To ask the Scottish Government whether it has any plans to measure post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Scotland in the event that ZOE COVID-19 funding is reduced by the UK Government, and how it plans to measure the impact of long COVID on individuals, and the workforce.
The Scottish Government recognises the importance of measuring post-acute sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infections, or long COVID, in Scotland. This is needed to help forecast and plan the provision of healthcare services for people experiencing long COVID.
Currently the best source of data about people with long COVID in Scotland is the monthly Office for National Statistics (ONS) reporting on ‘Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK’. The ONS survey sample is weighted to represent people aged two years and over living in private households in the UK. This contrasts with the ZOE COVID Symptoms Study, whose participants are self-selecting and are not necessarily representative of the whole population.
The most recent ONS monthly report, published on 6 May 2022, covers the four-week period ending 3 April 2022 ( Prevalence of ongoing symptoms following coronavirus (COVID-19) infection in the UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) ). It showed that in Scotland:
- An estimated 151,000 people (2.88%) of the private residential population, who had (or suspected they had) COVID-19, self-reported experiencing long COVID of any duration .
- An estimated 105,000 people (2.00%) of the private residential population, who had (or suspected they had) COVID-19 at least 12 weeks previously , self-reported experiencing long COVID.
- An estimated 64,000 people (1.22%) of the private residential population, who had (or suspected they had) COVID-19 at least 12 months previously , self-reported experiencing long COVID.
It is estimated that self-reported long COVID symptoms were adversely affecting the day-to-day activities of 107,000 people in private households in Scotland with long COVID of any duration, with an estimated 36,000 of these individuals reporting that their ability to undertake their day-to-day activities had been limited a lot.
Going forward, Public Health Scotland will lead on surveillance of long COVID. It is currently anticipated that this will be undertaken via the EAVE II study, described below.
The Scottish Government’s Chief Scientist Office has funded nine research projects designed to improve our understanding of the longer term effects of long COVID. Three projects focus on measuring the prevalence and symptoms of long COVID. All started in early 2021 and will run for two years.
LTE2015.pdf (scot.nhs.uk) ‘Developing and validating a risk prediction model for long COVID-19’. Undertaken by the University of Edinburgh, in collaboration with Public Health Scotland, this research uses the EAVE II study, originally funded by the Medical Research Council ( An Introduction to EAVE II | The University of Edinburgh ). EAVE II used a pseudonymised patient dataset to track the COVID-19 pandemic as it unfolded across Scotland. This dataset will now be used to create a tool to identify people at greatest risk of developing long COVID. In the course of developing that tool, the research will generate data about the number of people in Scotland diagnosed with long COVID and their use of health services.
lte2006.pdf (scot.nhs.uk) ‘Defining and understanding the longer-term effects of COVID-19: a mixed methods study exploring the frequency, nature, and impact of ‘long COVID’ in the Scottish population’. Undertaken by the university of Glasgow, this study will identify how many people continue to be unwell, their symptoms, and how it affects their lives. Scottish adults who had a positive COVID-19 test, and a negative test comparison group, will be sent an SMS message inviting them to take part in the study. If they agree, they will answer questions about their health before and after COVID-19, and any effect on their lives, with the questions repeated at regular intervals.
LTE2008.pdf (scot.nhs.uk) ‘COVID-19: Tracking Persistent Symptoms in Scotland (TraPSS)’ – undertaken by the University of the West of Scotland. This project aims to improve our understanding of long COVID in the Scottish population, and particularly in people whose original symptoms were relatively mild. The current evidence describing the types of symptoms other studies have reported will be reviewed, and people will be surveyed at different stages of recovery to find out what kinds of persistent symptoms they have.