Chamber and committees

The results of the current COVID modelling from a range of sources is available in the latest weekly Scottish Government report ( https://www.gov.scot/collections/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-the-epidemic/ ). In the issue published on 13th January we noted that on 5 January 2022, 91.1% of all PCR tests from Pillar 2 Lighthouse Labs had the S-gene target failure, used as a proxy for Omicron cases. Therefore SG have stopped producing estimates of doubling times of the Omicron variant.

The modelling the epidemic has been published continuously since May 2020 and provides modelling outputs on the current epidemic in Scotland, based on a range of methods. Results of Scottish Government modelling, as well as those of the modelling groups which feed into the SAGE consensus, are provided in these research findings. We apply a variety of analytical methods in order to understand changes in behaviour which could lead to altered transmission rates. For example, we use the Scottish Contact Survey (SCS) to learn about how people’s contact patterns have changed. The findings from the SCS are then used to help us understand the patterns of contacts and informs the current modelling to indicate the likely number of cases in the medium term (the next 2-6 weeks). We included the medium term projection of the number of infections in the most recent weekly modelling the epidemic report of the current modelling ( https://www.gov.scot/collections/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-the-epidemic/ ).

I refer the member to the answer to question S6W-03606 on 23 December 2021. All answers to written Parliamentary Questions are available on the Parliament's website, the search facility for which can be found at https://www.parliament.scot/chamber-and-committees/written-questions-and-answers

Hospitals balance the provision of beds against a number of factors such as staffing levels and anticipated demand to enable them to provide a safe and effective service to patients. Whilst overall workforce numbers in the NHS have never been higher, increased demand for health and social care services is creating significant workforce capacity challenges.

Recently, capacity pressures have been exacerbated by Omicron-related absences. In the week ending 11 January, health boards reported a 31% increase in coronavirus absence compared with the previous week. On average, 7,174 NHS staff were absent per day for reasons related to Coronavirus, or around 4.0% of the NHS workforce.

We continue to work with NHS Boards and their partners to put in place a range of initiatives to maximise capacity. For example, on the 11 November I announced measures to support people with Covid to stay safely at home and free up hospital beds, including £500,000 to fund 25,000 remote monitoring kits, and a dedicated team which will support the early identification of patients who would benefit from antivirals treatments and get these started as soon as possible.

I am assured that NHS boards have opened all available staffed beds.

Our approach to information governance underpins all government business, including our ongoing response to the handling of the Covid-19 pandemic. The Scottish Government Information Management Strategy and Records Management Plan clearly set out the Scottish Governments approach to the preservation of information, in line with the requirements set out in the Public Records (Scotland) Act 2011.

• For further information refer to the Scottish Government Information Management Strategy
• For further information refer to the Scottish Government Corporate Records Management Plan
• For further information refer to the NRS Public Records [Scotland] Act 2011

The COVID-19 statistical report which is published weekly includes a section for COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalisations, and Deaths by Vaccine Status. These can be found at this link. https://publichealthscotland.scot/publications/show-all-releases?id=20580

This reports on the total number of COVID-19 cases, COVID-19 related acute hospital admissions and confirmed COVID-19 deaths by their vaccination status and covers the period from December 2020 to present.

The eligibility criteria for direct access to new COVID-19 treatments was developed by an independent expert working group commissioned by the UK Department of Health and Social Care and is based on detailed clinical evidence. The criteria are set out in a UK-wide clinical commissioning policy . The policy targets those higher risk individuals who have the potential to both be least likely to generate a material immune response to vaccines and be at highest risk of disease progression, hospitalisation and death.

From 22 December 2021, adults and children (aged 12 years and above) are eligible to be assessed for their suitability for new COVID-19 treatments if they:

• have received a positive PCR test for COVID-19 in the last five days; and
• have symptoms of COVID-19 that started in the previous five days; and
• are associated with one of the patient groups considered at high risk from coronavirus and with a clinical condition prioritised for treatment.

Further information is available on NHS Inform .

In addition to the direct access arrangements described above for the most vulnerable, coronavirus oral antiviral treatments are being evaluated through a UK-wide study called PANORAMIC, run by the University of Oxford.

The outcomes from the study will enable the NHS to fully understand how best to make use of these treatments in the future.

Our approach to managing the Covid-19 pandemic has been underpinned by our Framework for Decision Making since its publication in April 2020. The Framework set out the key principles that guide our decision-making in responding to and managing the four key harms of Covid-19. These four harms are distinct but inter-related and comprise the direct health impacts of Covid-19; non-Covid-19 health harms; societal impacts; and economic impacts.

Covid-19 is first and foremost a public health crisis, and the use of legislative powers has been necessary to in order to limit transmission of the virus and save lives. We know that Covid-19 is not about to suddenly disappear, which is why we are currently undertaking work to consider the necessary adaptations to handle any future phases of the pandemic as proportionately and sustainably as possible.

We are working on a revised Strategic Framework, which will set out how we can adapt to managing the virus in the medium to long-term as it becomes endemic. This includes an update to our strategic intent by moving towards developing the necessary flexibility and resilience in our health and social care systems, wider public services, economy and society to deal with potential new variants of Covid-19 or other public health threats.

The updated Framework will set out how we can live as freely as possible while controlling the harms that the virus can cause, using lessons learned during the epidemic to benefit Scotland going forward. We are consulting with businesses, organisations and others across society as part of this process, and we will bring the update to Parliament in the coming weeks.

Public Health Scotland (PHS) releases a quarterly publication presenting statistics on the number of patients waiting for one of the eight key diagnostic tests, which are covered by the national six-week standard. Further information on these tests and the latest available statistics up to the 30 th September 2021 can be found here:

Diagnostic waiting times - Waits for key diagnostic tests 30 November 2021 - NHS waiting times - diagnostics - Publications - Public Health Scotland

In addition, PHS collects data on patients waiting for six other tests not covered by the national six-week standard, including Echocardiography. However, these data are not routinely quality assured and completeness may vary by Board. Verified data for patients waiting for an Echocardiogram is therefore not available centrally.

The Inquiry must, and will, be given the resources necessary to discharge its task. It will be fully funded by the Scottish Government. Costs are to be determined by how the Inquiry is run by the independent Chair. For that reason, as with other inquiries, we have not set a fixed budget for the Inquiry.

The Inquiries Act 2005 requires the Chair to avoid any unnecessary cost, whether to public funds or to witnesses or others.

The report Towards a Scotland that cares , which proposes the new National Outcome on Care for the National Performance Framework, will be fully considered as part of the Review of the National Performance Framework that will commence this year. As the National Outcomes are cross-cutting, this will ensure that the report’s findings can be considered holistically across the full range of outcomes that impact on care. This addresses the report’s recommendation that the Scottish Government further consults on the proposals, as blueprints, outlined in the report during the upcoming public engagement on the NPF.

I refer the member to the answer to question S6F-00531 on 2 December 2021 which is available on the Parliament’s website, the search facility for which can be found at http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/ormain.aspx .

The proposal for a Carers Outcome will be fully considered as part of the upcoming Review of the National Outcomes. Scottish Ministers are required under the Community Empowerment (Scotland) Act (2015) to review the National Outcomes within five years of their previous publication. On 21 September 2021, I confirmed to the Finance and Public Administration Committee that external engagement for the next Review will commence in 2022, with the aim of laying the statutory report in Parliament during the third Parliamentary term in 2023.