European and External Relations Committee, 02 Jun 2009

Meeting date: Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Official Report 102KB pdf

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“Brussels Bulletin”

Item 3 is the regular edition of the "Brussels Bulletin". As Ian Duncan is still here, that provides a helpful opportunity for members to raise points about the publication.

While colleagues are considering their points, I will ask about the Lisbon growth and jobs strategy. The paper says that

"It is expected that the consultation will be launched in early autumn".

That sounds as if it would have relevance and implications for us.

Absolutely. It is clear that the Lisbon agenda has been blown slightly off course by events—the financial crises of varying sorts have done that. The new Commission—it is likely to be under Barroso's stewardship, but I say that pre-emptively, as it is not certain—will want to put the agenda back on track. In doing that, it will try to draw in as much opinion as it can. If the committee were so minded, and given the good work that it has done in the past, it would have the perfect opportunity to feed the Scottish viewpoint into the consultation.

Given the consultation's timeframe, it would be timely to reflect on it when considering our work programme later.

Will you give us a wee bit more information about Iceland? Iceland's application for membership is to be fast tracked and the bulletin says that its application could be

"submitted as early as July 2009."

Is Iceland still operating to that timeframe? What is the likely timescale for considering the application?

The reality is that the timescale will be quick. Iceland is keen to move in the direction of membership. Broadly speaking, it already complies with many of the legal requirements that would impede other would-be applicants. Once the discussions begin, they might move faster than those that would have taken place with Croatia, for example, and those that continue with Turkey and others.

Once Iceland applies for membership, a process of assessing the country begins, to ensure that it meets the requirements of the acquis communautaire. I suspect that it will meet many requirements. Thorny issues will arise—we touched on the fact that Iceland might not readily give up its fishing systems—but the process could move more quickly than might be expected.

An additional measure is the pressure safety valve of a referendum once the application process is completed. Iceland's population will be asked whether they wish to join the EU. Opinion polls suggest that they do, but that depends on the question that is asked.

You mentioned Croatia. Negotiations on Croatia's application have stalled as a result of disquiet in Slovenia. Will you expand on the problems with Croatia's application and on the disquiet?

Slovenia and Croatia share a border, at one part of which a dispute exists—I believe that it lies offshore—about the ownership of waters. Not many people saw that problem coming, but the Slovenians did. Given that they are already inside the tent, they are far more able to affect progress. Some might argue that the Slovenians are being a little heavy handed in using that to try to get their way.

Things cannot progress unless there is unanimity within the family of member states. The issue will have to be resolved—a compromise will have to be reached. If Slovenia has its way, it will get all that it wants; that is what it would like. Others are trying to broker a more balanced approach but, ultimately, Slovenia is a member and Croatia is not, although it would like to be, so it is not in as strong a position. That is slowing the process down.

If those talks get going again, what is the likely timeframe for Croatia becoming a member?

It could happen next year. It was anticipated that the treaty changes that would be required could be brought about by bolting on to Croatia's membership the guarantees that were offered to Ireland, and that is still the option that most people talk about. Some people have mentioned that the same could be done with Iceland's application, but I suspect that Iceland would still be that bit further away from being ready to join. Croatia is ready to roll; it just requires Slovenia to move a little bit out of its comfort zone for things to move more smoothly.

In the discussions that we held in Sweden on Friday, we found that the incoming presidency is naturally optimistic about the result of the Irish referendum. That is the outcome that the Swedes must work towards, given that the referendum will take place during their presidency. I do not know whether you are in a position to speculate about what might happen if the Irish say no. Where would we go after that?

I can speculate—whether what I say is in any way accurate is another matter. I suggest that if Ireland said no, the Lisbon treaty would probably be dead. I do not believe that life could be breathed back into it with any ease. That said, certain things would still have to happen. Some of the legacy issues from previous treaties would still have to be addressed, which would need to be done through different means. There are parts of the Lisbon treaty that are, broadly speaking, popular or necessary from the point of view of the reform of governance in the EU, and it might be possible to find other ways of doing those things.

I think that everyone is secretly hoping that the Irish just say yes. That seems to be the Commission's prayer at the moment; it has no other plan. The difficulty is that the Commission is damned if it does and damned if it does not, so it is trying to keep out of the process. It is hoping that the current financial climate is enough to remind Ireland of where its friends lie and what it might be sacrificing, were it to be the impediment to the progress of the Lisbon treaty. If Ireland votes no, the Commission will be in an extremely uncomfortable position for quite some time, because to lose one treaty is unfortunate, but to lose two—

—looks like carelessness.

Indeed. One might argue that.

When is the referendum to be held? Are we talking about September?

It will be in September or October. I suspect that it will probably be in October. The date has yet to be confirmed.

Thank you very much. That was very helpful. Are colleagues content to note the contents of the "Brussels Bulletin" and to forward it to the relevant committees?

Members indicated agreement.

That brings the public part of our meeting to a close. We have two further items, which the committee has agreed to take in private.

Meeting continued in private until 11:38.