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Chamber and committees

Question reference: S6W-32235

  • Asked by: Daniel Johnson, MSP for Edinburgh Southern, Scottish Labour
  • Date lodged: 12 December 2024
  • Current status: Answered by Shona Robison on 9 January 2025

Question

To ask the Scottish Government what methodology it used to calculate the increase of around 1% in real terms to the 2025-26 block grant settlement compared with the latest 2024-25 allocation, as set out in its draft Budget 2025-26, including the (a) figures and (b) sources of figures used in this calculation, and, following that methodology, whether it can calculate the percentage increase to three significant figures.


Answer

All figures are drawn from Table A.02 set out in Annex A of the 2025-26 Budget publication. The around 1% real terms increase figure quoted is in relation to the change in real terms in Resource Barnett Block Grant between the latest 2024-25 figure and the 2025-26 figure. All figures reconcile to the agreed HM Treasury aggregates. HM Treasury aggregates include some non-Barnett elements in the overall total which are excluded from the year on year comparators (these are disclosed elsewhere in the funding position at table A.02 - specifically within the Migrant Surcharge and Other/Budget Cover Transfer lines).The GDP deflator values used in calculating the real terms movement are as published by the Office for National Statistics.

Methodology for calculation.

Figures –.

  • 2024-25 core Barnett settlement is £39,635 million (made up of the £38,202 million total UK Settlement plus £1,433 million of additional consequentials received at UK Budget Statement.
  • The 715 million ringfenced funding has been baselined in 2025-26 so is included in 41141 figure.
  • £41,141 million is the is the core Barnett Settlement for 2025-26.
  • GDP deflator is 1.0239

Calculating the % increase in real terms 2024-25 to 2025-26;

Real terms figures are quoted in 2024-25 process. The GDP deflator is used to put the 2025-26 funding in 2024-25 terms.

41141 / 1.0239 = 40180.68171

You then calculate the % increase by;

(2025-26 funding in 2024-25 real terms – 2024-25 funding) / 2024-25 funding * 100

( 40180.68171 – 39635.254 ) / 39635.254 * 100 = 1.38% increase to 3 significant figures.