Labour Market update: June 2018
This briefing provides an overview of the Scottish labour market from the latest regional labour market statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Executive Summary
This briefing provides an overview of the Scottish labour market from the latest regional labour market statistics1 and UK labour market statistics2 from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The unemployment rate for Scotland is 4.3% while for the UK as a whole it is 4.2%. Over the quarter the unemployment level was unchanged but increased by 9,000 over the years in Scotland. While the number of unemployed women fell by 5,000 the number of unemployed men increased by 13,000 over the year.
The employment rate in Scotland is currently 75.2%. The rate in both Scotland and the UK increased over the quarter and the year, however the increase was slightly higher in Scotland. The rate for men increased over both the quarter and years while it fell over the quarter but increased over the year for women.
The inactivity rate is currently 21.4%. Over both the quarter and the year the inactivity rate saw larger decreases in Scotland than across the UK as a whole. The annual decrease in Scotland is the largest since between Aug-Oct 2012 and Aug-Oct 2013
| Overall | Men | Women | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate (%) | Change over the qtr (% pts) | Rate (%) | Change over the qtr (% pts) | Rate (%) | Change over the qtr (% pts) | |
| Unemployment | 4.3% | 0.0 | 4.8% | +0.1 | 3.7% | -0.1 |
| Employment | 75.2% | +0.4 | 79.1% | +1.0 | 71.4% | -0.1 |
| Economic Inactivity | 21.4% | -0.5 | 16.8% | -1.1 | 25.8% | +0.2 |
What are the labour market measurements?
The International Labour Organisation provides the official definition of labour market statistics.
What is unemployment?
Level: Any individual aged 16 and over without a job who has been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and is available to start work within the next two weeks.
Rate: Number of unemployed individuals as a proportion of the total number of economically active people, which includes both the unemployed and those in work.
What is employment?
Level: Any individual aged 16 and over who is undertaking one hour or more a week of paid work.
Rate: Number of people in employment expressed as a percentage of all people aged 16-64.
What is economic inactivity?
Level: Any individual aged 16 to 64 who is not in employment, has not looked for work in the last four weeks, and is unable to start work within the next two weeks.
Rate: Number of people economically inactive expressed as a percentage of all people aged 16-64.
The main reasons for economic inactivity are:
being a student and not having or looking for a job
looking after the family and/or home
being sick (temporary and long-term)
being retired
being discouraged.
You can find out more in formation on labour market statistics in the SPICe Labour market statistics briefing.
Unemployment
The number of unemployed people in Scotland was unchanged over the quarter but increased by 9,000 over the year.
The unemployment rate for Scotland is 4.3% while for the UK as a whole it is 4.2%
The rate in Scotland increased over the year while the rate in the UK fell by 0.4 percentage points.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 118 | 0 | +9 | 4.3% | 0.0 | +0.3 |
| UK | 1,416 | -38 | -115 | 4.2% | -0.1 | -0.4 |
Looking at unemployment across the UK, Northern Ireland has the lowest rate at 3.3%, while London has the highest at 5.2%.
Unemployment by gender
Over the quarter the unemployment level was unchanged but increased by 9,000 over the year in Scotland. While the number of unemployed women fell by 5,000 the number of unemployed men increased by 13,000 over the year.
The increase in the number of unemployed men over the year is the largest since between Aug-Oct 2009 and Aug-Oct 2010, which was an increase of 23,000.
The rate for women in Scotland fell over the quarter and the year while the rate for men increased over both the quarter and the year.
The unemployment rate for men is higher in Scotland than the UK while the rate is lower for women in Scotland than across the UK.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year Change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Men | 69 | +1 | +13 | 4.8% | +0.1 | +0.9 |
| Women | 49 | -1 | -5 | 3.7% | -0.1 | -0.4 | |
| UK | Men | 767 | +10 | -73 | 4.3% | 0.0 | -0.4 |
| Women | 649 | -47 | -41 | 4.1% | -0.3 | -0.3 |
Unemployment by age
This data is not seasonally adjusted and is compared with the same quarter in previous years.
Despite the increase over the year the youth unemployment rate (16-24) is the second lowest since comparable records began in 2002.
| Age group | Scotland | UK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-24 | Rate | 8.9% | 10.8% |
| Year change (% pts) | +0.1 | -0.7 | |
| 25-34 | Rate | 3.8% | 3.7% |
| Year change (% pts) | +1.2 | -0.6 | |
| 35-49 | Rate | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| Year change (% pts) | 0.0 | -0.3 | |
| 50-64 | Rate | 3.9% | 3.2% |
| Year change (% pts) | +0.1 | -0.1 |
Employment
The number of people aged 16 and over in employment in Scotland decreased by 2,000 over the quarter, the third quarter in a row where the employment level has fallen. However, over the year the employment level has increased by 18,000.
The rate in both Scotland and the UK increased over the quarter and the year, however the increase was slightly higher in Scotland.
The current employment rate in Scotland is the 2nd highest on record since comparable records began in 1992.
While the number of people in employment fell the rate increased. This would suggest that the majority of the decrease came from those aged 65 and over.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 2,642 | -2 | +18 | 75.2% | +0.4 | +1.1 |
| UK | 32,394 | +146 | +440 | 75.6% | +0.3 | +0.8 |
Looking at employment across the UK, the Scottish rate is lower than the UK average. The South West has the highest rate at 79.4%, while Northern Ireland has the lowest at 69.7%.
Employment by gender
Employment levels and rates are higher for men than for women at both the Scottish and UK levels.
The fall in the employment level over the quarter is mainly down to 4,000 women leaving employment, while the number of men in employment increased by 1,000.
The rate for men increased over both the quarter and year while it fell over the quarter but increased over the year for women.
The rate for men in Scotland is lower than the UK while the rate for women in Scotland is higher than in the UK.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Men | 1,361 | +1 | +8 | 79.1% | +1.0 | +1.4 |
| Women | 1,281 | -4 | +10 | 71.4% | -0.1 | +0.8 | |
| UK | Men | 17,135 | +34 | +165 | 80.0% | +0.2 | +0.5 |
| Women | 15,259 | +112 | +275 | 71.3% | +0.4 | +1.1 |
Employment by age
This data is not seasonally adjusted and is compared with the same quarter in previous years.
The employment rate for 50-64 year-olds is the highest since comparable records began in 2002, having increased by 13.3 percentage points since 2002.
The increase over the years for 35-49 year old is the largest since comparable records began in 2002.
The youth employment rate (16-24) is the only age group where the rate deviates significantly from the UK in Scotland, 2.3 percentage points higher than the UK.
| Age group | Scotland | UK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-24 | Rate (%) | 56.3% | 54.0% |
| Year change (% pts) | -0.8 | -0.2 | |
| 25-34 | Rate (%) | 82.0% | 83.6% |
| Year change (% pts) | -0.9 | +0.9 | |
| 35-49 | Rate (%) | 84.8% | 85.2% |
| Year Change (% pts) | +2.4 | +1.2 | |
| 50-64 | Rate (%) | 70.7% | 71.8% |
| Year Change (% pts) | +1.2 | +0.5 |
Economic inactivity
The number of people economically inactive in Scotland fell over the quarter by 16,000 and 47,000 over the year.
Over both the quarter and the year the inactivity rate saw larger decreases in Scotland than across the UK as a whole.
The annual decrease in Scotland is the largest since between Aug-Oct 2012 and Aug-Oct 2013
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 729 | -16 | -47 | 21.4% | -0.5 | -1.3 |
| UK | 8,651 | -72 | -200 | 21.0% | -0.2 | -0.5 |
Looking at economic inactivity across the UK, the Scottish rate is higher than the UK average. Northern Ireland has the highest rate at 27.9%, while the South West has the lowest at 17.8%.
Economic inactivity by gender
Economic inactivity rates are higher for women than for men.
The fall in inactivity in Scotland was due to 19,000 men no longer being inactive while there was a increase of 3,000 more women.
The fall in the inactivity rate for men over the year was the highest since comparable records began in 1992.
The inactivity rate for men and women is higher in Scotland than for the UK.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Men | 280 | -19 | -37 | 16.8% | -1.1 | -2.2 |
| Women | 449 | +3 | -10 | 25.8% | +0.2 | -0.5 | |
| UK | Men | 3,346 | -50 | -23 | 16.3% | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| Women | 5,305 | -22 | -176 | 25.6% | -0.1 | -0.9 |
Economic inactivity by age
This data is not seasonally adjusted and is compared with the same quarter in previous years.
The youth inactivity rate is the highest since comparable records began , having increased 10.5 percentage points since 2002.
The economic inactivity rate for 50-64 year olds is the lowest since comparable records began and has fallen by 9.2 percentage points since 2002.
The fall in the inactivity rate for 35-49 year olds is the largest since comparable records began in 2002.
| Age Group | Scotland | UK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-24 | Rate (%) | 38.2% | 39.5% |
| Year change (% pts) | +0.8 | +0.7 | |
| 25-34 | Rate (%) | 14.8% | 13.2% |
| Year change (% pts) | -0.1 | -0.5 | |
| 35-49 | Rate (%) | 12.7% | 12.4% |
| Year change (% pts) | -2.5 | -0.9 | |
| 50-64 | Rate (%) | 26.4% | 25.9% |
| Year change (% pts) | -1.4 | -0.8 |
Claimant Count
The Claimant Count figures presented here are experimental statistics from the ONS for Jobseekers Allowance, plus Universal Credit claimants who are out of work.
Under Universal Credit, a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under Jobseekers Allowance. As Universal Credit Full Service is rolled out in particular areas, the number of people recorded as being on the Claimant Count is therefore likely to rise.
This is not an official measure of unemployment, but it does provide accurate information on the labour market at a local level.
Scotland and UK comparison
The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for May in Scotland fell over the month but increased over the year at the same rate as the UK.
The Scottish claimant count rate is higher than the UK rate.
| Level | Month Change | Year Change | Rate (%) | Month Change (% pts) | Year Change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 88,900 | -700 | +8,400 | 2.5% | -0.1 | +0.2 |
| UK | 886,200 | -7,700 | +90,100 | 2.1% | -0.1 | +0.2 |
Constituency data: economic inactivity rate
The constituency data for Scotland comes from the Annual Population Survey (APS). The APS datasets are produced quarterly, with each dataset containing 12 months of data. This data is based on residence analysis of the APS.
The latest APS data is for Jan 2016-Dec 2017.
The Orkney Islands have the lowest economic inactivity rate at 11.7%, while Dundee City East has the highest at 36.6%. Glasgow Provan saw the biggest increase over the year, while Inverness and Nairn saw the largest decrease.
Find out the latest labour market data for your constituency.
Guest indicator: workplace jobs by sector
The ONS publish data on total workforce jobs, via nomis. While the employment statistics earlier in the briefing looks at the number of people in employment this data provides information on the number of jobs. The number of jobs is generally higher as there are a number of people who have second jobs.
The latest figures shows that there were 2.75 million workforce jobs in Scotland in March 2018 this has increased from 2.5 million in March 1998 but has fallen slightly from 2.77 million in 2008.
In 2018 "Human health and social work" is the sector with the highest number of workforce jobs in Scotland. This sector has also seen the largest growth in the number of jobs since 1998. Manufacturing has seen by far the biggest decrease in the number of workplace jobs in Scotland between 1998 and 2018.
In 1998 manufacturing accounted for 13.8% of all jobs in Scotland, now it accounts for 6.9%. In 1998 "Human health and social work" jobs accounted for 11.6% of all jobs in Scotland. It is now the sector which accounts for the highest proportion of jobs in Scotland at 14.6%. Despite falling from 15.6% to 13.5% "wholesale and retail trade"is the sector which accounts for the second highest proportion of jobs in Scotland.
Figure 6: Proportion of jobs by sector 1998, 2008 and 2018
Sources
Office for National Statistics. (2018, June 12). Regional labour market statistics in the UK: June 2018. Retrieved from <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/june2018" target="_blank">https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/june2018</a> [accessed 12 June 12]
Office for National Statistics. (2018, June 12). UK labour market statistics: June 2018. Retrieved from <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/uklabourmarketstatisticsjune2018" target="_blank">https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/uklabourmarketstatisticsjune2018</a> [accessed 12 June 2018]