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Chamber and committees

Finance Committee, 30 Mar 2004

Meeting date: Tuesday, March 30, 2004


Contents


Spending Review 2004

The Convener:

Item 3 is consideration of our budget adviser's paper on the Scottish Executive's budget strategy. I think that the paper is the third in a series of papers that the adviser has produced to help us with the budgetary scrutiny process. I invite Arthur Midwinter to comment on the paper, when he is ready.

Professor Arthur Midwinter (Adviser):

I produced the paper first, because some members of the committee are new to the Parliament and others are new to the Finance Committee and I thought that, as we are about to start the spending review process, it would be useful to provide members with a short review of how priorities have changed since the Parliament was established. Secondly, I will from tomorrow be officially reviewing the new annual evaluation report on the committee's behalf as the start of the process, so I thought that it would be useful to have a steer on the committee's view on some of the priorities and the extent to which we should adopt a reactive or a proactive approach.

The paper says that spending priorities are at the heart of political choice in the budget process. The important point about tomorrow's publication of the new AER is that that will represent the first stage in the implementation of the changes to the budget process that were agreed with the Executive. The AER will contain first, a new statement of priorities and secondly, a comprehensive review of performance against the targets in the document, "Building a Better Scotland: Spending Proposals 2003-2006: What the money buys", as well as updated information on the priorities that were added as a result of the partnership agreement. Thirdly, the AER will contain the spending plans for the 2005-06 budget, which we will scrutinise this year, and some updated information about additional funding in the spending plans since last year's draft budget.

The previous session's Finance Committee took the view that the Executive ought to state what was described as "a systematic priority framework". That committee made its recommendations before the publication in SR2002 of the BABS document, to which we are still working. SR2002 led to the first such statement, by which I mean the statement of the five functional priorities and the two cross-cutting priorities.

The final stage of the process under the former Finance Committee was that it took the view that it welcomed the introduction of the framework but said that the Executive still had too many poorly defined priorities. The committee said that it was difficult to know what something's being a priority meant in terms of resources.

I will summarise the changes. "Investing in You: the Annual Report of the Scottish Executive", which was published in 2000, was the first formal statement of priorities. The quote that I included in my paper from the late Donald Dewar suggests that health and education were the two top priorities at that time. Donald Dewar also said:

"The theme behind the budget is social justice."

The following year's spending plans, which were produced by Jack McConnell—who was at that time the Minister for Finance—had hospitals, schools, crime and enterprise culture as its four priorities. The spending plans document in 2002 had infrastructure, investment and tackling the problems of deprived areas as its priorities.

The previous session's Finance Committee was keen to get some stability into the process and to be clear what the Executive's priorities were. It could be said, however, that having three First Ministers over the period probably contributed to the issues that the committee raised.

As I said, the current BABS document has a five-plus-two focus—five fundamental priorities and two cross-cutting themes. I find that structure problematic in terms of effective targeting of resources and monitoring of results.

There have also been occasions in the lifetime of the Parliament on which, because of the immediacy of a problem, something has emerged as a "top priority". The examples that I give in the paper are children and growing the economy. It still puzzles me how we are supposed to know whether something is a priority and how we will know whether it is being treated as such. I am also puzzled about how we can monitor and audit the cross-cutting priorities.

The Midwinter view is that strategic priorities should be thematic and that they should be used as the wider criteria for evaluating spending proposals. That means that it is not possible for the Executive just to say that it will increase the number of teaching staff in schools—which I think is on the agenda at the moment; rather, it must also say that that will contribute to closing the opportunity gap and to an improvement in the general level of attainment in schools. Wider questions need to be asked about the spending proposals.

When I drafted the paper, I was not aware that the committee would debate it the day before the new AER came out. It would still be helpful for me to have some preliminary guidance on the committee's view of the Executive's current priorities and about whether we ought to be thinking about and suggesting to the Executive any other strategic priorities that it has not used to date. It would also be helpful to have the committee's view of its role in the redistribution and realignment of budget allocations in the budget process. The consultation on the document that comes out tomorrow will provide an opportunity for the subject committees and the Finance Committee to make recommendations for spending priorities. It would be helpful to have the committee's view on that. Basically, the document continues to support the argument that a yet more rigorous and consistent approach be taken.

In a footnote to my paper, I refer to the discussion that took place at the meeting of 2 March about the committee's links with the subject committees. In the past, the Finance Committee used its members as reporters to other subject committees. The reporters provided a link between the Finance Committee and the subject committees. If there are issues of concern to the committee—as was stated at the last meeting—members might want to think about doing that again in this session.

The Convener:

Thank you for that outline, which highlighted the issues that we have to take on board as we go through the spending review process and the next annual budget round. Do members want to comment or offer guidance on the way in which we might want to take forward some of the issues that are under debate?

Jeremy Purvis:

I have some guidance as to how we should proceed. In the work that we have been doing up until now, we have been trying to get greater transparency in the budget figures and in the breakdown of capital spend. I have asked a number of parliamentary questions on the proportion of proposed budget headings that will go on staff costs. Now we will have information on performance indicators and performance over the previous year, which I know we have had in previous years.

Arthur Midwinter's report says that he is working up guidance for other committees, which will be useful. Given the information that you will be seeing, will it be possible in our data to have a much clearer layout of the budget forecast to show under which existing priority items come; the proportion of capital and whether there is capital slippage; the proportion of staff costs and forecasts—which raises the question of how much flexibility there will be for a committee to exert influence; and whether performance indicators have been published to show the performance of the previous year in respect of outputs? That might be a vain hope. I do not know how that information could be worked up or whether it would be useful.

Professor Midwinter:

Do you mean in cash terms?

Yes.

Professor Midwinter:

Quite a few issues arise there. The questions that you asked assume that the process is integrated and that Andy Kerr's rhetoric about there being a link between the grand objectives, the allocation of resources and results happens in the real world. We have seen no sign that it is. We are still working up a paper on capital expenditure, which Wendy Alexander asked for. My understanding is that this week the Executive will deliver to me data on capital expenditure, which will allow us to complete that paper. There will be a table on capital expenditure, as there always is, but it will be in another document.

I presume that it will not include the trend data for the past 10 years, which is what we asked for.

Professor Midwinter:

No. The paper that we produce will try to outline the trends using the data that the Executive gives us. The trends will not be set out in the document that is produced tomorrow.

Jeremy Purvis asked about staff costs. He has probably worked, as I have, in an organisation that has a real budget with all such costs set out. The Scottish budget is really funding programmes for other agencies, so we tend not to get staff costs broken down in a way that might be helpful. The targets are more likely to be those that were approved as the equivalent of the results, such as reducing death from heart disease and reducing the crime rate, rather than financial reporting of outturn, which tends to be done at a different time of the year. I do not know whether that helps you, but most of the information that you are looking for will probably not be in the document tomorrow.

Jeremy Purvis:

I am not a member of another committee, but I would have thought that it would be useful for other committees to get a broader picture of the relevant department, which would tell them not only the budget forecast but the elements that are already committed, performance in those areas and the performance and outputs of the department. We should be pressing for that kind of information. We can confer later about the response that I got to my parliamentary question, which did break down staff costs for each department. That sort of information might be useful, even as an indicator, as it would let the other committees see what makes up a particular section of the budget. I was just hoping that the information could be more co-ordinated.

Professor Midwinter:

When we were trying at official level to work out how the revised format might appear, we discussed financial and performance reporting. Remember that the documents were set in 2002 for the budget of 2003-04, which has just ended. The view was that it would be two years hence before we could get any robust financial output data. For that reason, the Executive officials felt that it was premature to include any kind of output data in the document, but they will announce it in June or July when they calculate end-year flexibility.

There is a similar problem with some of the performance targets that were set using a similar baseline. Some of them will record progress but most of them are targets for the four-year period: they are performance targets up to 2005-06. You will get some kind of commentary on how well the Executive is meeting the targets that were set for 2005-06.

Ms Alexander:

Will it be possible for Arthur Midwinter or the clerks to provide us with a note that states the recommendations that we made in the second stage budget report in the first week of December—the recommendations to the Executive on what it was to produce—and which also states the Executive's response? I think that we had a discussion in the middle of February during which I asked for clarity on what we are spending in terms of long-term trends and capital. I also asked how our figures compare with United Kingdom figures. I do not know whether the Executive was written to—that information will obviously be in the Official Report, but what I said was a third attempt to pursue the same matter. Other committee members must be as perplexed as I am.

I would like a note of the recommendations that we made to the Executive in December and a note of what it committed to in response. Obviously, after eight weeks, the Executive has to respond. Also, could there be a check of the Official Report to ascertain what we committed to in February? I think that we had a long discussion about what we were spending and what we were achieving for the money. I was suggesting that our discussion on inputs, outputs and outcomes might wait until next year. However, our absolute objective for year 1 of the committee should be clarity on long-term-trend spend and capital spend. We have to know whether the data that are available on those issues match those which are available in the rest of the UK, because that would be a reasonable benchmark. Now—

We did have a paper on the recommendations that we made and the responses from the Executive. We can reissue it if you like.

Ms Alexander:

A wide variety of issues arose from that. What we did not get was what we asked for in December. Arthur Midwinter is telling us that the Executive will publish the AER tomorrow, but I do not want to be coming up with alternative priorities for the Executive. I want the committee to have one focus. Why do we have to go to Peter Wood to provide six-year trend data for what the Executive spends? Those data should properly be the basis for any consideration of alternative priorities.

The minister has indicated that the Executive will produce trend data. I am not sure what point it has reached.

Professor Midwinter:

The Executive will produce two papers separately. They are not part of the budget. One is the time-series data on spending which, as far as I am aware, the Executive is still working on. That paper will be with us soon.

Ms Alexander:

We started discussing the issue in September last year and we wrote to the Executive in December. We need clarity on what is being delivered and when. We returned to the issue in February. I am aware that subject committees are now embarking on their considerations of the spending review; however, we are asking them to do that in the absence of those data.

Professor Midwinter:

Production of those data is imminent. It is a fortnight since I spoke to the Executive and the paper was still being worked on. When we had our first discussion, the Executive was concerned because there were three different phases of RAB. That turned out not to be problematic, because it is easy to de-RAB things. What did prove problematic was the frequency with which components of budgets are transferred to other budgets. That involved a lot of recalculation, which was time consuming.

The second paper that the Executive will produce for us will be on the spending review context. We had originally wanted that to be a chapter in the budget document, but the paper will be part of the presentation by Richard Dennis and Richard Wilkins.

Ms Alexander:

It is important for the committee to try to keep a record of what we asked for in December and where we are now. It may be that we will have all the information that we need by June: if so, that will be great. However, if the committee is not to mirror the chaos of constantly changing priorities, we need to be consistent in what we request.

I suggest that the Scottish Parliament information centre look into that with Arthur Midwinter.

Professor Midwinter:

We can supply the factual part of Wendy's request. We will chase up Executive staff to see what the timetable is. I have been told that I will get the capital figures this week. We can provide for the committee a note that says where we are.

Ms Alexander:

I think that the timetable has probably also slipped in relation to providing comparisons between what is available in the United Kingdom and what is available in Scotland. We must check that we have the same kind of trend data and capital spend data that are available for the UK.

I am keen for the committee to play a scrutiny role. The paper says that

"the Committee would want to consider budgetary redistribution and realignment to fund priorities",

but I do not think that that is our primary task. Our primary task is to bring transparency to what the Executive is doing and to scrutinise it. There would perhaps have been merit in the convener reiterating some of what is in the paper. I think that the debate could be advanced by our pointing out that priorities have changed five times and that there are in the most recent budget document five priorities plus two cross-cutting priorities, neither of which are growth or children, although those are—allegedly—also priorities. That is the proper role of the committee. The reason why we cannot make amendments to the budget bill without amending the whole budget is because our job is to scrutinise the Executive in respect of finance. It is not our job to say that we wish that we were in there so that we could do things differently. On the scrutiny function, Professor Midwinter's paper is enormously useful. However, it is a shame that the AER document is being published tomorrow, because Des McNulty will not have time to comment on behalf of the committee.

The Finance Committee's important role relates to scrutiny. We are in the unique position of being able to make clear the frequency with which policies have changed and the fact that there are now five official and two unofficial priorities. I hope that tomorrow's document does not reflect that. Has it been publicly announced that it will be published tomorrow?

Professor Midwinter:

Andy Kerr will make a statement tomorrow. When the media contacted me yesterday and asked me to comment on the document, I assumed that it would be the annual evaluation report because that is the date that we were given for that.

That makes it impossible for the committee convener to state that we would like progress to be made on the issue of there being five official and two unofficial priorities.

Standing orders say that the document must be published by a certain date.

In that case, we are on the eve of publication. There is a case to be made for our raising the fact that there are five official and two unofficial priorities and that we hope that something is said about that tomorrow.

That is right. However, the problem is that we will be driven by what is in the new document as soon as it comes out.

Dr Murray:

I want to echo some of the things that Wendy Alexander said. Our job is not about determining other spending priorities; it is about seeing how well the Executive is doing the job that it claims to be doing. Equally, although I know that there might be directions about what the subject committees are supposed to do in relation to the budget, I do not think that the role of the subject committees is to state what the spending priorities should be in the portfolio that is relevant to them. Most committees will not be at a stage at which that can be done. The Education Committee, on which Wendy Alexander and I serve, has spent a great deal of time on the Education (Additional Support for Learning) (Scotland) Bill and a small amount of time on its child protection inquiry. It is not in a position to overview the education budget and to decide where the priorities should be. I imagine that, at the moment, the views of the members of the committee would be coloured by their experience of the Education (Additional Support for Learning) (Scotland) Bill.

I think that we should do what is mentioned in paragraphs 6 and 8 of the report. The Executive has determined its particular priorities, although they change. We should ask it how it determines its targets and how those targets link to what it says its priorities are. We should ask what it is achieving, how the money is following the targets and how the level of priority has been determined. We need answers to those questions.

I am interested in Peter Wood's paper, but I am frustrated by some of the analyses because, although they tell me how much is spent, they do not tell me how decisions are made. I cannot tell whether they are made strategically and analytically or whether someone has simply thought that, for example, having an increased number of teachers is bound to be a good thing. I would like more in-depth information on how such decisions are made, but that might be unachievable.

Professor Midwinter:

On the first point, we are talking about something quite fundamental. Both Wendy Alexander and Dr Murray have spoken against the agreement that was reached between Parliament and the Executive on what the role of committees would be. Under the financial issues advisory group, the view was that there needed to be a more consultative system in which the committees were consulted about priorities.

I am quite happy to be the facilitator of anything that members want the system to be, but we really need guidance on that. In every other budget year, we have rehearsed the argument from the agreement and said that it is the role of the committees to give advice on priorities within their portfolios. If members do not want to do that, Parliament needs to have a debate about it.

On targets, my view is that the targets are not particularly helpful as they stand. The problem with some of them is that they are outcome measures. The big publicity over the past couple of weeks has been on the impact of lifestyle on health. We have discovered that, for years, health has been getting better, but is it because of money that is going into the NHS or is it because of lifestyles? The same is true of crime.

At the other extreme, a number of targets are listed that are just about the process of the finance and public services remit; there are seven or eight targets that say that the Executive will set up a best-value regime or a prudential regime for local authorities, which spend £8 billion, but there is nothing about services.

Dr Murray:

I want to return briefly to the point that Wendy Alexander and I were making. I appreciate the fact—and I tried to allude to it—that the question is being asked because that is what the committees were expected to do back in 1999. However, over the past five years, how often have committees suggested alternative priorities and how often has the Executive taken any heed of what the committees have suggested? Is it an empty exercise?

Professor Midwinter:

It has happened only in recent years, since the committees were driven towards it. We geared the information around getting the committees to make recommendations. In the first year in which we tried that, we got 16 recommendations, of which 12 were accepted. However, before that, there was only one spending recommendation in three years.

Some of the recommendations were not about how the money was spent; they were about how the expenditure could be reported to make the process more transparent.

Professor Midwinter:

There have been different kinds of recommendations, and many of them have been about the budget process. However, in the last year of the previous Finance Committee, we produced a list of spending recommendations that were culled from the subject committees, as well as recommendations on how the Executive should report the expenditure and what information the committees need. Before that, one or two spending recommendations were made in three years. The last year of the previous session was the first year in which we got a series of spending recommendations.

The Convener:

In a sense, both arguments are correct. If we do not have the transparency to aid scrutiny, it is hard for us to make recommendations. We have to focus quite a lot of attention on getting transparency into the scrutiny process. At the same time, if a consensual view is emerging in committees about how the resources should be allocated in their areas, we should encourage them to express that view. Ultimately, that would help us to deal with some of the issues that Peter Wood has raised.

In the document, there is a scant reference to my generation in paragraph 5.

Professor Midwinter:

Scant?

John Swinburne:

You say that the Executive aims to promote social justice

"through community care and the warm deal for the elderly".

Wendy Alexander talked about four-year plans. Four years ago, the Executive promised to spend £340 million but, to date, it has spent only £109 million without a murmur about it from anyone. Where is the shortfall? Its target was for 144,000 houses to be sorted out with central heating, yet it has come up with a figure of 39,500—about 100,000 short. The committee should be ensuring that, when the Executive makes financial promises in Parliament, it backs them up with deeds. We are falling far short in that area.

Professor Midwinter:

The target will be in the new budget document and there will be a report on progress. You will have the ideal opportunity to comment at that stage.

Fergus Ewing:

Professor Midwinter's paper shows clearly that the Executive is not addressing its stated priorities—although its priorities constantly change and fluctuate, rather like the line between the seashore and the sea. Children were the top priority, but they have been demoted and the top priority is now economic growth. It is, "Goodbye, kids—hello, growth."

And, "Hello, big bucks."

Fergus Ewing:

I am interested in the comments that Wendy Alexander and Elaine Murray made about the role of the committees. It is difficult for a committee to come up with specific costed proposals; however, it is plainly less difficult for it to come up with and justify a proposal that funding for a particular budget area should be increased or reduced. It is also possible for a committee simply to argue that specific policy initiatives should be included or, indeed, excluded from the budget. All those things legitimately fall within the committees' purview and responsibility.

Elaine Murray's argument that it is difficult for a committee to do that does not detract from the fact that the Parliament has recognised that it is perfectly legitimate for committees to play such a role. During my time on the Enterprise and Lifelong Learning Committee and, in particular, during my two-year membership of the Rural Development Committee, I found it extremely difficult to understand how, for example, various components of rural development spend in Scotland interacted, not least because the matter was complicated by the fact that much of the money emanated from Europe and was siphoned through Whitehall on its journey to farmers' bank accounts.

Committees might feel a bit daunted by the scale of such a task. However, I hope that this year subject committees can receive simple concrete advice—I am not sure from whom, but I hope that this committee's adviser will have a key input into the process—to make it clear that they can come up with specific alternative proposals and that any advice that they might want about costing those proposals can be made available. I should point out that the timescale is short if the reports are to be submitted by the middle of May.

It is imperative that the lead committees are presented with the option of coming up with their own proposals whatever they might be and in whatever detail they can muster in the short time available. As Elaine Murray pointed out, that will be a difficult task, but I find it hard to see how this process will achieve anything, or will become more than an annual academic exercise that is carried out by rote, if the committees do not come up with more ideas.

As far as priorities are concerned, the Executive should simply stop talking about having any. After all, it plainly cannot bring itself to say that something is not a priority. It is a bit like the old saying that when a politician says "Yes," he means "Maybe"; when he says "Maybe," he means "No"; and he will never say "No," because that means that he is not a politician.

Professor Midwinter:

Currently there is an agreement that if subject committees want a proposal to be costed precisely, Executive finance officials will carry out that costing. One or two proposals have been costed in the past; for example, figures were produced for some of the health initiatives and a cost was added.

However, instead of providing detailed costed options, committees have mainly decided to go down the other two routes that Fergus Ewing highlighted, by saying that any extra money should be given to programme or area X. At the moment, I am going round the subject committees and we will soon draft some guidance. Given all the changes to committee memberships, committees probably need to be made aware that the facility exists to cost proposals.

When would we expect the lead committees to complete their work on this matter? Are we talking about mid-May?

Professor Midwinter:

Yes, although some have started work on their reports. For the past month, I have been issuing briefing papers to committees and having sessions with conveners.

So if a committee wants to take evidence on any issue that it wants to pursue, it will have to get its skates on immediately after we come back from recess on 19 April.

Professor Midwinter:

Some committees and I have had preliminary discussions. They might well have decided who they want to give evidence and will be sending out letters now.

I see that Jeremy Purvis and Jim Mather want to speak. I am anxious to get on, because I want to draw some conclusions from the discussion.

Jeremy Purvis:

I will be brief, but it is worth stressing that the role of the Finance Committee in interacting with other committees is a two-way process. They help us to fulfil our scrutiny role. I do not agree that we should be reactive and only scrutinise what the Executive has done or is doing. The committees could have information in table form or another form that shows the budget priority area, the budget figures, the percentage that is capital, the EYF, slippage in the previous year, the percentage of staff, the percentage increase on the previous year, and the stated progress on targets. That would help them to fulfil their role and would give us a role in enabling them to understand the situation with the budgets.

If our role is to do with scrutiny, we are fundamentally limited. At the moment, we scrutinise budget documents and legislation that comes before us. We have spent an inordinate amount of time today on a bill that will cost the taxpayer £100,000, whereas things are going ahead in departments that will have a massive effect on the public budget, such as the review of infection control and health, the changes to drugs budgets and the consultation on pharmacy contracts, to name a few. Unless we can work with subject committees more closely and allow them to come back to us with issues, our scrutiny role will be seriously limited.

Jim Mather:

I find the priorities to be woolly. They are in the land of declaration of intent and, as has accurately been pointed out, sometimes are not worth a lot. In the corporate world, there is a tendency to try to manage towards certain outcomes—turnover, market share, margin, cash position, balance-sheet strength, the dividend, the share price and so on. Even in the national UK Government, there is management towards certain concrete targets, whether it is achieving surplus or deficit to plan, making the borrowing target, achieving growth, getting a certain exchange rate, holding a certain interest rate or whatever. Why are we sitting here with woolly priorities and not a small subset of concrete outcomes?

That is not a question for Arthur Midwinter; it is a question for the Executive.

Professor Midwinter:

There was no requirement on the devolved Administrations to sign up to the public service agreements—which may be what are being referred to—between the Treasury and Whitehall departments. We have targets that are a Scottish version of those agreements, but they are not as systematically developed as Gordon Brown's regime in Whitehall. However, you will get conflicting views on how effective they are. As I understand it, the conventional wisdom in Whitehall is that there are too many targets and they should be reduced.

Jim Mather:

The point is that as we move forward and get time-series data on, for example, growth figures over the period, population movement figures over the period, and economically inactive figures over the period, it will not require high-grade journalists to start to draw conclusions.

The Convener:

I will draw us towards where we need to go. First, we should pick up Wendy Alexander's point and quickly pursue the Executive for the information that we asked for before, and ensure that it is filtered into our scrutiny and, ideally, to that of the subject committees.

Secondly, as a committee, we are not yet in a position to stipulate our view on priorities. We could do with a discussion, after the AER has been published, on the new version of the Executive's priorities—if the priorities are revised—and how they will fit in.

One of our objectives should be to streamline the scrutiny process. No doubt some of the issues that we raised previously and the additional information that we have asked for will help us to do that, but when the AER comes before us, we will see the extent to which transparency has improved as a result of our recommendations. We should reflect on that in the evidence that we take and the conclusions that we draw.

On the guidance that we give to committees, we must help them to scrutinise the information that lies before them and provide the clearest possible information. Notwithstanding Elaine Murray's point, we must tell committees that if they want the budget in their area to be shifted around, they can suggest that. The extent to which they are in a position to do that may not be as far ahead as we would like, but we are making progress in that regard, and I hope that we will be able to make further progress.

There is one practical issue: Arthur Midwinter will have to write guidance to assist the subject committees. It is now just before the recess, but I do not want us to lose two weeks, so does the committee agree to my signing off his draft of the guidance?

Can it be circulated by e-mail?

If people respond to it.

I promise to respond.

The point is that that can take time. We will circulate it quickly, but I am not sure that it will be ready before Friday.

Professor Midwinter:

It might be. It depends whether there are any major changes to the AER from the version that I have seen. I will be going over it on Thursday morning. If there are no major changes, I could probably have a first stab by Friday.

My intention would be to sign it off on Friday, if that is possible. There might be a relatively short period for members to look at it.