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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Session 6: 13 May 2021 to 8 April 2026
  7. Current session: 14 May 2026 to 14 September 2026
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Displaying 16 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2026

Liam McArthur

Are there equivalent situations elsewhere, or is it unusual for a Government not to be able to have a negative reserve, even if it remains within set limits?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2026

Liam McArthur

I will go back to the issue that Liam Kerr pursued on the ScotWind revenues. As we have discussed, using one-off payments for ongoing funding commitments is not advisable. I recall that being said when ministers were making announcements in the chamber during session 6 on ScotWind resources being drawn down. Hope was also expressed that resource would not be required. In a sense, it said that the resources would be drawn down to cover its bases, but the hope was that the resource would not be drawn down.

Earlier, Mr Roy gave a couple of figures in relation to the amount of money still in the ScotWind fund. Are you aware of how much has been drawn down based on the outturn figures that we have at the moment?

I am conscious that, elsewhere in your analysis, one of the risk factors is in relation to climate change impacts. Any one-off funding that is supposed to be deployed for investment in net zero measures but is redirected elsewhere, making it unavailable for net zero investment, would be a risky strategy, or would increase the associated risk.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2026

Liam McArthur

In the forecast evaluation report, the general message from the commission seems to be that there has been an improvement in the data that is provided, which, by definition, must improve the accuracy of the forecasting. However, I noted that the forecast was out by around 7 per cent in relation to the land and buildings transaction tax revenues and by 39 per cent with regard to the Scottish landfill tax—I think that the latter was a result of a decision to delay the implementation of the policy. Does anything from those examples suggest that although the clarity around the data has improved, there is scope for further improvement in order to improve the forecast, too, and to reduce the level of risk of reconciliations and so on down the line?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2026

Liam McArthur

Good morning. Thank you very much for your opening statement, which set the scene well.

You talked about the commitment in the fiscal sustainability delivery plan to the public sector workforce reduction of 0.5 per cent, and the fact that the figure appears to have risen during 2025-26. Can you set out the reasons for that in any more detail? Are those reasons likely to pertain in the coming years—the consequences of the Government not getting on track on workforce reductions?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2026

Liam McArthur

Having been present when the decisions were announced in relation to the policy change around landfill, I know that the ministers did not make much mention of its implications and financial consequences. However, it is not entirely clear why the higher-than-expected repayments in relation to the additional dwelling supplement were not predictable—I am not quite sure what gave rise to that.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2026

Liam McArthur

This is not necessarily at the same end of the spectrum in terms of the quantum, but I was slightly surprised to see the errors in relation to projections on adult disability payment. There is quite a bit of debate about projected social security costs. Having established what has happened in the past couple of years, are you confident that predicting those costs in future will be done with greater accuracy? Do you expect the trend that we have seen on take-up of ADP to continue?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2026

Liam McArthur

It might be too early to say, but were there indications in the statement from the First Minister and the programme for government yesterday to suggest that getting back on to the trajectory that was set out in the sustainable delivery plan is more likely as a result of some of those changes?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2026

Liam McArthur

I appreciate that it was never likely that the process for workforce reductions would be linear, but is it surprising that, having set that ambition, the first move is for the figures to go up, which will then require greater reductions in subsequent years.

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2026

Liam McArthur

During the review in 2028, will the limits and thresholds need to be considered, or are there other things—for example, the phasing of funding—that could allow the whole system to work more smoothly and predictably for the Government?

Finance and Public Administration Committee [Draft]

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Publications)

Meeting date: 2 September 2026

Liam McArthur

What are the implications of that in a budgeting sense for the Government? Is it therefore likely always to err on the side of caution?