rooms and overcrowding.
I say to Patricia Ferguson that we will learn about methods of transport that are used to get to work and study. That information will be important in setting out future transport policy, as she identified in relation to her constituency, and in planning transport infrastructure.
All the information is freely available on the Scotland’s census website, together with a range of tools that help to bring the data to life.
At the start of the debate, I mentioned the long history of the census in Scotland; it is one of the longest-running continuous data collections in the country, but what is the future of the census and will we have one in 2021? The 2011 census is successfully providing high-quality statistics that will be used for the next decade. As we have heard today, changes in society have resulted in an increasingly mobile population—Marco Biagi mentioned that—and people regularly move to other areas and countries. That, together with increasing complexity in social structures and a desire for results to be produced more quickly and frequently, presents challenges for the traditional census.
At the same time, improvements in technology and the Government’s commitment to a digital future for Scotland mean that we need to look again at how we can best collect and provide information in the future.
Many members will be aware that the UK Office for National Statistics is consulting on the issue. Two main options are proposed; namely, an online census and a census that is based on administrative data and surveys. We are also considering the best way forward for Scotland. However we decide to collect such information in 2021 and beyond, we will ensure that it continues to meet the needs of all users and that it is of high quality. Parliament’s views and wishes will, of course, be a key part of our deliberations to determine what we will do in the future.
In discussing the opportunities and challenges of an ageing population, Rod Campbell made the important comment that we should not equate old age with dependency, and Malcolm Chisholm also brought something important to the debate in discussing healthy ageing. There is a great deal to be welcomed in the opportunities that a healthy older population can provide; we should remember that when we are thinking about and developing policies in the area.
I repeat the point that Labour’s amendment reflects the period 2001 to 2011, but does not reflect the projections that were released on 6 November, which show that in the 25 years from 2012 to 2037 the number of people of state-pension age and above will increase by 27 per cent in Scotland but by a bigger percentage—31 per cent—in the rest of the UK. That provides challenges for Scotland and the rest of the UK. How we deal with those challenges and what we can do to tackle them will make a difference.
Overall, the dependency ratio in Scotland will be relatively better than that in the rest of the UK until the early 2030s. We know now, of course, that expenditure on social protection in 2011-12 was 14.4 per cent of gross domestic product in Scotland, and that it was 15.9 per cent in the UK. Scotland is therefore in a strong position in sustaining support for social protection.
We have talked about ageing, the challenges that all western demographies face, and how we might deal with them, but the younger population has also been a key part of the debate. It is significant that under-fives have increased by 6 per cent. Again, that natural increase is a strong steer for the economy and the population. It is interesting that, in my area—West Lothian—19 per cent of the population are under 15. That is a strong position, but it also provides challenges in terms of services. The average under-15 population is 16 per cent.
The points that the cabinet secretary has made latterly have thrown up the challenges that come from the census. I do not want to be in any way provocative; I simply want to ask the cabinet secretary a question. What action is the Scottish Government taking to review the findings of the census and react to them? More than a white paper will be needed to deal with those matters.
“Scotland’s Future: Your Guide to an Independent Scotland”, is a very good guide to some of the challenges and some of the opportunities and decisions that we can take. This debate has been an opportunity for members to reflect on the content of the census and to identify some of the challenges. We talked earlier about the challenges of schooling in Edinburgh in particular, with the growing younger population in the city. Those challenges are absolute. The challenges are not just in transport; they relate to health, younger people, universities and a wide range of other things. We need the valuable statistics from the census.
Marco Biagi provided a good description of the census. He described it as the “gold standard” and the statistical equivalent of the world cup. [Interruption.]
One moment, cabinet secretary.
Will members who are coming into the chamber please do so quietly and allow those of us who have been sitting here for most of the debate to hear Ms Hyslop winding up?
The census is robust and credible and can provide us with a guide for health and transport, the challenges for education, and the challenges of an ageing population, which we have also reflected on, for this country and the rest of Europe.
On how we can tackle those challenges, we have opportunities—the biggest of which is in growing our working-age population to ensure that we have the people who can provide the engine for economic growth in Scotland.
A great number of people worked long and hard on the census, so it is important that we record our thanks to them for their work in providing it.
The statistician John Rickman, who was a 19th century champion of the census, stated:
“the intimate knowledge of any country must form the rational basis of legislation and diplomacy”.
Our Parliament can make informed decisions only if we properly understand who we are, how we work and how we live in Scotland today. The census results provide us with that understanding.
I thank all those who delivered the census for us. The best that we can do with it is to use it to make informed and wise decisions and, as Patricia Ferguson said, to reflect on what it tells us and build our evidence-based policies around that.