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The next item of business is an initial evidence-taking session in our determining and delivering Scotland's energy future inquiry. I draw members' attention to the late papers that have been circulated.
Jane Morgan will begin. She will give an overview of energy policy in her presentation.
Good morning. As the convener said, "Energy Policy: An Overview" was put on the Scottish Government's website yesterday and sent to the committee then. I realise that members have had a rather short time to read it. I will give members even more of an overview of energy policy than that document does. Obviously, I cannot talk about everything in the document, but I will give a brief context for members' questions. I realise that those questions will go into much more detail than any presentation that we can give.
I see that there are no questions from members at this point. The document to which you referred is called "Energy Policy: An Overview". Is the intention to develop that overview into a more detailed strategy? If so, how will that happen and what is the timescale?
The document's principal purpose is to give an overview—as its name suggests—and to draw together the wide range of different activities to explain how everything fits together. We do not intend to develop it into a specific, detailed, single, energy strategy as such.
I was astonished to read in the document:
Gavin Brown has just outlined the purpose of our inquiry.
I am happy to answer the nuclear question in more detail, but will you clarify your initial point about the main objective?
It concerns me that instead of saying that our main objectives are to ensure that we reduce carbon emissions, provide affordable energy to people throughout Scotland and ensure security of supply—which are universally accepted as main priorities for just about every other country—we say on page 1 of the document that our
I would not underestimate the fact that we make objectives around security of supply, affordable electricity and energy for all very clear in the document. It tries to make clear that we seek to draw together our energy—and in particular our electricity—approach to drive an electricity mix that can enable renewables as a key objective and a vision for how we want to take electricity forward in Scotland.
It does. It suggests that the main objective is to do exactly what it says on the tin. If that main objective is achieved—if we replace nuclear with renewables—by how much will we reduce carbon emissions, for example?
That is a wider question of—
Just give me a ballpark figure.
Our target is to reduce carbon emissions by 80 per cent by 2050. Electricity generation, by definition, has to make a significant contribution.
I know what the figures say, but in replacing nuclear with renewables, by how much are we reducing carbon emissions? Will you give us a ballpark figure?
That depends on an assessment of the life-cycle emissions of nuclear power.
Ballpark figure?
That is not an entirely understood—
Ballpark figure?
I remind the member to put questions through the chair.
I apologise.
One issue that we want to explore further—it is certainly part of our overall assessment—is to understand better the life-cycle carbon emissions of nuclear power, ranging from the mining of uranium to full decommissioning. One key point in the Government's response to the UK Government's consultation on the future of nuclear power is that our assessment of the life-cycle CO2 emissions of nuclear power is significantly greater than most people's. For that reason, we are deeply concerned about the carbon emissions of existing nuclear facilities and any new facilities. That is one of the many reasons why we do not support nuclear in Scotland.
I apologise to Mr Wilson and to you, convener, for not going through the chair. I have just a quick follow-up question.
There is also a detailed question about the costs of nuclear. To make that assessment, we would need to include the full historical costs of the nuclear stations in Scotland. As the member will know, there have been substantial debt write-offs of nuclear stations through the privatisation process and everything else. The full assessment would be difficult to make.
I have a question about nuclear futures. The German coalition Government also wants to withdraw from nuclear generation, although there are differing views in the Christian Democrat party. On the ground that the Germans still have an industrial quotient of gross national product above 25 per cent—ours is roughly half that—that seems to me, having lived there for 30 years, a sensible policy.
Is that to make a nuclear future possible or—
No, to make possible any form of future involving considerable new construction.
It is widely understood and accepted that the technological challenges that face just about any electricity generation mix are considerable. For nuclear technology they are considerable and, in our view, probably insuperable. For renewables technology, challenges and important technological issues will have to be addressed to release the massive renewables potential that we have in Scotland, onshore and especially in our seas.
Like Gavin Brown, I will start with first principles. On opening the document, I had expected to read that the main energy objective was to promote renewables to reduce carbon emissions and that the secondary objective was economic growth. However, I read:
That is what the document says.
The secondary objective given is to maximise economic benefit through the maximisation of energy exports. What is the reasoning behind the adjustment in the target for renewables? I support the new level, but previous Government targets referred to the amount of electricity generated from renewable sources as a proportion of electricity generation in Scotland. The new target refers to renewables as a proportion of electricity demand in Scotland, which is a very different thing. In the debate in the chamber in January, the view of ministers seemed to be that Scotland ought to produce enough electricity for Scotland's needs rather than for export, as happened in the past. What is the reasoning behind the shift from a target in which renewables was given as a proportion of generation to one in which renewables is given as a proportion of demand?
My understanding is that the previous 40 per cent target was for renewables as a proportion of demand. That target was established by the previous Government and the forum for renewable energy development in Scotland. In changing the target to 50 per cent, we have also made a technical change, in that the target is now for gross demand rather than net demand. That means that we have taken into account the losses that occur in transmission and we will aim to meet net demand plus the losses. That is why the target refers to gross consumption. However, the 40 per cent target related to consumption, not generation. The target has been made harder not just by the increase from 40 to 50 per cent, but by adding an amount for the losses.
Essentially, the target is a higher percentage of a higher total.
Yes. To reiterate, the new target is more challenging. It also assumes the intention of maintaining the current level of exports and potentially expanding that further. That is why we have had discussions about grid developments and everything else. It is a very ambitious agenda.
I want to ask about a couple of things that came up at yesterday's conference—several committee members attended it—and which are closely related to points in the energy policy overview that has been presented to us this morning.
Ministers will set out a lot of that in the renewable energy framework, which will come out at the end of the month, so I am a little cautious about giving you precise figures now. Nevertheless, I can say that we recognise those figures. We will present a range of figures for onshore wind power generation, which will include that figure of 50 per cent of 14GW. We have already said that we are aiming to produce 8GW from onshore wind power by 2020. We do not expect hydro power to grow considerably bigger than it is now, so you can expect that we might be talking about 5GW to 7GW.
Lastly, I seek guidance on a matter for which I looked in vain in the overview document. At yesterday's conference, Jim Mather said that he and the First Minister had pressed the UK Government to consider a windfall tax on energy companies. Are the consequences of that being built into the consideration of Scotland's future energy economy and economic opportunities?
The First Minister and Mr Mather have made it clear to the UK Government that a windfall tax should be considered. There are a lot of detailed issues around what a windfall tax could cover and how it would be taken forward. However, it is certainly something that should be on the table and should be considered by the UK Government.
Such a tax could have fiscal impacts on a range of electricity producers, oil producers and distribution companies.
Who it might affect would depend on the detail, which would need to be considered.
The windfall tax is one current issue of debate. The overview document also mentions the discussion about how resources from the oil sector could contribute to the growth of the economy.
That is a good point. It is difficult to assess the significant additional taxation that the Treasury will receive this year as a result of high levels of oil production and, in particular, high oil prices. Obviously the majority of the tax year is yet to come, but it could amount to something of the order of £4 billion to £5 billion in additional taxation—although the price of oil is uncertain, so the number could be different. That is additional money that will be received by the Treasury through the existing taxation system, and the First Minister has pressed for that money to be used in a way that supports the overall energy channels that we have.
Let us be clear. The extra £4 billion to £5 billion of revenue that the UK Treasury will receive this year could be described as a tax on the windfall resulting from the high price of oil. However, you are saying that the First Minister is pressing for a windfall tax in addition to that.
The key thing about the tax on high oil prices is the fact that it is a tax on oil producers. The First Minister has also called for consideration to be given to a new, different tax on electricity and other suppliers.
I very much welcome this energy policy overview and recognise that it is a work in progress. I understand from what you have said that by exploiting Scotland's strength in natural resources we can become a leader in clean energy. I would have thought that, to avoid some of the trenches that are very quickly being dug with regard to some of the existing means of energy generation, it would be a good idea for the committee to take an overview of the matter. How do you think that the energy policy document will develop in light of what is happening in Europe with regard to the Turmes report, which is to be discussed this month and agreed next month by the European Committee on Industry, Research and Energy and opens up considerable prospects for development of offshore wind and marine energy in the North Sea?
We are engaged in many of those debates in Europe but obviously any discussions on policy must happen through and alongside the UK Government. We have certainly been very engaged in discussions on unbundling, which might have an impact on the Scottish electricity industry.
So you want to send a distinct message that, with regard to locating and constructing new methods of energy gathering, many parts of Scotland might develop industries that they have not been able to develop before.
Very much so. The potential for marine energy is greatest along the north and west coasts and in remote areas that will certainly benefit from increased activity. We have conducted—and need to develop further—a strategic environmental assessment on marine energy, which focused on the north and west coasts of Scotland.
I am well aware of that. I would be interested in being kept up to date with developments in Europe, because they might well benefit Scotland's contribution. The Turmes report is only one aspect; the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety Committee is looking at other measures that might well highlight certain issues that the inquiry needs to take on board.
I very much agree. We are happy to provide more detail on our activities in Europe and on what is happening with EU energy policy in general.
So, part of what you have to report on is a new generation that can provide energy security in a different way from how it has been defined before.
I would happily agree.
The reduction in carbon emissions and, in particular, the development of renewable electricity is being hindered by grid connection charges, which will be higher for any developments in the north of Scotland. It could be argued that that is the effect of transport costs. Do the consumers who are furthest away from the supply end pay more because of those additional transport costs?
Two to 3 per cent of a consumer's bill—quite a small proportion of the overall cost—is a result of the transmission charging system. The vast majority of the charge is paid for by the generators. However, as the First Minister and others have pointed out, the signal that that sends out—to the renewable electricity sector and, importantly, with regard to replacement thermal generation—is such that the charge is a disincentive to locate in Scotland compared with other parts of the UK.
Is the 2 to 3 per cent applied equally to consumers throughout the UK?
Yes. It is an average.
So even people in the north of Scotland, where the power comes from, pay the transport cost element. I am thinking of a related scenario, in which the situation is reversed. In the Highlands and Islands, one of our biggest problems is that if we order goods from companies in the south of Scotland or, in particular, in England, massive transport surcharges are added on. People in the north, the islands and the Highlands end up paying massive extra amounts. The companies do not absorb the cost and charge a proportion to their customers in the south. However, it would seem that the reverse does not hold true. We in the north will pay 2 or 3 per cent more for our electricity as a result of transport costs that should fall on the shoulders of those in the south.
The electricity market is considered to be a UK market. I do not want to get too technical, but the way in which the transmission charging system works is that there is a notional centre of demand, which is just north of London. The further away from that one is, the more the generators pay. That is the current system in a nutshell. It is what the First Minister and others have talked about.
It is a double whammy. Not only is the charging system a disincentive for development, jobs and work in the north, but people in the north have to pay an extra 2 or 3 per cent. I presume that people in Europe, including in the UK, pay more for the gas and so on from Russia because it is being taken from Russia, and that Russia, which is supplying the energy, can make a market charge. It strikes me that the grid charging system is totally anomalous and ridiculous, and that it penalises people, especially in the north of Scotland.
We cannot say that consumers in the north of Scotland pay 2 or 3 per cent more—2 or 3 per cent of the bill of consumers in the UK generally is made up of transmission charges.
That includes people in the north, who are next door to where the power is produced. Normally, supply and demand and the market would mean that the folk who were closest to the supply would pay a bit less.
I want to be clear on this point. We will give the committee a note that breaks down the figures. Transmission, which refers to the large-scale movement of electricity around the country, accounts for a small proportion of the overall bill that an electricity consumer pays. Most of the cost relates to generation. There is little differentiation between consumers in respect of transmission system charges. Strictly speaking, it is not a postage stamp system, but it is like that. However, there is a substantial locational incentive to generators. Peterhead's SSE plant pays very substantially more than an identical station in the south-east of England—in fact, such stations are paid to connect to the system. That washes out in the financial benefit to the generator of the location of its electricity station, and in its profit and loss and its decisions. The charge directly to consumers tends to balance out. It is a technical issue on which we will give the committee a note. We are not suggesting that there is a substantial additional charge for transmission use in the north of Scotland, compared with the south-east of England. We must be careful to make that clear.
Thank you. I look forward to receiving your note.
The first stop for essential support for companies in that area is Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Islands Enterprise, which can direct companies to more specific support—for example, in relation to intellectual property and the issues that surround it. Those are the key organisations that work directly with companies—the Scottish Government does not do that directly.
No.
Okay. I am not sure whether there is anything similar. SEGEC is trying to build Scotland's profile in Europe and to forge partnerships, which might be with England or English regions as much as they might be with Norway or Ireland. SEGEC's purpose is not to provide direct support to industry but to help people to work through European mechanisms and funding streams, which usually requires a mixture of partners in industry, academia and Government.
I was not thinking of the ETI; I was thinking about a means of helping people at the post-research stage to develop proposals that have gone through the basics and been accepted, so that we get jobs on the ground. How can we ensure that benefits such as employment go to the yards at Nigg and Arnish and to the Highlands?
I think that the development agencies have tried to establish a pipeline of support for the research and development process, from initial grant funding to prototypes—that includes mechanisms that are operated by the Scottish Government. There is a range of mechanisms, which are not necessarily specific to industry but are generic and support the R and D and deployment process.
It very much falls to HIE and Scottish Enterprise to do more detailed work with companies and to provide mechanisms and advice that companies can tap into. Substantial UK Government support mechanisms are available, and Scottish companies should be encouraged to tap into such mechanisms and maximise the benefits that they can bring. It is right that the enterprise organisations should pursue the points that have been made about economic development—they are actively doing so.
I realise that work is in progress but I am concerned that there will be no overall strategy. In your answer to Dave Thompson you talked about developing the industry in Scotland and about Scottish Enterprise and HIE. However, the enterprise agencies are no longer responsible for skills and development—Christopher Harvie referred to the need for skills. If there is no overall strategy, who will pull together all the strands as the big changes that the witnesses describe take place?
Thank you for giving me the opportunity to correct any misunderstanding that might have arisen. I hope that I did not say that there is no overall strategy. We have increasingly recognised that so many different initiatives must be taken that a single strategy document that tried to draw together everything, with the detail that committee members would rightly expect, would be unwieldy. We propose to produce exactly the sort of clear action plan on renewables development that you would expect us to have, which will draw in wider issues about skills and so on. That raises somewhat different issues, such as the huge number of issues around the oil and gas sector and clean coal technologies. We are trying to achieve exactly what you suggest in relation to joining up activities. I was saying that the document is slightly more modest, just to draw the picture together.
Who will be in charge? What department will take the lead and who will draw all this together? That was not all that clear.
One of the reasons why we are slightly cautious in relation to the renewable energy framework is that we are considering how to draw together those things. There are a number of minister-led and industry-led groups. We are considering how to ensure that everything is fit for purpose to meet the overall challenges that you were right to raise.
I take it that you will have discussions with the construction industry.
Construction is critical to all this, in terms of renewables and everything else. I know that a number of activities are going on, such as discussions between Government and the sector skills councils, to ensure that the processes work well. We have a number of mechanisms for dealing directly with the construction industry. This is one of the issues that we keep under review.
The renewable energy framework will come out as a draft document and there will be a consultation process over a number of months, which we hope will involve our not just waiting for written comments, but engaging actively with the relevant sectors. The construction sector has probably gained most from the development of wind farms in recent years. One of the challenges is to get the benefit into other sectors. The consultation process will be active.
Thank you. I chair the cross-party group on construction. I was interested to hear what dialogue was going on with the industry and what you would be doing in the future.
I do not know whether the committee has heard directly from the chief planner on wider planning skills issues, but we fully recognise the importance of ensuring that planning departments in local authorities have the right people with the right skills and the right degree of recognition that the overall objective is sustainable economic growth. That view is increasingly endorsed by local authorities as well as the Scottish Government, and must be taken into account fully as part of the planning process.
It is worth emphasising that we are also taking steps to be ready to deal with more applications on the marine side by getting involved with our environment colleagues in marine spatial planning, so that we can help people identify where they might develop their devices. With wind development, we suffered from the fact that there was not a high degree of location guidance from the very beginning, although it is now developing. We are trying to take anticipatory measures on the marine side.
It is a pity that we did not have this paper before today. It would have been handy to have had sight of it before yesterday's energy conference at Murrayfield, which several of us attended. It would have helped to inform the discussion that we had.
That is one of those particularly challenging questions that we relish.
That is an interesting answer. I do not know whether Mr Wilson was at yesterday's conference.
I was not.
At the end of it, the 200-odd delegates voted on whether nuclear power should be included in any energy mix for Scotland. Mr Wilson may be surprised—I dare say that the ministers will be surprised—that the vote was in favour of including nuclear power in Scotland's energy mix. The room was chock-full of experts—I am not an expert on the matter by any means. Given the experts' view, is it not a bit remiss that you have not included nuclear energy in your considerations?
For the reasons that the Government has given and which I gave earlier, we think that there is an energy future in an electricity mix in Scotland without nuclear that builds on our huge comparative advantage with renewable energy and on the potential for clean energy sources to provide the electricity supply that we want while we meet our CO2 emissions targets. It is becoming increasingly clear that if the UK Government or any Government wishes to pursue a nuclear policy, a successful nuclear policy—if there is such a thing—must involve a major power station programme. In the UK, for example, Sizewell B was designed to be part of a whole programme of stations, but it ended up being the only station that was built. For that reason, there were considerable cost overruns. If there is to be a successful nuclear policy, a lot of nuclear power stations are needed. The risk is then run of diverting technological activity, skills, research and development, and the push that must take place to progress renewable and clean energy. There is a major opportunity cost to having nuclear as part of a policy. The Government wants to focus on clean energy and renewables, and, as I said, big challenges are involved in doing so. It will be difficult to focus on all those sources of energy at the same time.
I will not follow up on nuclear power, convener. David Wilson has talked about clean energy, but we have not mentioned coal much. I think that an announcement was made last year or about then on the possibility of a new deep mine at Canonbie. I do not know whether anything happened on that, but it is clear that opportunities exist for Scotland in the application of clean coal technology and carbon capture and storage technology. How important is Longannet power station with respect to the energy balance? How important is it that that power station is chosen as the place for developments in clean coal and carbon capture and storage?
I am not aware of the particular example—
I understand that the choice is between Longannet and Kingsnorth.
I was referring to the deep mine.
Does that include sinking new shafts?
We want to consider coal, but I am not proposing what you suggest. There is a new dimension. New investments are being made in opencast and deep mining. As is consistent with what we have said, if we are to consider clean energy and using fossil-fuel supplies to provide a medium or long-term solution or maintaining the position in Scotland, we must look hard at enabling the likes of Longannet, Peterhead and other stations to continue as fossil-fuel stations.
Throughout the UK, interest is growing in the possibility of new deep mines, rather than reopening existing mines. We have had initial discussions with the Coal Authority, which licenses coal operations in the UK, about the possibility of a development in Scotland. One or two possibilities have been mentioned—some previous mines in Fife, for example, present challenges. We are in the early stages of discussions with the Coal Authority.
I am sure that my friends in the National Union of Mineworkers will be delighted to hear that.
A couple of members have supplementary questions, which I ask them to keep brief.
We have discussed renewable energy targets. I thank the Scottish Parliament information centre for clarifying some of the background to past targets. The previous Government originally set targets for generation, but from 2005, the targets were for installed capacity. The target that was described for 2011 is 5GW of installed capacity.
The target is 31 per cent of demand, which we expect to equate to 5GW.
But that is not 31 per cent of installed capacity.
It is 31 per cent of gross consumption.
What percentage of installed capacity will 5GW represent?
I would have to go away and look at that. In renewables, we work against a load factor of about 30 per cent, whereas for thermal generation, one assumes a higher capacity factor. Those two percentages must be taken into account and added together. Unless David Rennie has the answer at his fingertips, we will have to come back to you. We have the total consumption figure.
My principal aim is to be clear that the targets that are set acknowledge and reflect the difference in the load factor.
Yes. [Interruption.]
The percentage of installed capacity for renewables needs to be a good deal more than 31 per cent if renewables are to meet 31 per cent of demand.
A load capacity of 30 per cent is assumed. The load capacity in Scotland tends to be higher than that in England, but 30 per cent is taken to provide a means of making the calculation.
Having a note on that would help.
So if we had a separate Scottish transmission pricing system—
Yes. Mr Thompson asked for the additional cost. I am interested in your including in your response the additional financial benefit to the consumer of being part of the wider transmission arrangements. In other words, there is a small subsidy from the north of Scotland to the south of England on hydro, but is there a vast subsidy from central Scotland to other parts of Britain from nuclear and coal? I want to understand the overall costs and benefits of the shared transmission and distribution arrangements.
In technical terms, I am happy to give it a go, but we will need to spell out clearly what we are doing. We are talking almost of a technical assessment—
Issues such as connection to the grid, charges and capacity will be examined in greater detail in the inquiry. Other people may be better placed to provide the detailed answers that the member seeks. However, any information that officials can provide will assist us in asking the right questions of the right people at the right time.
I understand the point, convener. It is important that the cost to the consumer is part of that report.
Yes.
On that point, we should look not only at the current situation but the future; it is the future that is in jeopardy.
We need to know where we are before we move on to working out where we are going.
In terms of energy consumption, the pie chart shows 44.5 per cent coming from heat and 29.3 per cent—
What page are you referring to?
The pie chart in the slides.
Two issues are involved. The first is new builds for which the building standards are increasingly being ramped up towards that model. The plan is for regular ramping up of those standards. The member may be aware of the recent work in the Sullivan report.
The German example is very interesting and the Energy Saving Trust is looking specifically at the German energy efficiency experience to see what we can learn. In the past, the UK took a slightly different approach from that which was taken in Germany. There is therefore the potential to learn from experience in that country. Perhaps it would be useful for the committee to chat to the Energy Saving Trust.
We have one final question, which I will put. The committee has received a letter from the minister on the situation at Vestas in Campbeltown, which includes a briefing from Scottish Development International. [Interruption.]
I owe the committee an apology. It is my phone that has been ringing. A colleague has now removed it from the room.
The emerging market that we are aware of on the west coast is in marine energy. Much of what we are talking about relates to natural resources—the physical circumstances of waves, tide and wind. Certainly, at present, the industry's interest in offshore wind generation relates very much to the east coast of the UK because of the natural resources that are to be found there. There is nothing in particular that we can do to change that.
I thank David Wilson, David Rennie and Jane Morgan for their attendance this morning. The meeting has highlighted a number of issues. You have agreed to provide the committee with additional information, which will be gratefully received, on the grid and European energy policies. I have no doubt that we will see you again in the next few months.
I am sure that I read somewhere that we have received 70 written submissions to date.
Yes.
I may have missed this, but have we been given all the submissions?
Not yet, but they are publicly available. We have been photocopying them and compiling them in folders for members. I apologise if they have not yet been circulated.
They have not. I was confused, because paper EET/S3/08/16/3 states that the submissions
No. My intention was to circulate all the written submissions before today's meeting, but we have been caught up with production of the rest of the committee papers. I apologise for that; we will get the submissions to you as soon as we can.
The submissions are available on the energy inquiry web pages, so we can see them online.
To save Stephen Imrie photocopying and circulating the submissions, shall we just download them ourselves?
It will be easier for members if you let us circulate them, because we will collate them, arrange them in alphabetical order and put them in a nice folder for you, so that you or your staff do not have to download them. We will get them to you as soon as possible.
There are 70 written submissions, so we are talking about the destruction of large forests. We must be careful when deciding whether we need to print out all the submissions—we can read what is online without producing paper copies. Perhaps it would be better for the clerks to circulate a summary of the proposals. We are talking climate change, as well as many other issues. Perhaps we should try to practise what we preach.
If individual members do not wish to receive paper copies of the submissions, they should let the clerks know, and the clerks will not produce paper copies for them. Some members may prefer to receive paper copies.
Reading too much stuff on a computer screen is the reason why I wear glasses today. I appreciate the point that Mr Gibson makes, but I would much prefer to receive paper copies of the submissions—to save my eyesight, as much as anything else.
I agree. I have not yet found a way of highlighting text on a computer screen.