I thank Sir Russell Hillhouse for accepting our invitation to give evidence to the committee. Good morning, Sir Russell. I understand that you have been following our deliberations and the evidence that we have heard so far. You will be the last person to give evidence before we hear from and question the Minister for Finance after the Easter recess. We are coming towards the conclusion of our deliberations and we will produce a report before the summer recess.
Thank you. As you probably know, I have spent my whole working life in the civil service, mostly in the Scottish Office. Back in the 1960s, I was involved in local government finance at quite an important stage, which included the beginning of the rate support grant, for example. I then went to the Treasury on secondment for three years in the early 1970s. When I came back, we were in the fairly early stages of pulling together the central finance function in the Scottish Office; I was involved in improving the way in which we handled public expenditure with Willie Ross and then Bruce Millan. I got out of finance for three years in the late 1970s but came back as principal finance officer in 1980. I stayed in that job for five years, at a stage when the development of very much better financial management was a high priority for the then Government. It was an interesting and rather challenging time.
We will bear that last comment in mind. Your memorandum talks about the annual public spending round. I suspect that, during the last few months of your tenure, and following the comprehensive spending review, the move towards public service agreements and a three-year budget was under way. You have given some details of what happened in the annual spending round and of the way in which you operated in the Scottish Office. Can you say—we accept that this would be speculation—how that system would have differed had you been in the position, as we now are, of having three-year budgeting, which gives the ability to plan ahead with perhaps greater clarity than you suggest was possible under the old system?
In fact, the comprehensive spending review had not got very far with us in Scotland at that point, because, to an extent, we were waiting to see what would emerge from the big exercises that were taking place in England. The public spending agreements had not really got going with us, although they must have happened quite soon after I left.
Do you think that it would be appropriate for us to set longer-term targets? We have heard that some states in the United States of America have 10-year targets to which everything has to be fitted—although, obviously, those targets may change depending on the political circumstances. Would that be appropriate or helpful for us?
That depends on the services that you are considering. The work that has been done on target setting and the attempts that have been made to look at ultimate goals that involve a contribution from a variety of services have been very helpful. We tried to do the same in the past, but considerable political will and the development of a lot of consensus in society are required to make it really worth while. However, I am sure that it is a very good idea.
On the front page of your paper, you talk about demographic changes and so on. We are considering long-term planning, and there seems to be a lack of predictive statistics that are sufficiently reliable. In your period, did you feel that that area was not dealt with well enough? What would you like to see in the future for us?
Good figures were available for many of the things that we were looking at, but, as others have rightly said, things can always be better. On the whole, straight demography was not a problem—the registrar general would give us all sorts of interesting figures, about the changes in age balance, for example. The long-term trends in morbidity and mortality were also pretty reliable. A lot of work was put into predicting what the outputs from the various bits of the education service would be, although there was a time when the demand from young people and others to enter higher education considerably outstripped anything that we had forecast. That was very exciting but a little bit daunting. However hard you try to forecast accurately, unpredictable things can happen, and no one could have forecast that one.
In your opening statement, you talked about your role as permanent secretary in helping to deliver the priorities—presumably the political priorities—of the secretary of state. Do you feel that we are likely to be able to move away from that in the near future, or will we become more machine-like, which is exactly what has happened? Richard Simpson talked about 10-year planning, but that involves looking at things less politically. Is there room for us to do that, or are we still in a political dynamic?
That is the exciting thing about what this Parliament will do, and about what committees such as yours will do, is it not? If you consider the way in which some secretaries of state tried to develop a wider public dialogue about what the priorities should be, you will realise that it is not novel to try to achieve more consensus and to give better information to the public and to the leading opinion formers in Scotland. In turn, that process will inform the decisions that the politicians take, which need not be along party lines at all.
The development of an economic research department within the Scottish Executive or former Scottish Office is a recent phenomenon, as is the appointment of a chief economic adviser with a staff of just five. I understand from Dr Andrew Goudie's evidence that they are completely overwhelmed and that he is hoping for a significant increase in the number of staff. Surely that highlights a major problem that perhaps existed when you were at the Scottish Office—that there were not enough data and that they were not reliable.
We had a chief economic adviser at times in the past—Gavin McCrone, who successively became head of two Scottish departments but kept on his role as chief economic adviser. We did not replace him when he retired. That reflected the fact that, at that point, the chief input that we required from economists was, as Dr Goudie explained, mainly on the micro-economic side. That input was well deployed.
A bit of a false economy.
I do not know that it was at that time. These things are done to reflect the priorities of the Government of the day and the things that it thinks are important and necessary in the circumstances. We had advice from economists on macro-economic aspects in so far as they were relevant to the allocation of public expenditure.
You mentioned the on-going dialogue with local government, which is, I would say, a dialogue of some creative tension.
Yes.
Some of the work of Andrew Goudie's department on the local government formulae, including measuring both rural and urban deprivation, is critical at the moment and a matter of controversy within local government finance. However, we seem not to have hard, reliable statistics to back up the way in which the formulae are being used.
That is the one area on which a huge amount of work has been done over many years. Dr Peter Collings—who came before this committee last week—played a major part in that. He is a professional statistician as well as a professional accountant, and is generally a very able chap. He worked on this matter in the mid-1980s.
I do not want to talk about policy, but perhaps I could go on to a different tack—structure. It is clear from your written submission that you like the fluidity of structure within the Scottish Executive and the absence of rigid, vertical silos, as described last week by the witnesses from the Treasury. There is an ability to sort out spending priorities without acrimony and with some consensus. You are presumably a strong devotee of such a structure and not of providing our Minister for Finance with a ministry.
Yes. We were very fortunate in managing to create—it was not easy—a way of doing things and a set of attitudes that cultivated openness and allowed people to see and understand the whole picture. As I state in the paper that I have presented to the committee, that worked both at senior official level and, very often, at a political level. It is important for ministers to understand the total impact of what is being decided and not just the bit that affects their services. Ministers are all members of the Scottish Parliament and their constituents are interested in everything, not just in the thing that the member happens to have responsibility for. I think that that is a very good way of doing things. Under the Westminster system, decisions are, in the end, decided at the top—at Cabinet level. However, the process used not to encourage the way of thinking that we are talking about. More recently, as Gill Noble explained to the committee last week, the process has started to do that rather more.
I want to ask about the economic role of the Scottish Executive. Should it have more of a Treasury role, now that the Treasury no longer takes the interest that it did—although I am sure that it still takes an interest—in Scottish affairs?
Do you mean the Treasury in the economic management sense?
Exactly. Do you think that we should push that side of things?
The reason why the Treasury has that particularly strong role at Westminster is that it is responsible for taxation and fiscal policy in general. That situation does not apply here yet—we have limited power. Andrew Goudie and his small team will undoubtedly be keeping an eye on the situation. If there is anything on which they can advise the ministerial team, I imagine that they will.
I would like to build on another point raised by Keith Raffan. Several people have commented on the collegiate, consensual way of working that has been built up. You spoke about that in relation to the Scottish Office and said that you thought that it was a good thing. Several people have commented on it. Would you say that there is a danger either of that breaking down or of us moving away from it?
That is one thing that I really have no idea about. One should never go back and meddle. When I retired, I retired. I do not think that there is anything to suggest that what you suggest will happen. It would be a pity if it did, especially as Westminster and Whitehall are now belatedly trying to move away from the confrontational style. If it is the intention of the present Executive to continue to behave in a more collegiate way, with people understanding one another's problems and working with one another to pursue wider goals, that is excellent—that is how things ought to be. It would also fit into the way in which the Parliament seems to be trying to organise its collective approach to policy issues.
You make a comment in your written evidence about the annual public spending round. You say that the total money available to the Scottish Office or to the secretary of state
Assistance to local authorities indeed used to be dealt with separately. The way in which local government finance has been treated within the UK public expenditure system has varied over the years—it has chopped and changed many times. There was a major change in the system's definition some years ago—in the early 1990s, I think. At that time, there was a change to which bits of local authority spending were to be in the main control total. My memory is a bit rusty on the technicalities, but I know that the Scottish block definition was changed at that point.
That was a way of evening out the relationship between the Scottish Office and the Treasury and of stopping annual squabbles. Is that correct?
It certainly removed a great deal of the annual argument about local government finance and it provided the secretary of state with a plain choice about how far he would put his resources into the revenue support grant for local government. The revenue support grant was brought into the equation: more money on it meant less on something else, and vice versa. The formula applied to the changes in the equivalent element of cash transfer in England, just as it applies to all other spending changes.
Sir Russell, your paper states:
Although procedures within some Whitehall departments might have been every bit as good as Scottish Office procedures, the same did not hold across all departments. For example, the department dealing with the demands of higher education—the Department for Education and Science, as it was—might have had little understanding of the pressures on the Home Office or the Department of Health and Social Security, and all of us were always very concerned about what on earth was going on in the Ministry of Defence.
Did that transparency apply only to the Scottish Office and not to relations with other Whitehall departments?
The Scottish Office had open lines of communication to corresponding Whitehall departments, especially when the whole Government was planning a policy change or a major shift in priorities in England. Although certain measures might not have applied in Scotland, it was good to know what was going to happen south of the border so that our ministers could decide whether to follow such policies. In Scotland, it was quite embarrassing not to be aware of some wonderful new scheme that was about to be implemented in England, even if it was not used in the end. As a result, there were always good informal contacts with Whitehall departments; sometimes the Treasury helped with that, because it wanted a process of rational decision-making on certain matters.
Did any Scottish divergence from UK Government policies create any significant tensions? I ask that question because there might well be increasing policy divergence on how the Scottish Parliament chooses to spend its money.
The main chunks of spending went along well-determined lines. For example, the previous Government had made certain commitments on health spending that allowed very little room for manoeuvre. In Scotland, we had to achieve a certain minimum rate of uplift in health spending, which proved quite expensive as it was a very large programme. Similarly, our room for manoeuvre in local government spending was often extremely restricted.
So a new pilot, for example, created annoyance instead of enthusiasm.
The trouble was that whereas we could decide to put more money into, say, tourism, Whitehall departments had to get Treasury agreement to do the same and sometimes they did not get agreement.
As the convener has pointed out, your paper refers to
Actually, we were very open with that committee early on. We were way ahead of Whitehall in the quality of information that we submitted to the committee. For many years, we sent the committee an unpublished document—which it then published—that provided the sort of detail that was latterly published in the departmental reports for all departments.
When budgets were set, was there any measurement of outcomes of current spending?
Yes. This theme has been developing for many years. In my early days in the Scottish Office, there was not much measurement of outcomes, except for capital projects where we suddenly had to explain what had happened.
One of the councils told us that although there was much emphasis on new programmes, not much effort was being put into closing down programmes that had reached their natural end.
I wonder what that witness had in mind. Such measures were taken when there was a particular drive to find out what programmes had outlived their usefulness. I am sure that fundamental spending reviews would also have carefully examined the matter. It is important to review the range of programmes, because the need for certain programmes may no longer exist or it might be possible to use resources more effectively on something different.
I want to maintain that theme for a moment, Sir Russell. I was surprised to find that your paper does not mention monitoring or measuring outcomes. Last week, Gill Noble said that Treasury monitoring has been somewhat ad hoc and mentioned the "something-for-something" philosophy, in which inputs and outputs are most important. Was that philosophy more advanced in the Scottish Office than in the Treasury?
I am not sure whether that is true. As I said, it has been hard to persuade people to produce meaningful measures of outcomes. Although we have been in the outcome business for 10 years, I would not say that we were ahead of Whitehall. However, the Treasury has decided that it can more effectively manage expenditure in England by this method instead of its previous, more combative approach, which it realised was not very fruitful. Although I would like to think that we were better at this procedure in Scotland, I am not entirely convinced about that.
My first point is perhaps a little tongue-in-cheek. If this committee and its new structure is to work properly, should we receive the same level of information as ministers?
I am sure that we are moving towards a great deal more information being made available. Decision making on public expenditure might well become more open to the Scottish people as well as to this committee. If that happens, a way must be found of making things more meaningful for the public. That is not easy, because a lot of the information can be pretty detailed and boring.
I want to tease out some information about the roles of the Executive and the First Minister compared with the role of the Secretary of State for Scotland in your time. He was not only the arbiter between departments but one of the principal negotiators with the Cabinet in Westminster if the Scottish Office wanted to spend more than was granted to it by the Barnett formula, for instance. The secretary of state no longer has that role. Should we think about resurrecting that role in some other form?
What to do?
Currently, the UK Government and the Scottish Executive are of the same political persuasion. If that were not the case in future—which is quite feasible—we would need to examine the arbitration systems between the national Treasury and the local budgetary systems.
That takes us into an interesting area. The convener might not want us to pursue it.
In your submission, you say that the arrangements for financial oversight were diverse because of the huge variety of programmes and services. Were the arrangements too diverse? Should they have been more uniform in their approach to the overall budget?
I do not think so. The committee discussed this last week with Peter Collings who, because he had been the finance head of the national heath service executive before becoming the principal finance officer, knew a lot about the subject.
You say that there was a presumption that the line divisions would take responsibility for the management of the expenditure. Did the fact that the structure is fairly devolved make it harder for the principal finance officer to monitor what was happening?
I drove through the policy that required the line divisions to take responsibility for the management of the expenditure. It seemed crazy for people to be making decisions on where money should be going without taking responsibility for monitoring the outcome or caring about the quality of financial management in the bodies that they were grant aiding. It also seemed important that the people in charge of bodies such as the Scottish Prison Service should take responsibility for managing their resources. If that did not happen, a huge area of influence and authority would be forfeited.
There used to be a board of part-time economic advisers to the secretary of state. Could you elaborate on the role of those advisers and tell us how much input they had?
They were senior professors of economics in the Scottish universities. Each of them had special expertise. I cannot recall when the board was set up and I do not know whether it still exists. The full-time economic advisers, in conjunction with the secretary of state or the minister with particular interest in industry and the economy, would ask the professors about certain topics. People with real expertise would be invited to submit papers and everyone would then join in a discussion on them, or there would be a discussion on the state of the economy. That would give ministers and senior officials the benefit of the best available professional understanding in Scotland.
That seems a valuable exercise.
It was valuable, but it was over and above the work that was being done full time by our economic staff.
A couple of weeks ago, we talked to people from Scottish Power and BP Amoco. They told us about the financial management that exists in big private organisations. The quality and quantity of their financial data, and the way in which they are able to use those data, have been revolutionised by things such as information technology. The way in which they gather, hold and report on financial information, even across different businesses or areas of business, allows them to have a uniform view. You have told us about the diversity of Government expenditure, but do you think that it would be possible for us to have a standardised way of gathering, monitoring and reporting financial information for Government?
The point of the second paragraph of my submission was to imply that that is not possible. On the other hand, we must do the best we can towards that end. In the health service, where a large number of bodies generate the same kind of information while doing the same kind of business, a good system of gathering and monitoring information centrally is needed and I hope that there is one. Similarly, in local government, where there are major difficulties because not all local authorities have the same system, a rapid flow of consistent data would be of great help to the Scottish Executive. One might hope to get that in time, but I do not think that it exists at present.
The Government has certain priorities. In health, mental health has been a priority for a long time, but it has struck me forcibly that, under the current system of budgeting and devolving funds to health boards, there does not seem to have been any significant shift to mental health. There is tension between ring-fencing, top-slicing and hypothecating, and telling boards our priorities, giving them the money and letting them get on with it. I am not convinced that the present system is driving the central agenda forward appropriately. The two examples are mental health and the shift from secondary to primary care, which have been priorities of the previous Government and of this one.
You are being a bit specific.
That is an interesting point, which you should have put to Peter Collings last week—he would probably have been able to address it properly as he was the finance director of the NHS in Scotland before he took up his present job. Although I do not know, I suspect that you are right.
How do you suggest we resolve that general problem?
It is a very general issue. In some respects it is a more serious problem in relation to local government services. If one does not allow local decision making, many of the people who are involved in local government or in health boards will wonder what they are there for.
I have a brief point about the spending process. Your memorandum says that
No. If that had been the case, there would have been no reviews between 1979 and 1997. I think that all Governments since the early 1960s have realised that they must carry out reviews from time to time or inertia will rule and we will end up in the position that Elaine Thomson described, in which things never change. One has to review policies as radically as possible. It is always important that the politicians are interested in the review and have ideas. It is difficult to make headway on the basis of what officials decide among themselves. Officials can think of all sorts of wheezes, but if the politicians are not interested nothing much will happen—after a while officials, too, will lose interest. The big round of reviews that took place in the Westminster Parliament was quite radical. That is probably because it was the Government's first chance to get at the books and see what was what. Governments must try to keep the practice of undertaking reviews going.
I am interested in this issue. What prompted radical reviews between 1983 and 1997? Were they prompted by changes of secretary of state?
I am a bit hazy about dates. The whole Westminster Government would decide from time to time to take a particularly hard look at policies. Also, when certain secretaries of state faced acute dilemmas because of particularly tricky settlements, they would tell officials to think the unthinkable over the summer and return with suggestions. Sometimes, that would produce results. Such reviews would be internal to the Scottish Office.
Were such reviews genuine and thought through or did they represent crisis, panic management?
The tightness of public spending, which has applied for a very long time, is always a spur to thinking hard about things. There needs to be political will for something to be done about that—ingenuity and lateral thinking from politicians is always very welcome.
That concludes questions by members. Sir Russell, we very much appreciate your willingness to give up your time to give us the benefit of your vast experience.
Meeting continued in private until 12:12.