Chamber and committees

This is an operational matter for Scottish Enterprise.

I have passed your query on to Steve Dunlop, the Chief Executive, and asked him to respond to you directly.

I refer the member to the answer to question S5W-23401 on 4 June 2019. All answers to written parliamentary questions are available on the Parliament’s website, the search facility for which can be found at http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/28877.aspx .

Scottish Enterprise plans to publish its business plan in mid-June.

As highlighted by the Scottish Fiscal Commission’s latest report, forecasts for future earnings growth in Scotland have improved over the past six months. The SFC attribute this in part to Scotland’s record low unemployment rate and the Scottish Government’s public sector pay policy. On the back of this improved earnings growth, income tax receipt forecasts have also been revised upwards since Budget 2019-20, by a cumulative £490 million across the forecasting period. Earnings growth is an important driver of income tax revenues and that is why this Government continues to support growth in the economy through the actions of the Economic Action Plan and other measures.

The Scottish Fiscal Commission’s’ report [May 2019] shows the latest estimates of losses in income tax revenue due to behavioural change from the 2019-20 policy decision to be £45 million over the period 2019-20 to 2024-25. The same report forecasts the overall revenue gain from the 2019-20 policy change to be £476 million over the same period. Losses from behavioural change are therefore small relative to these gains.

Behavioural change is a consideration for all taxes in all jurisdictions. The Scottish Government takes the matter of behavioural change very seriously. However, the latest forecasts suggest that the tax policy change is not having detrimental effect through lost revenues.

The 2019-20 public sector pay policy strikes the right balance in delivering a fair deal for public sector workers and value for the public purse in terms of affordability and investing in high-quality public services. It continues the Scottish Government’s commitment to lifting the pay cap, provides job security through our commitment to no compulsory redundancies, and tackles income inequality through progressive measures including the real Living Wage, a guaranteed three per cent increase for lower earners – which in practice benefits almost three-quarters of all staff directly covered by the policy – and a capped increase of £1,600 for the highest earners.

The latest forecasts [May 2019] for Scottish income tax are higher in every future year than the previous forecasts [December 2018], in large part due to an improved picture for earnings growth.

The SFC’s reconciliation estimates are still only forecasts, and are therefore subject to significant uncertainty. Any reconciliation risk will only be confirmed once final outturn data from HMRC is available in July 2019 (for 2017-18), and Summer 2020 for 2018-19. The Scottish Government will make a decision as part of each Budget process on how to manage any reconciliation, including through the use of the limited reserve and borrowing powers at its disposal - guided by the principles set out in the MTFS.

Scotland’s Economic Strategy sets out the need to pursue a more balanced form of economic growth, through a greater contribution from investment and net trade, rather than consumption in order to achieve growth that is sustainable in the long-term.

Experimental statistics on the growth of GDP expenditure components in real terms were published within the GDP Quarterly National Accounts for Scottish published on the 1 May 2019. These provide emerging evidence that Scotland’s economy is starting to rebalance, with growth in consumption moderating and growth in exports picking up over the last two years. Business investment has fallen over the past year, a trend also observed in the UK as a whole, and which can be attributed to economic uncertainty surrounding Brexit. The statistics can be accessed at https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/QNA2018Q4 .

This information is not centrally available.

As you will be aware there are a number of reasons why operations can be cancelled including, at the request of the patient and based on clinical reasons. Clearly, if a patient is not clinically able to have an operation, the right course of action is that it doesn’t go ahead.

The decision for a board to postpone an elective procedure is never taken lightly. We continue to work closely with health boards to ensure cancellations are kept to a minimum and that any postponed procedures will be rescheduled at the earliest opportunity.

If a patient has their operation cancelled NHS Boards will aim to rebook them as soon as possible. Clinical urgency always takes precedence.

If a patient’s condition deteriorates whilst waiting for a procedure, the patient may contact their GP who can get in touch with the Consultant in order to discuss their case and consider whether a more urgent appointment might be more appropriate.

The Scottish Government Waiting Times Improvement Plan, launched in October 2018 and backed by more than £850 million, will ensure we further increase capacity, clinical effectiveness and efficiency, and will help implement new models of care that will support the reduction in the number of patient cancellations for non-clinical reasons. We are also working closely with those health boards experiencing the greatest pressures to support immediate and sustainable improvements.

The information requested is not collected or held centrally by the Scottish Government and would require to be obtained from NHS Grampian.