Labour market update: October 2018
This briefing provides an overview of the Scottish labour market from the latest regional labour market statistics from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Executive Summary
This briefing provides an overview of the Scottish labour market from the latest regional labour market statistics1 and UK labour market statistics2 from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Over the quarter the unemployment in Scotland fell by 0.5 percentage points to 3.9%. The employment rate also fell over the quarter by 0.5 percentage points to 74.9%. The inactivity rate saw one of it's largest quarterly increases on record at 0.9%, which was also the highest increase across the nations and regions of the UK, and is now 22.0%.
Women have disproportionately accounted for the decrease in the employment figures and the increase in inactivity. There are 13,000 fewer women in employment compared to the previous quarter while the number of men increased. The number of inactive women has increased by 24,000 while the number of inactive men increased by 6,000.
When looking at the rates the increase in activity over the quarter for women is one of the highest on record.
Figure 1: Change on previous quarter for the Unemployment, employment and inactivity rates by gender in Scotland
| Overall | Men | Women | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate (%) | Change over the qtr (% pts) | Rate (%) | Change over the qtr (% pts) | Rate (%) | Change over the qtr (% pts) | |
| Unemployment | 3.9% | -0.5 | 4.4% | -0.4 | 3.2% | -0.6 |
| Employment | 74.9% | -0.5 | 78.8% | -0.1 | 71.2% | -0.9 |
| Economic Inactivity | 22.0% | +0.9 | 17.4% | +0.4 | 26.4% | +1.4 |
What are the labour market measurements?
The International Labour Organisation provides the official definition of labour market statistics.
What is unemployment?
Level: Any individual aged 16 and over without a job who has been actively seeking work within the last four weeks and is available to start work within the next two weeks.
Rate: Number of unemployed individuals as a proportion of the total number of economically active people, which includes both the unemployed and those in work.
What is employment?
Level: Any individual aged 16 and over who is undertaking one hour or more a week of paid work.
Rate: Number of people in employment expressed as a percentage of all people aged 16-64.
What is economic inactivity?
Level: Any individual aged 16 to 64 who is not in employment, has not looked for work in the last four weeks, and/or is unable to start work within the next two weeks.
Rate: Number of people economically inactive expressed as a percentage of all people aged 16-64.
The main reasons for economic inactivity are:
being a student and not having or looking for a job
looking after the family and/or home
being sick (temporary and long-term)
being retired
being discouraged.
You can find out more in formation on labour market statistics in the SPICe Labour market statistics briefing.
Unemployment
The number of unemployed people in Scotland decreased by 14,000 over the quarter and by 7,000 over the year.
The unemployment rate for Scotland is 3.9%, whilst for the UK as a whole it is 4.0%.
The unemployment rate fell over the quarter at a higher rate than the UK overall. 0.5 percentage point compared to 0.2 .
The Scottish employment rate is the second lowest since comparable record began in 1992.
This is now the seventh consecutive quarter where the unemployment rate in Scotland has been below 5.0%.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 106 | -14 | -7 | 3.9% | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| UK | 1,363 | -47 | -79 | 4.0% | -0.1 | -0.3 |
Looking at unemployment across the UK, the South West has the lowest rate at 2.7%, whilst London has the highest at 4.8%. The rate in Scotland is just below the UK figure.
Unemployment by gender
Over the quarter the unemployment level decreased by 14,000 in Scotland. The number of unemployed women fell by 8,000, and there were 6,000 fewer unemployed men.
Over the year the unemployment level fell by 7,000 in Scotland. The number of unemployed women fell by 3,000, whist the number of unemployed men fell by 5,000.
The unemployment rate for both men and women in Scotland fell over the quarter and the year.
The unemployment rate for both men and women fell at a higher rate than across the UK as a whole.
The unemployment rate for men is higher in Scotland than the UK, whilst the rate is lower for women in Scotland than in the UK.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year Change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Men | 63 | -6 | -5 | 4.4% | -0.4 | -0.3 |
| Women | 43 | -8 | -3 | 3.2% | -0.6 | -0.1 | |
| UK | Men | 733 | -23 | -42 | 4.1% | -0.1 | -0.3 |
| Women | 630 | -24 | -38 | 4.0% | -0.1 | -0.3 |
Figure 3 shows how the unemployment rates by gender in Scotland have changed over the past 10 years.
The unemployment rate for men peaked at 10.0% in Mar-May 2010. Since then it has fallen by 5.5 percentage points. It has increased slightly since its low point of 4.1% in Mar-May 2017.
The unemployment rate for women peaked at 8.2% in Dec-Feb 2012. Since then it has fallen by 5.0 percentage points to the current rate of 3.2%.
Unemployment by age
This data is not seasonally adjusted and is compared with the same quarter in previous years.
The youth unemployment rate is the lowest since comparable record began in 2001.
The unemployment rate for 35 to 49 year olds (2.6%) is the lowest since comparable records began in 2002.
16-24 year olds are the only age group in Scotland that deviates significantly from the UK at 2.5 percentage point lower that the UK.
| Age group | Scotland | UK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-24 | Rate | 9.6% | 12.1% |
| Year change (% pts) | -1.0 | -1.2 | |
| 25-34 | Rate | 3.4% | 3.7% |
| Year change (% pts) | -0.4 | 0.0 | |
| 35-49 | Rate | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| Year change (% pts) | -0.2 | -0.2 | |
| 50-64 | Rate | 3.7% | 3.0% |
| Year change (% pts) | +0.5 | 0.0 |
Employment
The number of people aged 16 and over in employment in Scotland fell by 11,000 over the quarter, and by 20,000 over the year.
The rate in Scotland fell at a higher rate than the UK, 0.5 percentage points compared to 0.1. The rate also fell over the year in Scotland while increasing in the UK overall.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 2,635 | -11 | -20 | 74.9% | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| -0.UK | 32,394 | -5 | +289 | 75.5% | -0.1 | +0.4 |
Looking at employment across the UK, the Scottish rate is lower than the UK average. The South West has the highest rate at 79.1%, whilst Northern Ireland has the lowest at 69.2%.
Employment by gender
Employment levels and rates are higher for men than for women at both the Scottish and UK levels.
Over the quarter, the fall in the employment level mainly came from there being 8,000 fewer men in employment, whilst the number of women was unchanged.
The annual change in the the employment level for men is the biggest fall since 2010, specifically between Aug-Oct 2009 and Aug-Oct 2010, where it fell by 39,000.
The rate for men fell over both the quarter and the year, whilst the rate for women increased over the quarter but fell over the year.
The rate for men in Scotland is lower than the UK, whilst the rate for women in Scotland is higher than in the UK.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Men | 1,353 | -8 | -24 | 78.7% | -0.4 | -0.9 |
| Women | 1,281 | 0 | -16 | 71.5% | +0.1 | -0.7 | |
| UK | Men | 17,165 | +30 | +145 | 80.1% | +0.1 | +0.3 |
| Women | 15,232 | -28 | +117 | 71.0% | -0.3 | +0.2 |
Figure 4 shows how the unemployment rates by gender in Scotland have changed over the past 10 years.
The employment rate for women has increased by 5.3 percentage points since Aug-Sep 2012, when it was its lowest in the last 10 years, at 66.2%. It is, however, slightly below its peak of 72.4% in Feb-Apr 2015.
The men's employment rate has increased by 6.1 percentage points since Feb-Apr 2010, when it was its lowest in the last 10 years, at 72.7%. However, the rate is still slightly below the rate in May-Jul 2017 , when it was above 79.6%.
Employment by age
This data is not seasonally adjusted and is compared with the same quarter in previous years.
The employment rate for the 35-49 year old age group is the highest since comparable records began in 2002.
Despite a slight decrease, the employment rate for 50-64 year olds has increased by 12.3 percentage points since 2002.The youth employment rate (16-24) saw one of its biggest decreases since comparable records began in 2002, falling by 5.5 percentage points over the years.
| Age group | Scotland | UK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-24 | Rate (%) | 56.2% | 54.7% |
| Year change (% pts) | -5.5 | -0.2 | |
| 25-34 | Rate (%) | 83.6% | 83.2% |
| Year change (% pts) | -0.2 | -0.6 | |
| 35-49 | Rate (%) | 85.6% | 85.0% |
| Year change (% pts) | +1.8 | +0.4 | |
| 50-64 | Rate (%) | 70.4% | 71.8% |
| Year change (% pts) | -1.1 | +0.7 |
Economic inactivity
The number of people economically inactive in Scotland increased over the quarter by 9,000 and 16,000 over the year.
Over both the quarter and the year the inactivity rate increased in Scotland, whilst it increased across the UK as a whole during the quarter but was unchanged over the year.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 738 | +9 | +16 | 21.7% | +0.3 | +0.5 |
| UK | 8,759 | +108 | +16 | 21.2% | +0.3 | 0.0 |
Looking at economic inactivity across the UK, the Scottish rate is slightly higher than the UK average. Northern Ireland has the highest rate at 27.7%, whilst the South West has the lowest at 18.6%.1
Economic inactivity by gender
Economic inactivity rates are higher for women than for men.
Over the quarter the number of inactive men increased by 9,000, whilst the number of inactive women was unchanged.
Over the year the increase in the inactivity level mainly came from an extra 11,000 inactive women whilst the number of inactive men increased by 5,000.
The inactivity rate for men is higher in Scotland than the UK, whilst the rate for women is lower than that for the UK overall.
| Level ('000) | Quarter change ('000) | Year change ('000) | Rate (%) | Quarter change (% pts) | Year change (% pts) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | Men | 289 | +9 | +5 | 17.4% | +0.5 | +0.4 |
| Women | 449 | 0 | +11 | 25.8% | 0.0 | +0.7 | |
| UK | Men | 3,381 | +35 | +17 | 16.5% | +0.2 | 0.0 |
| Women | 5,378 | +74 | -1 | 25.9% | +0.3 | 0.0 |
Figure 6 shows how the inactivity rates by gender in Scotland have changed over the past 10 years.
Since the inactivity rate for men peaked in Feb-Apr 2010, at 19.2%, the rate has fallen by 1.8 percentage points to 17.4%. However it is above its lowest rate of 16.6% in Nov-Jan 2016.The rate for women has fallen by 3.1 percentage points since Aug-Sep 2012, when it has at its highest in the last 10 years. The rate is currently 2.1 percentage points above its lowest point of 23.7% in Feb-Apr 2015.
Economic inactivity by age
This data is not seasonally adjusted and is compared with the same quarter in previous years.
The youth inactivity rate is the highest since comparable records began, having increased 10.6 percentage points since 2002.
Despite a slight rise over the year, the inactivity rate for the 50-64 year old age group has fallen by 11.9 percentage points since 2002.
The inactivity rate for the 35-49 year old age group is the lowest since comparable records began in 2002.
| Age Group | Scotland | UK | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16-24 | Rate (%) | 37.0% | 37.9% |
| Year change (% pts) | +5.1 | +0.7 | |
| 25-34 | Rate (%) | 13.3% | 13.4% |
| Year change (% pts) | -0.2 | +0.4 | |
| 35-49 | Rate (%) | 12.3% | 12.7% |
| Year change (% pts) | -1.8 | -0.2 | |
| 50-64 | Rate (%) | 26.9% | 26.1% |
| Year change (% pts) | +0.9 | -0.4 |
Claimant Count
The Claimant Count figures presented here are experimental statistics from the ONS for Jobseekers Allowance, plus Universal Credit claimants who are out of work.
Under Universal Credit, a broader span of claimants are required to look for work than under Jobseekers Allowance. As Universal Credit Full Service is rolled out in particular areas, the number of people recorded as being on the Claimant Count is therefore likely to rise.
This is not an official measure of unemployment, but it does provide accurate information on the labour market at a local level.
Scotland and UK comparison
The seasonally adjusted claimant count rate for August in Scotland was increased by 0.1 percentage point over the month whilst the UK was unchanged.
The Scottish claimant count rate is higher than the UK rate.
| Level | Month Change | Year Change | Rate (%) | Month Change (% pts) | Year Change (% pts) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotland | 93,400 | +1,100 | +13,300 | 2.7% | +0.1 | +0.4 |
| UK | 918,800 | +8,700 | +118,500 | 2.2% | 0.0 | +0.3 |
Constituency data: inactivity rate
The constituency data for Scotland comes from the Annual Population Survey (APS). The APS datasets are produced quarterly, with each dataset containing 12 months of data. This data is based on residence analysis of the APS.
The latest APS data is for Jan Apr 2017-Mar 2018.
Glasgow Maryhill and Springburn has the highest inactivity rate at 39.6%, whilst the Orkney Islands has the lowest at 9.7%. Edinburgh Central saw the biggest increase over the year, whilst Glasgow Cathcart saw the largest decrease.
This data is from the resident analysis of the APS, meaning the rate is for those who live in the constituency.
Find out the latest labour market data for your constituency.
Sources
Office for National Statistics. (2018, October 16). Regional labour market statistics in the UK: October 2018. Retrieved from <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/october2018" target="_blank">https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/regionallabourmarket/october2018</a> [accessed 18 October 2018]
Office for National Statistics. (2018, October 16). UK labour market: October 2018. Retrieved from <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/uklabourmarketstatisticsoct2018" target="_blank">https://www.ons.gov.uk/releases/uklabourmarketstatisticsoct2018</a> [accessed 16 October 2018]