Labour market update: June 2019
This briefing provides an overview of the Scottish labour market from the latest regional labour market statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Executive Summary
This briefing provides an overview of the Scottish labour market from the latest regional labour market statistics1 and UK labour market statistics2 published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The majority of the data are for Feb-Apr 2019, unless otherwise stated.
Unemployment in Scotland (3.3%) is the second lowest since comparable records began in 1992, despite the number of unemployed women increasing over the quarter.
Employment increased over the quarter to 75.9%, with 26,000 more people in employment. The majority of this increase came from an extra 22,000 women in employment.
The inactivity rate in Scotland fell by 0.5 percentage point to 21.5%. While still above the UK figure, the rate put Scotland seventh highest when compared to the nations and regions of the UK, a fall from fourth in the previous quarter.
The Royal Bank of Scotland Report on Jobs for May 2019 highlights that there was an increase in permanent jobs during May compared to fall for the UK as a whole. However, there was also a decline in labour supply making recruitment more challenging.3
Figure 1 shows the change in unemployment, employment and inactivity rates over the quarter by gender.
The following table shows the unemployment, employment and inactivity rates and the change on the previous quarter.
| Overall | Men | Women | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate (%) | Change over the qtr (% pts) | Rate (%) | Change over the qtr (% pts) | Rate (%) | Change over the qtr (% pts) | |
| Unemployment | 3.3% | -0.1 | 3.6% | -0.5 | 2.9% | +0.3 |
| Employment | 75.9% | +0.6 | 79.3% | +0.3 | 72.7% | +1.0 |
| Economic Inactivity | 21.5% | -0.5 | 17.7% | +0.2 | 25.0% | -1.3 |
What are the labour market measurements?
The International Labour Organisation provides the official definition of labour market statistics.
What is unemployment?
Level: Any individual aged 16 and over without a job who has been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and is available to start work within the next two weeks.
Rate: Number of unemployed individuals as a proportion of the total number of economically active people, which includes both the unemployed and those in work.
What is employment?
Level: Any individual aged 16 and over who is undertaking one hour or more a week of paid work.
Rate: Number of people in employment expressed as a percentage of all people aged 16-64.
What is economic inactivity?
Level: Any individual aged 16 to 64 who is not in employment, has not looked for work in the last four weeks, and/or is unable to start work within the next two weeks.
Rate: Number of people economically inactive expressed as a percentage of all people aged 16-64.
The main reasons for economic inactivity are:
being a student and not having or looking for a job
looking after the family and/or home
being sick (temporary and long-term)
being retired
being discouraged.
You can find out more in formation on labour market statistics in the SPICe Labour market statistics briefing.
Unemployment
The number of unemployed people in Scotland decreased by 3,000 over the quarter and by 27,000 over the year.
The unemployment rate for Scotland is 3.3%, whilst for the UK as a whole it is 3.8%. The the UK level has not been lower since October to December 1974,1 the Scottish rate is the second lowest since comparable record began in 1992 (3.2% in Jan-Mar 2019).
The unemployment rate in Scotland fell over the year at a faster rate than the UK.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 91 | -3 | -27 | 3.3% | -0.1 | -1.0 |
| UK | 1,304 | -34 | -112 | 3.8% | -0.1 | -0.4 |
Looking at unemployment across the UK, the South West of England has the lowest rate at 2.7%, whilst the North East of England has the highest at 5.7%. The rate in Scotland is fifth lowest across the UK.
Unemployment by gender
Over the quarter, the unemployment level decreased by 3,000 in Scotland. The number of unemployed men fell by 8,000 while the number of unemployed women increased by 5,000.
Over the year, the unemployment level fell by 27,000 in Scotland (19,000 men and 8,000 women).
The unemployment rate for women in Scotland increased over the quarter for the first time since the Nov-Jan 2018, whist the rate for men fell for the fourth consecutive quarter.
The unemployment rate for both men and women in Scotland fell over the year. The unemployment rates for men is the lowest since comparable records began in 1992.
The unemployment rate for both men and women is lower in Scotland than the UK.
The unemployment rate for women in the UK fell to a joint-record low of 3.7% in the three months to April 2019. 1
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year Change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Men | 51 | -8 | -19 | 3.6% | -0.5 | -1.3 |
| Women | 40 | +5 | -8 | 2.9% | +0.3 | -0.6 | |
| UK | Men | 719 | -9 | -48 | 4.0% | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| Women | 586 | -25 | -63 | 3.7% | -0.2 | -0.4 |
Figure 3 shows how unemployment rates by gender in Scotland have changed over the past 10 years.
The unemployment rate for men peaked at 9.8% in the Feb-Apr 2010. Since then it has fallen by 6.3 percentage points, and is the lowest since comparable records began in 1992
The unemployment rate for women peaked at 7.9% in Nov-Jan 2012. Since then it has fallen by 4.9 percentage points to the current rate of 2.9%.
Unemployment by age
The unemployment by age data is not seasonally adjusted and is compared with the same quarter in previous years.
The unemployment rates for the 16 to 24 year olds (6.1%) is the lowest since comparable records began in 2002.
The only age group in Scotland that deviates significantly from the UK is 16-24 year olds, at 4.0 percentage points lower that the UK.
| Age group | Scotland | UK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-24 | Rate | 6.1% | 10.1% |
| Year change (% pts) | -2.8 | -0.7 | |
| 25-34 | Rate | 2.9% | 3.2% |
| Year change (% pts) | -0.9 | -0.5 | |
| 35-49 | Rate | 2.2% | 2.7% |
| Year change (% pts) | -0.6 | -0.1 | |
| 50-64 | Rate | 3.1% | 2.8% |
| Year change (% pts) | -0.8 | -0.3 |
Employment
The number of people aged 16 and over in employment in Scotland increase by 26,000 over and by 34,000 over the year.
The rate in Scotland increased over both the quarter and the year.
The current UK employment rate, of 76.1%, is the joint-highest since comparable records began in 1971.1
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 2,702 | +26 | +34 | 75.9% | +0.6 | +0.8 |
| UK | 32,746 | +32 | +357 | 76.1% | 0.0 | +0.5 |
Looking at employment across the UK, the Scottish rate is just below the UK. The South West has the highest rate at 80.2%, whilst North East has the lowest at 70.7%.
Employment by gender
Employment levels and rates are higher for men than for women at both Scottish and UK levels.
Over the quarter the employment level increased by 26,000 in Scotland (4,000 more men and 22,000 more women).
The number of women in employment in Scotland is the highest since comparable records began in 1992.
The rate for women increased at a higher rate that for men across both the quarter and the year in Scotland.
The employment rate for women in Scotland is higher than the UK, whilst it is lower for men.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Men | 1,386 | +4 | +13 | 79.3% | +0.3 | +0.3 |
| Women | 1,316 | +22 | +21 | 72.7% | +1.0 | +1.2 | |
| UK | Men | 17,290 | -27 | +162 | 80.3% | -0.2 | +0.3 |
| Women | 15,456 | +60 | +195 | 72.0% | +0.2 | +0.7 |
Figure 5 shows how employment rates by gender in Scotland have changed over the past 10 years.
The employment rate for women has increased by 6.6 percentage points since Aug-Oct 2012, when it was its lowest in the last 10 years, at 66.1%. It is now the highest rate since comparable records began on 1992.
The men's employment rate has increased by 6.7 percentage points since Feb-Apr 2010, when it was at its lowest in the last 10 years, at 72.7%. However the rate is below the peak of 79.6% in May-Jul 2017.
Employment by age
The employment by age data is not seasonally adjusted and is compared with the same quarter in previous years.
Despite a slight decrease over the year, the employment rate for 50-64 year olds has increased by 12.1 percentage points since 2002.
The employment rate for the 25 to 34 year old age group is the highest since comparable records began in 2002.
The youth employment rate (16-24) and the 50-65 year old age groups deviate from the UK, 5.4 percentage points higher and 3.1 percentage points lower respectively.
| Age group | Scotland | UK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-24 | Rate (%) | 59.4% | 54.0% |
| Year change (% pts) | +3.1 | +0.1 | |
| 25-34 | Rate (%) | 84.8% | 84.5% |
| Year change (% pts) | +2.8 | +1.0 | |
| 35-49 | Rate (%) | 85.1% | 85.4% |
| Year change (% pts) | +0.3 | +0.2 | |
| 50-64 | Rate (%) | 69.5% | 72.6% |
| Year change (% pts) | -1.2 | +0.8 |
Economic inactivity
The number of economically inactive people in Scotland fell over the quarter by 19,000, but was unchanged over the year.
The inactivity rate in Scotland fell over the quarter and was unchanged over the year, whilst for the UK it increased slightly over the quarter and fell over the year.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 739 | -19 | 0 | 21.5% | -0.5 | 0.0 |
| UK | 8,581 | +32 | -87 | 20.8% | +0.1 | -0.3 |
Looking at economic inactivity across the UK, the Scottish rate is above the UK average. Northern Ireland has the highest rate at 26.4%, whilst the South West has the lowest at 17.5%.
Economic inactivity by gender
Economic inactivity rates are higher for women than for men.
Over the quarter, the number of inactive men increased by 4,000, whilst the number of inactive women fell by 22,000.
Over the the year, the number of inactive men increased by 14,000, while the number of inactive women fell by 14,000.
The rate for men increased over both the quarter and the year, while the rate for women fell over both.
The inactivity rates for men and women are higher in Scotland than in the UK overall.
The number of economically active women in the UK as at a record low.1 However in Scotland, the number is above the all time low of 409,000 in Jan-Mar 2015.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Men | 298 | +4 | +14 | 17.7% | +0.2 | +0.8 |
| Women | 441 | -22 | -14 | 25.0% | -1.3 | -0.8 | |
| UK | Men | 3,341 | +51 | -14 | 16.3% | +0.2 | -0.1 |
| Women | 5,240 | -19 | -73 | 25.2% | -0.1 | -0.4 |
Figure 7 shows how inactivity rates by gender in Scotland have changed over the past 10 years.
The inactivity rate for men peaked in Feb-Apr 2010, at 19.2%. Since then it has fallen by 1.5 percentage points. The lowest rate for men in the last 10 years was in Feb-Apr 2009, at 16.1%.
The inactivity rate for women peaked at 29.0% in Aug-Oct 2012. It then fell to 23.5% by Feb-Apr 2015, and now sits 1.5 percentage points higher, at 25.0%.
Economic inactivity by age
This data is not seasonally adjusted and is compared with the same quarter in previous years.
Despite an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the year, the inactivity rate for the 50-64 year olds has fallen by 11.7 percentage points since 2002.
| Age Group | Scotland | UK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-24 | Rate (%) | 36.8% | 39.9% |
| Year change (% pts) | -1.4 | +0.4 | |
| 25-34 | Rate (%) | 12.7% | 12.7% |
| Year change (% pts) | -2.1 | -0.6 | |
| 35-49 | Rate (%) | 12.9% | 12.3% |
| Year change (% pts) | +0.2 | -0.1 | |
| 50-64 | Rate (%) | 28.2% | 25.3% |
| Year change (% pts) | +1.9 | -0.6 |
Claimant Count
The Claimant Count figures presented here are experimental statistics from the ONS for Jobseekers Allowance (JSA), plus Universal Credit claimants who are required to look for work.
Universal Credit combines both in work and out of work benefits. As a result, people may be more likely to be on Universal Credit for very short periods of unemployment compared to JSA. As Universal Credit rolls out, the number of people recorded as being on the Claimant Count is therefore likely to rise.
This is not an official measure of unemployment, but it does provide accurate information on the labour market at a local level.
Scotland and UK comparison
The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for May was unchanged from April but increased by 0.5 percentage points over the year in Scotland.
The Scottish claimant count rate is higher than the UK rate.
| Level ('000) | Month Change ('000) | Year Change ('000) | Rate (%) | Month Change (% pts) | Year Change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 107 | +2 | +19 | 3.0% | 0.0 | +0.5 |
| UK | 1,101 | +23 | +225 | 2.7% | +0.1 | +0.6 |
Constituency data: inactivity
The constituency data for Scotland comes from the Annual Population Survey (APS). The APS datasets are produced quarterly, with each dataset containing 12 months of data. This data is based on residence analysis of the APS.
The latest APS data is for Jan 2018-Dec 2018.
The Orkney Islands have the lowest inactivity rate at 12.5%, whilst Glasgow Kelvin has the highest at 44.2%. Edinburgh Western saw the biggest decrease over the year, whilst Glasgow Kelvin saw the largest increase.
This data is from the resident analysis of the APS, meaning the rate is for those who live in the constituency.
Find out the latest labour market data for your constituency.
Sources
Office for National Statistics. (2019, June 11). Regional labour market statistics in the UK: June 2019. Retrieved from <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/regionallabourmarketstatisticsintheukjune2019" target="_blank">https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/regionallabourmarketstatisticsintheukjune2019</a> [accessed 11 June 2019]
Office for National Statistics. (2019, June 11). UK labour market: June 2019. Retrieved from <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/uklabourmarketstatisticsjune2019" target="_blank">https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/uklabourmarketstatisticsjune2019</a> [accessed 11 June 2019]
Royal Bank of Scotland. (2019, June 7). Royal Bank of Scotland Report on Jobs. Retrieved from <a href="https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/23fbc4bf6d0d4c46a9abd1ccec237019" target="_blank">https://www.markiteconomics.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/23fbc4bf6d0d4c46a9abd1ccec237019</a> [accessed 11 June 2019]