In 2025-26 the Scottish Government’s social security policies will cost nearly £7 billion. This is forecast to increase to £7.7 billion in 2026-27, rising to £9.5 billion in 2030, according to the Scottish Fiscal Commission.

The Scottish Government receives block grant adjustments for social security from the UK Government to fund devolved social security spending.

However, it has chosen to spend more on social security than the funding it receives. Most of the additional spend is allocated to the Scottish Child Payment and Adult Disability Payment.

The UK Government is proposing cuts to disability benefits. If these go ahead, it will reduce the funding received by the Scottish Government.

Forecasts predict that these different approaches mean that, by 2030, the Scottish Government may be spending £2 billion more on social security than it receives through social security block grant adjustments.

In May, the Cabinet Secretary for Social Justice, Shirely Anne Somerville MSP, explained the Scottish Government’s approach to the Committee:

"I point to the fact that what we have chosen to invest in social security, which I make no apologies for, over and above the funding that we receive from the UK Government is projected to be less than 3.5 per cent of the total Scottish Government resource budget by 2029-30. I do not underestimate the challenge, but it will be looked at to ensure that the budgets are balanced, as they need to be.

"There is a gap between what we will receive from the UK Government and what we will spend, but we will fill the gap by using the money that we have in the Scottish Government’s budget. Does it make it more challenging in some areas? Yes. Will people suggest that we should take money away from different pots and different policies? Yes. The Government has made it clear that we will not address the challenge by taking away services or support from people who already receive them." (Official Report, 29 May 2025)