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I extend a warm welcome to Councillor Charles Gordon, the leader of Glasgow City Council, and to David Comley, the director of housing in Glasgow City Council.
I have been told to restrict my comments to a minute.
Have 10 minutes if that is what you need.
I will need two minutes at the most. I am anxious that we get into the depths of this issue. Your suggestion that the questions should draw out the information is sensible. However, I hope that Mr Comley will deal in great depth with the process that he has been involved in.
Thank you very much, Councillor Gordon. That was some minute.
Because it is the only deal that is on the table to remove the debt burden. It is felt—although I have difficulty in attributing motives to other people—that if we were simply to have the debt removed, which, as I pointed out, would only bring the waiting period down to 17 months, increased borrowing consent would also be required.
Is it not 17 years?
Yes, 17 years. I beg your pardon.
We will pursue the question of tenant participation, but why would transferring the housing stock solve the problems that you face and address housing need in Glasgow? Why do you plan a whole transfer?
As I understand it, if we were to create a special purpose vehicle—in effect, a gigantic housing association—its borrowings would not score in the same way against the public sector borrowing requirement as the borrowings of the council would under traditional borrowing consent. If we were transferring the housing stock without transferring the debt, the special purpose vehicle would be able to borrow against the rental income stream. It would also have title to the houses, which would be additional security for borrowing. The new organisation would be able to invest over a far shorter period for modernisation.
It is worth noting that the council has relatively recently come to the conclusion that whole stock transfer offers a solution to its difficulties. As the written evidence that we have supplied suggests, we have considered a range of other options since the Grieve report that Councillor Gordon mentioned. We have investigated all sorts of ways of increasing the level of investment in the city's stock that do not involve whole stock transfer, including the covenant scheme and partial stock transfer to housing associations funded through Scottish Homes and so on. We have also considered other options, such as the use of the private finance initiative and capital from current revenue. There is a back-up note in the pack explaining some of the work that we have done.
It has been put to us that there should be a moratorium on what you are doing and that it should stop. What would be the consequences for Glasgow tenants if your proposals were stopped?
The outlook would be quite bleak, because we would be left with a 30-year backlog of investment. At the moment, with our traditional housing capital programme, we are spreading the jam very thinly. For example, on an estate that requires window replacement we may do only one or two streets a year, when it would make sense to do the whole estate in a much shorter time. In the meantime, new needs arise, but because of the debt it is impossible for us to move forward. As well as having the debt written off, we need more resources for additional investment. People are getting very impatient.
Are you saying that dealing with the debt is the fundamental issue in Glasgow?
That issue has been around for a long time. It was highlighted in the Grieve report.
Dealing with the debt is a fundamental prerequisite. In the discussion so far, we have rightly concentrated on investment, but service delivery is also an issue. We are not able to offer tenants in the city the kind of housing management and repair service that they rightly ask for. That is because roughly half of our revenue is going on debt servicing. If we are not able to address the issues of service delivery and investment, and if we do nothing, the future is an accelerated and precipitous decline in council housing, far more demolitions, continued marginalisation of council estates and the social exclusion of the people who live there. The council cannot countenance that.
Councillor Gordon, you gave a stimulating statement in your introduction when you talked about social inclusion and urban regeneration. Assuming that goes ahead, what is your vision for the city? In five years' time, where will the city be in terms of the quality of the stock and in terms of the tenants being involved in investment decisions?
I hope that we will not come up with second-class solutions by spreading the jam too thinly to keep unit costs down. I want world-class solutions for Glasgow. I want to see happy and well-motivated tenants who are heavily involved in influencing the detail not only of the investment but of the day-to-day management and maintenance of their stock.
Can you give us a summary of the main problems with the housing stock?
In the copies of the housing plan that we provided for members, our estimated investment requirement is roughly £1.2 billion or £1.3 billion for the stock with a long-term life. That estimate has been confirmed by the work on the condition of the stock that was done for us as part of the feasibility study. The average is £17,000 a unit.
My final question is about the steering group. Please give us an idea of its remit and responsibilities and bring us up to date with what is happening.
It might save time if I leave the formal remit of the steering group with the committee. The steering group involves me and my deputy leader, Jim Coleman, who has political responsibility in the council for social inclusion, as well as the Minister for Communities, Wendy Alexander, and the Deputy Minister for Local Government, Frank McAveety. There are also representatives of the housing association movement and Scottish Homes, but it is fair to say that it is the council and the Scottish Executive that are principally involved.
Having criticised the inadequate evidence that was submitted to this committee by the Department of Social Security, I congratulate Glasgow City Council on the comprehensive and detailed nature of its evidence, which will be very useful for members.
Perhaps you should ask the Scottish Executive.
He will.
The steering group is an unusual body. I am not aware of steering groups being involved in the stock transfer proposals of other local authorities. My initial reaction to the proposition that we have a special steering group was that it was recognition by the Scottish Executive that the sheer scale of Glasgow's problems merited special attention.
I was interested to hear you say that one argument against the council being able to borrow huge sums to invest was, "You got into this mess in the first place, so there is no guarantee that you will not get into the same mess again in the next 20 years." It struck me that you were being unfair to yourself. Everybody on this committee accepts that Glasgow faces a housing crisis.
I hope that I said that it was a perception that the crisis was our fault. I did not mean that I agreed with that. The factors that you mentioned have made a major contribution. Also, in real terms, the value of borrowing consents is lower than it has been. However, we are aware of the reason for that in every service. We know that that macroeconomic view comes from UK level and is part of the Government's anti-inflation policy.
Mr Comley said that you had considered various other options. I remember that the same thing happened in Dundee and Tayside, when we considered covenant schemes; we considered any means of getting investment into council property. However, by and large, the other options have been closed down by central Government. If you come, reluctantly, to the conclusion that whole stock transfer is the only answer to the housing crisis in Glasgow, that is not because you want it to be the only answer; rather, it is the only answer available because of central Government policy and attitudes.
You say "reluctantly", but I agree with the director of housing that the economics of council housing investment in Glasgow are such that the position is not sustainable. Therefore, pragmatically, my view is that, provided that certain safeguards are in place, moving to a different type of ownership of social rented housing might well be acceptable.
Convener, may I have two minutes, or do you want me to leave my questions until later?
We will move on to finance now. Do you want to start that?
I have a couple of questions about rents. I was interested in what you said about one of the great attractions of stock transfer for tenants being that it would introduce an element of rent stability, at least for the next five years, which has been impossible under the present financing arrangements for local government in Scotland.
I will let Mr Comley answer that point in detail, but I want to make it clear that the rent stability is a demand principally raised by the tenants—a demand towards which I am sympathetic. The scenario that you describe, and which Mr Comley will explain, is not one that I support. We must find a model that guarantees better rent stability before we can sell the idea to tenants. Ultimately, nothing will happen unless tenants vote for stock transfer in a secret ballot.
I should clarify the issue of the 6 per cent increases. The consultants who undertook the feasibility study for us needed to estimate the rental income at the point of transfer, which was taken as being two years after they started the study. They were not in a position to estimate that figure, so they asked council officers to give them an assumption that they would use to calculate rental income from the year of transfer onwards. That was done at a time when the council had not set its housing revenue account for the current financial year, let alone for the next financial year or the one after that, and before the recent substantial reductions in interest rates took place.
Nevertheless, it is still just an estimate that the increase for next year will come down from 6 per cent to 3 per cent. You have not got there yet.
Yes, we have. The firm figure for next year's increase is 3 per cent. The council has agreed that.
That is still above the rate of inflation. The average rent level in Glasgow is £44.10 a week.
It will be £45.23 from 1 April.
That is well above the level set by Scottish Homes' affordability criteria and the level at the lower end of the private sector market. The maintenance of high rent levels for tenants in Glasgow seems to be built into the proposal, partly because of the level from which we are starting, which I suppose is unavoidable.
If rents increase in line with the RPI for the 30-year period of the business plan—
There is no guarantee that they will.
That level of increase will be guaranteed for five years.
But beyond five years there is no guarantee.
There is no legally binding guarantee, but the assumption that is being built into the business plan is that we will aim to keep rent increases at that level. I would like there to be a legal guarantee for 10 years, but it remains to be seen whether that is possible. The minimum guarantee will be for five years. Increases in line with the RPI are built into the assumption of the income flow for the organisation.
When you initially advised your consultants that rents would increase by 6 per cent over the next two years, you also suggested that a £3 a week rent rise would be required at the end of five years. Where did that figure come from? How will that relate to RPI at the time? We cannot know that.
One of the fundamental requirements placed on us by the Scottish Office—before the Scottish Parliament existed—when the feasibility study new housing partnership money was approved was that we must maximise the valuation of the stock.
But is not it the case that if you maximise the valuation at the point of transfer, you increase the likelihood of a high rent policy, whereas if you minimise the valuation, you increase the likelihood of a lower rent policy?
Indeed.
So the Government is instructing Glasgow City Council to maximise the valuation to build into the project a high rent policy.
Certainly to make it more difficult to achieve a low one, yes.
And that is because it would suit the private investors.
It is more because it suited the Scottish Office, as it then was. A negative evaluation is a problem for the Government, because it means that it has to produce more public subsidy to make the project fly.
It is a question, then, of whether taxpayers pay or rent payers in Glasgow pay. It is the old division that we have had in Glasgow for the past 20 years. Some things never change.
The more I hear about this matter, the more it is like the "Fiddler with the Roofs" rather than the "Fiddler on the Roof". We all agree that the council is between a rock and a hard place in regard to where Government policy is at the moment. Our questions are aimed at trying to understand where the council is at in terms of what it is trying to achieve.
The question you ask is fundamental to the feasibility study work, because clearly, first we have to establish whether a whole stock transfer proposal is feasible in the Glasgow context—and it has to be in the Glasgow context, because the context is different for every local authority in Scotland. So the feasibility study was designed to establish whether such a transfer was feasible. On the assumptions that were made, it had to determine the impact of the transfer on rent levels. In other words, what rent levels would be required to fund it?
But there is absolutely no guarantee. If the assumptions are wrong and the situation changes, then investors will be able to jack up rents as much as they feel is necessary to pay back the investment.
Funders will want to see mechanisms in the business plan to deal with unforeseen eventualities. They are less likely to want to see rents jacked up than a plan to deal with unforeseen eventualities by other mechanisms, for the reasons I gave: high rents mean no tenants and damage to the financial status of the organisation and funders will not want that. Funders will, of course, want to assess whether a proper risk assessment has been made and whether there are mechanisms in place that allow appropriate action to be taken in the event that business plan assumptions prove wrong.
In Glasgow, as in many other local authorities, a high proportion of rental income comes from housing benefit. There are suggested changes to housing benefit, such as reducing the total funded from 100 per cent to 80 per cent. How can the feasibility study be completed and answers found on whether the wholesale stock transfer of Glasgow's housing to a third-party organisation is going to be viable when you do not know what reforms there will be to housing benefit?
One never knows what might happen in terms of future legislation. No kind of feasibility work would be done or any advance made if we said we cannot do anything because we do not know what might happen in five or six years. Seventy per cent of our income derives from housing benefit, so you are right, it is a big issue. However, billions of pounds of private investment in housing association stock south of the border rides on housing benefit—
But the whole reason for the stock transfer is to reduce the public sector borrowing requirement. If you transfer the subsidy to councils to subsidy to housing associations, at the end of the day it goes into the PSBR and we are back to square one.
Our view is that if we transfer the stock at RPI rent increases, the long-term housing benefit bill is almost certain to be less than if that stock remains with the council, because it is unlikely that the council will be able to maintain RPI rent increases over a long period of time. That level of increase has been possible in the past couple of years, but the long-term trend has not been rent increases at RPI. Our calculations suggest that council rents have gone up on average by 10 per cent a year in the past 10 years. The past two years have been different.
But if your debt had been written off and transferred to central government that would not have been the case?
No, but it has not been written off. Again, we start from where we are.
I am suggesting that you could achieve what a third-party organisation could achieve if your debt was written off.
We could achieve substantially more than we now achieve. It is worth noting that, as Councillor Gordon said, the council's original position ever since Grieve was that it wanted its debt to be written off, transferred from the rent payer or otherwise dealt with. Had that happened at the time of the Grieve report, we would certainly not be sitting here discussing whole stock transfer in Glasgow City Council.
Exactly.
We are considering stock transfer throughout the country, but Glasgow is the main example that we are considering now. Our job is to examine the finances of the process. From what we have heard, there is a potential for increased rents because it suits the Executive to go through that process.
It could not be done on the same time scale that could be achieved by transfer.
Would relaxation of borrowing consents with the same rental income stream allow you to achieve the same level of investment in the same time scale? I understand that Unison argues that, if borrowing consents were relaxed and debts transferred, the same level of investment could be achieved over the same period.
By the relaxation of borrowing consents do you mean that there would be no control over the council's borrowing and that it could borrow whatever it felt was appropriate?
I mean that it could borrow what it could sustain.
That is a fair comment. If the current debt were removed and the council were able to borrow a sum that rental incomes could sustain, yes, we could achieve investment on a faster time scale.
So your understanding is that the Government is prepared to assist with the council's debt only while it continues to be a landlord. Can you give us more details about the objections to being a landlord? Is it simply to do with the public sector borrowing requirement, or is it to do with the perception that, as a landlord, Glasgow City Council has made a mess of the city's housing?
I referred to that perception, but it is a difficult area and I am tempted to say that you should ask the minister about it.
We will ask her later on.
Wendy Alexander has considered the housing association movement and has perhaps come to the view that it has been more successful than councils have. That perception could be attributed to the fact that the housing association movement has had capital to invest. There is a view of housing management issues that perhaps contributes to the Government's position.
Where are we now on finance? From your submission, I understand the logic of where you had got to 10 months ago. You could achieve what you want to achieve by other means, but it suits the Government to pursue the current proposals. Is that correct?
We are local government. Central Government always has the whip hand over local government and that is the framework in which we operate. We want to modernise houses and help tenants, so we do not want to continue in a dogmatic debate; we want to make progress. The tenants have said that they would consider supporting stock transfer if it will allow investment in their houses. They do not see dogmatic or ideological debate as the primary concern, so the council is taking a pragmatic view because we cannot control factors such as borrowing consent.
If you could influence the situation, what would you want to achieve? This committee can take a view on the finances of rents and—
It is not in the gift of even the Scottish Parliament to sort out borrowing consent in the public sector.
We are very ambitious.
We want to understand your decision-making process and how much you pursue a line because you think that it is right or because you are constrained by the PSBR and the views of central Government about who is an effective landlord.
It is more important to do the right thing for the tenants, even if some people find the method ideologically distasteful, than to do nothing.
I want to echo other members' comments about the quality of the papers that you submitted to the committee. They were very useful.
There comes a point at which no one can give guarantees about the future. No one would give a legally enforceable 15, 20 or 30-year guarantee on rent levels. The discussion is likely to revolve around a guarantee of between five and 10 years. I would like to see a 10-year rent guarantee. That may not be possible, but the minimum should be five years. The new transfer vehicle should give a legally binding five-year guarantee on rent levels. It should clearly set out its assumptions about rent levels for the 30 years of the business plan.
That is a political matter. If there is the will to insist on a model that delivers rent stability for at least the first five years, we should simply tell the lawyers and the accountants the answer that we want to that dead hard sum. The tenants are telling me that they want rent stability because their rents are already excessively high. I accept the tenants' views. Whether or not the people who do the dead hard sums are comfortable with that, I am not prepared to subscribe to a model that involves unreasonable further rent increases for the tenants.
I know that people on Glasgow City Council can do dead hard sums. Can you give your tenants a guarantee, now, about the rent levels for the next 10 years?
No, we cannot. If we take the financial year that is about to start as an example, we have set a 3 per cent increase in rent levels. We have done that because tenants have said that we were not doing enough repairs. They know that half the rents go towards debt, but they do not want the level of repairs to decline in real terms. We have not set a zero rent increase—that was an option—because that would have led to a reduction in repairs. Through the application of best value, which we are applying systematically across the council, the housing and building departments have managed to make a modest increase in repairs expenditure—between £1 million and £1.5 million.
We are considering the possibility of having a rolling five-year rent guarantee; in other words, to review the situation after the first year after transfer and then to tell tenants that we can guarantee that, for the next five years, the organisation will be able to keep to RPI.
I want to keep to the subject of finances, but I want to ask about the scale. In many ways, Glasgow City Council or, in the early 1980s, the City of Glasgow District Council, pioneered stock transfer and community ownership. We need only look at the areas of Glasgow concerned to see the success which that brought. In your vision, Charlie, it was not just a matter of modernising the houses and guaranteeing investment in housing, but was about wider community issues, including housing in general, employment and opportunities. I appreciate your point about opportunities for training.
That scenario might not give best value. The administrative costs of housing associations in Glasgow are nearly double those of the municipal housing department. I know that some people subscribe to the view that small is beautiful. I subscribe to the view that, all other things being equal, big units are better than small ones. Perhaps members would expect an ex-Strathclyde regional councillor to say that. [Laughter.]
The model that emerged from the feasibility study as the one which the council wanted to use as a framework for discussions with tenants tried to build community ownership into the process from day one. The framework which the consultants recommended to the council included a city-wide organisation which owned the stock, but which was itself owned by the local, community-based organisations, which had full responsibility in that model for local housing management, the delivery of the local housing service and the specification and management of their investment programme.
I feel very strongly that we must have one big ballot for one big transfer. If we have more than one ballot, we create the possibility of different ballot outcomes and of tenants in some stock losing out. By the same token, if we do not have one big, strong, overarching organisation, we take away the possibility of a solution for every home and every tenant.
I appreciate that. The papers that you have submitted have improved my understanding of that point—this is about bringing in investment for people's homes. If the proposal goes ahead, how much investment will it bring into the city of Glasgow over the course of the six years? I hope that we will get to the stage where people have central heating and modern homes to live in.
Planned investment in the stock is £1.3 billion. There would also be continuing maintenance of the stock over the course of the 30-year business plan and beyond. We estimate, based on Scottish Executive figures for jobs created per £1 million of construction spending, that that would generate something like 4,000 new jobs in the city in the construction industry, the building supplies industry and so on.
We misuse language when we talk about writing off Glasgow's housing debt. We are really talking about treatment of the debt, rather than transfer. It is being suggested that although, technically, the debt would remain on the books of the city council, the individual loans that make up that debt, which stands at £940 million, would be identified and be the subject of individual contractual commitments between the Scottish Executive and the council, which would receive pound-for-pound revenue support in future years. That would remove the difficulties in transferring a huge sum of money to the Government's books in a oner, as it were.
In the written evidence is a letter from the then minister Calum MacDonald—this was before the establishment of the Scottish Parliament—to the then councillor Frank McAveety—
What happened to him?
He is behind you.
With a shotgun.
The letter sets out the arrangements as they were emerging between the Scottish Office and the council.
I want to go back to the rent issue. You played down the importance of the figure of 6 per cent by saying that it was just a planning assumption and that the real figure was only 3 per cent, but is it not the case that the figure of 6 per cent is crucial to your proposal? You say that valuations are very sensitive to changes in assumption and point out that a reduction to 4 per cent would knock £82 million off the valuation. Regardless of what has happened this year, are we not still dealing with a two-year period from the start date? Is not the 6 per cent per annum endemic to the calculations that you have presented?
No, it is not. The calculation in the feasibility study was carried out using the best figures available at the time. All those figures will be subject to scrutiny and will eventually turn from assumptions into actual figures. The assumption that rents will increase by 6 per cent rent in 2000-01 has already been replaced by the actual figure, which is 3 per cent. If one leaves all the other assumptions intact and reruns the valuation model on that basis, one comes out with a different figure—a minus, the exact level of which is dependent on which of the options one is looking at.
Is the key issue whether rent levels will have to go up in the period before the stock transfer takes off, in order to produce a positive valuation of the council's housing stock?
No. I am trying to answer that question, but obviously not very successfully.
I may be being rather simplistic in my views on this; however, the council is telling us, in its evidence, that the valuations are very sensitive to changes to the assumptions. Other things being equal, we are being told that instead of a 6 per cent rent increase, there will a 3 per cent rent increase, which, to my mind, would produce less income. That presumably means that, to balance the books, you will need more income from somewhere else; alternatively, it will do funny things to the evaluation.
We have to make it clear that Glasgow City Council's administration has not set next year's rent level with one eye on a possible stock transfer. We have set a 3 per cent increase for the reasons that I described earlier—the cost of the current level of service and a modest increase in repairs activities. I reject any notion that our decisions were influenced by the possibility of a stock transfer.
I will put the question in a different way: do you expect that significant rent increases, greater than the 3 per cent of this year, will be required to make your model work?
No.
I would not agree to them anyway.
That is an answer, but not quite to the question that I asked.
The project team is different from the advisory group. The project team comprised in-house staff who worked with external advisers on the feasibility study. The advisory group was set up so that the wider interest groups in the city could be aware of the feasibility study and could make some input to it.
And the now minister?
The feasibility study was finished before the now minister—
Did she accept it?
It was history by then.
All right, come on, John. It was Robert's question.
We are talking about history.
To return to Mr Brown's question, I am aware that a minority report was produced by some members of the advisory group. The report expressed concern about the amount of available information. However, the advisers and the project team have produced a huge amount of information as part of the work on the feasibility study. Today you have seen only the tip of iceberg; there are also detailed stock surveys and a wealth of background papers that identify and analyse in more detail the issues in the report that you have. That information has always been available and has been fully discussed, in my view, in the advisory group.
The members here are obviously not professional housing people. We do not have the expertise to make a critique of this. However, the people in the housing association movement do, and their critique is important. Have you now made available to the representatives of the housing associations the full information that they asked for at the time—for example, details of the alleged 20 per cent cost increase associated with the community-based option?
They had that information anyway. To calculate the housing association costs in the feasibility study, our advisers drew on previously published material that the housing associations have. No secret information was drawn on, only published research and Scottish Homes material on housing associations costs that is freely available to any housing association. In fact, most of the information probably comes from housing associations.
I want to move on to an issue that emerged from some of our discussions—the adequacy of the new investment that will be available to Glasgow City Council, which was said to average at about £17,500 a house. Do you accept that figure?
The figure is just over £17,000.
What is your view of the adequacy of that figure, in the light of previous modernisation work, the experience of other organisations and so on?
I know that evidence submitted to the committee suggested that the figure was inadequate. I wish to make a number of points about that.
Can you give more precise detail on the 20 per cent higher cost, which is assumed in the more devolved options in your paper? Do the options include an assumption about the future of the building works and housing management departments?
Are you asking about the management costs or the procurement costs?
The management costs.
Page 31 of the feasibility study is probably the most relevant. The third paragraph of section 17.6 identifies the sources of information the advisers used on housing association costs. The next paragraph shows what has—and what has not—been included in those costs. There is a fair bit of detail on the assumptions used by the consultants, such as the assumption about the expenditure for responsive and cyclical maintenance, the costs of the capital expenditure programme, the inflation figures used to calculate costs at the point of transfer and so on.
Have sensitivity analyses been done?
I am not sure that I understand.
How sensitive is the proposal if one or two assumptions change slightly?
Changes to the assumptions would feed back into the valuation calculation.
Councillor Gordon, you said that, in effect, transfer was the only deal on the table, and Mr Comley said that the council would not do anything without considering the implications five or six years down the line. On a number of occasions I have asked the Minister for Communities what investment will be available and what the plan for housing will be if the stock transfer proposal is rejected at ballot. In light of those statements—this is similar to the convener's question—how do you envisage the situation in Glasgow if stock transfer is rejected at ballot?
You are inviting me to predict what the Government might do if there is not a stock transfer to not-for-profit—
I am just wondering, as I have tried to get an answer.
I will have a stab at answering although, obviously, I cannot speak for the minister. I think that the Government would begin a drip-feed of smaller stock transfers to the housing associations in Glasgow. It might be that the Government would make capital available for housing associations to rehabilitate that stock at a more local level.
I assume that you would not consider that process ideal.
It would not be ideal because the tenants are in a hurry, as am I. It would not provide a quick solution or a solution for every tenant in every home, because it would not create a big model for cross-subsidy, which I am keen that there should be.
I think we all accept that private finance will invest in the income stream rather than in the fabric of the stock. Given that this is the only deal on the table and that you make plans over five or six years, is it not essential for you to have information about housing benefit so that you can communicate to potential lenders what they would invest in?
Let us be clear about what we mean by private finance: we mean the banks. I take this opportunity to remind everybody that local authorities borrow money from banks all the time—there is nothing brand new about borrowing money from banks for public investment. I have discussed the general issue informally with one or two senior bankers, although it would be inappropriate for me to discuss any specific matters with them. At the moment, the banks are taking the relaxed view that this is not rocket science, because the sad fact is that, through housing benefit, the Treasury stands behind most of the rents that are payable by Glasgow tenants. Therefore, to say that this model is sensitive to changes in areas such as housing benefit is a considerable understatement.
In the feasibility study, did you model the cash flows on a universal right to buy or on a diminishing right to buy?
That issue exercised us because one of my conditions for reaching a conclusion would be clarification of the Government's intentions for the right to buy. Our view is that what the minister announced about the right to buy will not have a critical impact—perhaps Mr Comley can quantify that. I do not think that the changes will cause such an increase in the right to buy that the model will not be viable.
On the technical point, the assumption in the feasibility study was that there would be only the preserved right to buy, under which existing council tenants retain the right to buy, as that was the effect of the legislation that was in force then.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders will be giving evidence to us. What is your understanding of the security that it will require before lending the money to a new trust? In the worst-case scenario of a potential bankruptcy, would the lenders have the right to break up the stock for sale to recover their investment, or would they have to operate under current housing association rules?
They are lending against the income stream from the rents, but they take a security over the title to the housing stock.
We need to move on to other issues, but I will take a short question from Kenny Gibson.
I feel a bit of an intruder here today—it feels like a Scottish Labour party reunion. Charlie, you talked about every tenant in every home, but the proposal is not about every tenant in every home. We talked about the assumptions in the feasibility study. If I remember rightly, when we discussed this on 22 September 1998 at the Glasgow City Council housing services committee, the report by HACAS Exchequer Services suggested that only 74,420 homes would be modernised under the project, yet around 94,000 are currently occupied. Given that the 20,000 or so that are occupied that will not be included if the transfer goes ahead are among the worst stock with some of the most socially excluded tenants, what provision is being made for them? Will the tenants concerned be advised pre-ballot that their homes will not be modernised under the scheme if it goes ahead?
I will give a broad answer and David Comley can quantify it. We will not be party to a solution that does not deliver for every tenant in every home. We know that the demand for social rented housing nationally is declining. A major study, which is not quite complete, on the future demand for social rented housing in Glasgow suggests that the overall demand will be 70,000 to 75,000.
That figure of 75,000 is another of the assumptions that are built into the feasibility study. It is the council's assumption rather than a calculation by the advisers. It comes from the council's housing plan and is our estimate of long-term demand—by that I mean 15 to 20 years. As Councillor Gordon said, there is a fall in demand for rented housing in the city. We need to have the best estimates of what demand will be. We have commissioned a study jointly with Scottish Homes that is very close to reporting—the final report is due in mid-February. I have no doubt that the final figure will be less than 95,000.
Can you—
Kenny, I must move on as other members have not spoken and we are already over-running.
I am pleased that the witnesses have indicated that they want this proposal to deliver for the tenants of Glasgow. It appears that the desire to push the housing stock transfer proposals forward comes from that.
I would be concerned if tenants were saying that they are not properly consulted by the council. I have had tenant delegates in from all the neighbourhood forums. I have told them what I was at liberty to divulge about the later stages of the process. In November, I wrote to every tenant in Glasgow to bring them up to speed on what is going on. However, there are no tenant representatives on the steering group. It could be argued that that is a weakness—if people are not involved, they do not feel included and might suspect that part of the agenda is being hidden from them.
It would be wrong to leave the committee with the impression that tenants have not been involved in the process. They have not been as involved as the council would have liked them to be, especially in recent months. Tenants are getting frustrated at the fact that, although they have achieved a level of involvement and knowledge, not much has happened in the last 10 months.
Can you give us some idea of the remit for the forthcoming consultation? From the council's point of view, what are the objectives of the consultation? What do you see the tenants being able to contribute and what influence will they have?
I would go further than that and say that the tenants should be leading the consultation. This month, if we have a deal between the council and the Scottish Executive, we must allow the tenants to form an interim board to knit together the local wish lists and notional investment plans that they have been drawing up in their neighbourhood forums into a city-wide investment plan. By the summer—perhaps June—they should produce a proposal that the board can consult the city's tenants on. Once the results of that consultation have been received, the board can come forward with a final proposal for a stock transfer ballot.
I do not know whether your schedule permits it, but I have no doubt that the city-wide tenants group would welcome the opportunity to give evidence.
It has written to us asking to do that. I will raise that issue with members later.
My final point is not about participation, but housing allocations. If the stock transfer proves to be successful, will the council retain any stock at all? If not, how will you deal with your statutory obligations? What recommendations will you make to the Scottish Executive for the forthcoming housing bill? What do you think should be included in that bill to ensure that Glasgow City Council can deliver for homeless people in Glasgow?
I mentioned earlier that we are keen for local government to be given the strategic enabling powers. We see that as a step towards eliminating the democratic deficit. As a rule, it is far better for issues to be dealt with by locally elected and accountable people, rather than quangos.
Do you think that the existing legislation is sufficient? On the basis of what operates now, do you think that there will be enough leeway for homeless people in Glasgow to be housed by housing associations?
We definitely need a new housing act for Scotland. If tenants do not get a new type of secure tenancy in which they are transferred from municipal control, I believe that they will reject any stock transfer. That is how strongly tenants feel about tenure.
It may be that new legislation is necessary to ensure that the council can deliver its statutory homelessness functions while it is not a landlord. As Councillor Gordon said, the council is currently working on what it thinks might be necessary for the new housing bill, and it will make a submission in due course about it. Homelessness will be examined in that submission.
I want to make some points about the condition of the housing stock under the investment programme. In your submission, you cite the figure of £1.76 billion as being the investment required to bring the housing stock to an acceptable condition. The figure that you have used today for the amount of money that will be available as a result of stock transfer is £1.3 billion. That is a significant discrepancy of more than 30 per cent. Can you elaborate on that?
I refer Mr Raffan to the first document inside the pack we distributed. It has a figure of £1.25 billion. We have refined our estimates over the years. From memory, the figure of £1.76 billion was based on an assumption that all the existing stock required investment.
So that covers modernisation, comprehensive improvement and so on?
Yes.
That means, I take it, that demolition and new build would come under other figures.
The demolition requirement to get down to the figure of 75,000 houses with a long-term life is included.
Earlier, you mentioned there being too many multi-storey blocks. Would the demolition requirement mainly cover those, or would it involve different types of housing?
This is preliminary, but I think that demolition will predominantly be of tenement and multi-storey stock.
Over what time scale will the investment programme for which we have a figure run?
Every 10 years.
Otherwise, it would be in excess of 30. Councillor Gordon said that he linked the whole investment programme to training and job creation, and Mr Comley said that it could create up to 4,000 jobs. I was an MP when improvement grants were introduced. The Government of the time suddenly made large amounts of money available and the construction industry could not cope. A large amount of the work done was not just of bad quality, but sufficient for legal actions to be continuing now. Many cowboy builders were attracted at the time.
That is a valid concern. There could be difficulties. Arguably, we should have started to train building workers before now to prepare for the investment that may take place in Glasgow. There already are skills shortages in the private construction industry.
Mr Comley's remark that large contracts will produce procurement savings increases my concern. Large contracts can also lead to lower quality work. Councillor Gordon has said that big is beautiful: not the smaller or the phased housing stock transfers, but the wholesale transfer. I appreciate your arguments, but I have concerns about the investment programme being of sufficiently high quality.
I do not think that I said that big is always beautiful; I made a more balanced statement. I would not like to give the impression that the renovation work or the maintenance arrangements would consist of one big contract. The industry would have to be organised in such a way that consortia of medium and small contractors would bring their resources to bear. Our current in-house resources would be available for maintenance work.
So would you be in less of a hurry?
I am in a hurry because I have thousands of housing and building maintenance staff who try to go that extra mile for tenants, yet we do not have the resources to satisfy tenants. We have to say no too often. That affects the morale of the staff.
It will have to be planned very carefully.
In your opening statement, you said that the council would have a more strategic role. Could you elaborate on what that role would be?
Perhaps Mr Comley could outline that in terms of the professional issues. We would like local authorities to have some of the powers currently enjoyed by Scottish Homes. That is on the table and the minister has already made a statement on the matter. It is important that—in the delivery of other local services, particularly the social inclusion agenda—we have a strategic overview of what is happening in every housing sector. We would like to be in a position to hold the reins and to sustain partnership to ensure that housing delivers for the whole of Glasgow.
You have used some interesting terminology: "holding the reins" and "overview". Those are the vague words that always seem to crop up when that ghastly phrase "social inclusion" is used. Nobody has defined that phrase to my satisfaction. Do you mean that you will monitor matters, but that you will not have much power?
I am not in the business of giving away power.
I gather that.
I leave that to others.
It has been apparent for some years that fairly radical measures would be needed to solve the increasingly acute problem of Glasgow's housing stock. I am attracted by much of your submission—I have to retain some personal credibility by maintaining that attitude. That said, I still have concerns about the model that you have suggested. The success story in Scottish public housing over the past 20 years has undoubtedly been community-based housing associations, because people have been given ownership of problems and have responded positively to that responsibility. I am slightly concerned that any single, monolithic stock transfer, despite having community-based aspects, might lose sight of the fact that people respond positively when they see how effective their input has been on their area. Such a step might make them feel that they are remote from any decisions on housing.
My response to the argument that community ownership is superior to municipal ownership is that it all depends on funding. Community ownership through stock transfer has been successful because it has been funded; municipal ownership in Glasgow has recently been perceived as unsuccessful because we have had no money. The fault is not inherent in the municipal model. Although I am comfortable with people perceiving community ownership as a priority, very few tenants questioned in one major survey raised it as an issue, and not every tenant would necessarily recognise or define the phrase "community ownership".
I want to pursue the question of the contractual relationships that are likely to evolve between city-wide and community-based organisations if the stock transfer goes ahead. What would be covered in such contracts? Will tenants have an input into any decisions on the terms of the contracts? Furthermore, what procedures will be put in place to resolve any disputes that are bound to arise in such a set-up?
I should remind everyone that we do not yet have any proposals on that matter, so the area is still slightly speculative.
The penultimate paper that we sent to the committee—"The Proposed Stock Transfer Concept"—was our attempt to put some flesh on the framework suggested by the advisers in the feasibility study. It contains a table showing the respective responsibilities of the city-wide organisation and the local organisations, for both capital investment and day-to-day housing management. We tried to give tenants as much control as possible and we proposed that the local organisations should have committees or boards made up only of tenants. The council has always intended that the staff who are responsible for delivering the local housing management service should work for the local tenants and should be directly accountable to them. There should be a formal mechanism of staff secondment or dual contracts to ensure that that can be delivered.
Staffing is an important issue, and I would like to ask about the direct labour organisation and, in particular, about the model for one big-bang transfer and the minister's proposal—as we understand it—for having a series of smaller community-based organisations. Has there been any separation of staff who might be involved in the new venture? Is that why Mr Comley is not involved in the new steering group? What consultations have you had with the unions, and what are their roles and responsibilities? What is their view on the options available? Is their view what is driving you towards the one big-bang approach?
I have regular meetings with the unions through the joint trade union committee in the council. When they contact my office to request a meeting, I try to meet them within at most 48 hours. As a lifelong trade unionist, I believe that the trade union movement should be properly consulted.
Do you foresee problems with the minister's proposal for a separation into 30 smaller units; or is your drive for the big bang partly in order to ensure that the DLO remains intact for the whole of Glasgow?
The minister will have to speak for herself on her emerging thoughts. I do not think that there is much disagreement that the maintenance organisation must be city-wide, but that it must be organised at local level. Its maintenance contracts should be individual ones at a local level. That is not all that different from the status quo—at the moment, we have a city-wide DLO that is organised into local repair teams. Its focus is local, and the monitoring of its performance is local. Glasgow has a superb building department DLO. Given the level playing field of best value, the DLO will change, but I am confident that it will survive and prosper.
Thank you. I would like to wind up—
I have to say, this is fundamental—
With all due respect, I have a pattern for chairing these meetings that I think has the broad support of the committee. We are—
But—
No. We are well over time. I have a couple of questions that I want to ask, to wind up. We have designed that method of doing things. Please, Kenny; I let Fiona back in. You have to accept—
But this is fundamental to my constituents and—
This is not the appropriate forum to raise constituency matters.
On a point of order. I do not know what other members of the committee think, but I am quite happy for Mr Gibson to ask one more question. I do not want in any way to question your authority, but—
I do not think that this is the appropriate forum for a constituency matter. I am trying to be fair. Please, Kenny; I let you in earlier. We can pursue this later.
I think that this is very bad form and very discourteous.
I am genuinely sorry about that, because I did want to let you in.
Charlie is fine.
Yes, I have known you for many years as Charlie.
I do not think that some people who are closely involved in this project would regard me as a visionary. However, as I said earlier, it is more important to do the right thing, even if it is for the wrong reasons. I am a pragmatist. There is more than one way to skin a cat. If the world were different, if the United Kingdom Parliament were different, and if the Scottish Parliament were different, things might be done differently. But the fact is that the tenants of Glasgow are living in houses that are, in the main, of an unacceptable standard. All of us have a responsibility to do something about that and we should not lightly discard any model that allows us to do something about that.
My final question is on something that has come up on our agenda a number of times. Why should Glasgow dominate the agenda of Scottish housing so much?
That question does not relate only to housing, does it? You could say the same about local government finance.
Thank you for your evidence. We might be in touch again if we have other issues to raise with you as we reach the conclusion of our report, because we had a range of questions that we did not reach today. Thank you for the quality of your evidence.
I do not know about that, but I enjoyed it.
We are now moving into private session. I am sorry—I have been reminded that the reflection on the evidence is in public, and that we will go into private session after that.
I agree with that. I was interested by the evidence on how the debt is to be handled. There is a portfolio of loans of £940 million, each of which is for a different amount. They will be subject to individual contracts that will have to be agreed with the Scottish Executive. We need to know more about that. Have the contracts been agreed? How firm is the Scottish Executive's commitment to agree each of those contracts with the council? Will the contracts be binding on successive Executives? If the revenue support grant is to service those debts pound for pound, what will be the impact on other Scottish local authorities? Is the funding coming out of the larger pool, which will affect other authorities? A wide area has been opened up for investigation.
I understand that in his evidence to the Finance Committee yesterday, Jack McConnell addressed the issues of what has been set aside, the deal that has been struck—which is an important factor in what we are looking at—and, if there is a debt servicing arrangement, the guarantees that there will be for a future Scottish Executive in 10 or 15 years' time. We can find out from the Minister for Finance what he perceives the financial arrangements will be, and follow up some of the points that were raised at that committee.
We should get the evidence from the Finance Committee.
Yes. I am not sure whether the meeting was yesterday, but the evidence certainly was given at its previous meeting.
We could get the evidence, and write to Jack once we have considered it.
That is one aspect of the financial arrangement. I was struck by the fact that the assumptions on which the financial model is based are so susceptible to change, and that even relatively minor changes can have a major impact on the viability and feasibility of the whole project. We need to delve into the financial aspects of the matter, because I am not sure that the finances add up.
I accept your points, but I feel a bit better because we heard convincing evidence.
I share Alex's concern. Like you, convener, I was reassured to some extent, but I fear that the matter was treated superficially. There are a couple of other issues to be addressed. If one accepts that the way forward is debt guarantee and stock investment, there are different degrees of central procurement, and balances between central and local procurement. We have not got to the heart of the issue. Cross-subsidisation complicated the matter. We did not pursue it very far, so I would appreciate some guidance.
I would have liked to address the issue of cross-subsidy.
Yes, and the matters of the direct labour organisation and the housing management department, and their involvement in all the options that are before us.
There is a range of financial questions that we did not ask. We should either write to the council or find some other means of getting the information.
What is the problem with cross-subsidy?
I want to explore it more—I am not against it.
I thought that it was attractive, as the burden would not fall on one group.
However, cross-subsidy makes it difficult to break it down financially into the smaller groupings that most of us would like there to be.
There are many questions about second-stage transfers that were not asked today. Our questioning was too broad.
We need answers to many questions before we interview Wendy Alexander. Much of our discussion with her will be about the financial framework that is being set by the Scottish Executive. It was clear that much of the council's evidence bounced the questions back to the Executive. The council told us that it is doing the best that it can within the financial framework that it has been handed.
I get the impression that Alex would like to write our questions for Wendy.
Much information is required. The feasibility study was written off, because it was said that there would be different figures in the real world, but the whole idea is being sold on the basis of the feasibility study.
There were 138,000 houses not long ago. People's aspirations are now different.
The valuation will depend on the number of houses. Why are houses being transferred to a new trust, if they will be demolished?
John McAllion suggested that we consider the feasibility study and examine all the options, but we have to assess the recommended option. I do not know over what period the feasibility study was carried out, but I imagine that it required much time and effort by experts. At some point we have to accept that those professionals have been able to complete a thorough job. Their figures can only be estimates and guesstimates. It is only when work is done on a proper bid for the housing stock that the answers can be found to the questions that John asks. It is practically impossible to get into detailed financial arguments.
It is not our job to carry out an analysis of the Glasgow stock transfer—if it were, that would be all that we would examine. We must consider the robustness of what one council is doing and whether the process by which it has formed its proposals makes sense. We will have to challenge some figures to find out whether those proposals are robust, but our focus is the process of stock transfer across Scotland, using one council as an example. We should not get too tied up in the detail. We must test whether the proposals hold water. On some issues, the jury is out, so we have to tease out some of the information that we did not gather. That is why we have an adviser.
During the taking of evidence, it was said that the proposal should be scrutinised as it develops. One of the gaps that the committee needs to address is the question of who will scrutinise the proposal and for what purpose.
The whole idea is being sold on the basis of the success of the Glasgow transfer. If the figures for Glasgow are being rigged, the question of housing stock transfers—
I thought that the witnesses were convincing today.
I am not talking about them. Charlie Gordon is reacting to the Executive's decisions. The Executive is laying down rules that affect what Glasgow can and cannot do. The Executive is the engine behind stock transfers and it is clear that, if Glasgow had a choice, it would not transfer the housing stock.
Charlie Gordon said twice that this was the only deal on the table, and on three or four other occasions he referred to that without using those exact words. His answer to the question on whether he was enthusiastic about the transfer was clearly made in the knowledge that the minister was sitting behind him. He really meant, "The answer to your question is contained within your question—no, I'm not enthusiastic, but I am not going to say that up front." His position was clear both from his last answer and from his evidence.
I am anxious to discuss our next meeting, as we need to get our heads round the questions for the Council of Mortgage Lenders. I have asked Martin Verity and Rodger Evans to do a bit of work on pulling together the different strands of our programme, as I am concerned about it. We should focus on the details of our next meeting.
Is our next meeting on Monday, rather than Wednesday?
Yes. I ask Martin to give us details about the next meeting.
The meeting next Monday will include a visit to Queens Cross Housing Association in the morning. A programme has been drawn up for that visit, which has been e-mailed to members. In the afternoon, the committee will take evidence from the Council of Mortgage Lenders in Glasgow City Council's Geoff Shaw room. The committee may wish to hold the first 15 minutes of that meeting in private. That is the basic agenda for—
Where is the Geoff Shaw room?
It is in a building that was formerly part of Strathclyde Regional Council.
I thought that this morning's evidence session worked quite well, because we agreed our lines of questioning in advance. It would be useful to hold a short, private meeting before the next such session. It took us only 10 minutes to work out the areas on which we wanted to concentrate, and it would be productive if we could do that again on Monday, because we would get much more comprehensive evidence.
That was not down to organisation alone—I wish that it had been—as Mary Taylor and Stephen Curtis had prepared questions. Some of the questions that we have already will inform our session on Monday, but we might need to tighten them up a bit.
It would be worth repeating the exercise, if possible, by getting questions from Mary Taylor, as our next evidence session will cover a slightly more specialist area.
Okay.