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Item 2 is consideration of research proposals. Members have a copy of the paper from the clerks. Are there any comments on the way in which we should commission the research?
I have a comment on recommendation 3 in paragraph 11, which asks the committee to
How do other members feel about that proposal? "May" does not preclude something from being a subject for consideration; neither does "should" mean that it will be. We will have to determine our future work programme at a future point. That is not for discussion today.
To back up what Dave Thompson was saying, I thought that our session on productivity was very useful. To scope out the subject a little bit further, it might be useful to seek further advice from the Scottish Parliament information centre—the research that it has already done was very useful—on whether there are any areas on which it might readily be able to expand, so as to give us more information on which to make a judgment in due course about our future work programme. The case has been well made in the evidence that we have heard that productivity is the missing bit of the jigsaw for further economic growth.
I take it, gentlemen, that you are suggesting that productivity should be the subject of an inquiry in the future. We would hear not just from the STUC about the case studies. Obviously, we would invite the STUC back, but we would also hear from representatives of industry.
I suggest that we consider productivity as a topic for a potential future inquiry, rather than make a decision this morning to go ahead with an inquiry.
We could put it on the list of subjects for consideration for future business. Is that generally agreed?
Yes. I concur with everything that has been said about productivity, which is a weak link in the Scottish economy. It is right for us to put that subject on our list and to look into it further.
Is that view generally shared by the committee?
Do I understand correctly that Mr Brown is referring to the part of the research that will relate to the credit crunch, rather than the wider economic implications of the situation in the housing market, which I suspect will require quite a big piece of work?
For that particular part of the work, it would be quite helpful to get something sooner than mid-June, given that things are moving quickly.
Today, we are getting a report back on the commissioning of research on issues that we are interested in. Mr Brown is suggesting that we seek to accelerate one part of the research, and I understand that SPICe might be willing and able to do that. On that basis, is there agreement that we encourage SPICe to conduct that research a little earlier, so that we can make decisions on our future work programme relative to that?
I would like to go through the recommendations in paragraph 11. I take it that members are quite happy to note the first four bullet points, taking into consideration our suggestion relating to the third one. Are members also happy to consider the last two items in the paper—that is, the material regarding the commissioning of research that appears in the annexes? Are we content to accept that?
The recommendation in paragraph 11 on encouraging export promotion and international trade is helpful.
Okay.
The final bullet point of the recommendations refers to any further issues. If this is not already on the list, I would like to add research on how we capture and measure our economic data. That has been referred to by several experts both at the away day and thereafter. It would be useful to have a good summary of the potential options and why some are better than others, so that we can see whether there is a Scottish consensus on how best to capture and measure economic information.
I understood that the Council of Economic Advisers was also concerned with that. I vaguely recall that its first report mentioned that there was a lack of proper data. As Mr Brown says, the point was also made at our away day. If we are trying to get a handle on what makes the Scottish economy tick—including productivity and international factors—more up-to-date data would be a big benefit.
As David Whitton said and members will recall, George Kerevan, John McLaren and others at the away day talked about the quality of economic statistics collected by the Scottish Government and about what improvements could be made. Following the away day, the convener wrote on the committee's behalf to John Swinney to ask what the Scottish Government was planning to do, because the subject had been mentioned as an early task in the work plan of the Council of Economic Advisers. The cabinet secretary replied that it was a priority and that the council would consider it at an early meeting. I understand that it will be one of the subjects that the council considers when it meets again in February.
Back in the 1970s, the Scottish Council Research Institute did a big project to compile a Scottish input-output table. It modelled the economy almost in three dimensions so that people could see the flows from one sector of the economy to another and the flows in from and out to external bodies. That was great when I was working on North Sea oil, for instance. Nothing of that sophistication has been produced since. It was valuable in showing how the economy would move in one direction and what all the associated links between economic sectors would be. That was all done before personal computers and so on, so one imagines that it should be easier to do now than it was then. Such a model would give us a much more realistic view of the economy and how changes in one sector cause changes in another.
It is a question not just of what we are collecting and how but of the speed of collection. As various people have mentioned when addressing us, there seems to be a time lag in the Scottish statistics, which lag a quarter, two quarters or even further behind the statistics available for the rest of the United Kingdom. That is important, because we need up-to-date information if we want to make proper decisions.
Are members content to allow the clerk to contact the appropriate people bearing in mind the points that members have made? We will have a report back so that we can consider the subject for future work.