Chamber and committees

Capital receipts are typically around £10 million per annum but can vary depending on the nature of surplus assets to be sold. The recommendations of the Capital Strategy Group will not have any short-term effect on NHS boards as they fully recognise that those receipts already factored into NHS board capital plans will be retained by NHS boards locally.

The most recent edition of Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) provides estimates of Scottish tax receipts from 2004-05 to 2008-09. Between 2007-08 and 2008-09, GERS estimates that, including an illustrative geographical share of North Sea revenue, total Scottish tax revenue increased by £2.8 billion (5.4%). Over the same period UK tax revenue is estimated to have fallen by £14.9 billion (2.7%).

Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2008-09 is available from:

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2010/06/22160331/0.

The data sources and methodology used to estimate the impact of the Calman Commission''s income tax proposals on the Scottish Government''s Budget during the current Spending Review period are set out in the paper Scottish Government Budget: Calman Commission Proposals. The paper is available from the Scottish Parliament Information Centre (Bib. number 51636).

The analysis shows that had the Calman Commission''s income tax proposals been introduced in 2007-08, the Scottish Government''s budget would have been £500 million lower in 2008-09 and £900 million lower in 2009-10 than under the current funding framework.

I refer the member to the answer to question S3W-36226 on 21 September 2010. All answers to written parliamentary questions are available on the Parliament''s website, the search facility for which can be found at http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/Apps2/Business/PQA/Default.aspx.

Estimates of the tax revenue which could have been raised during this period had Scotland been independent are not available.

Each public sector body is responsible for recording their employees'' absence data within their management information systems (MIS). The Scottish Government only has access to its own MIS and not MIS for other public sector bodies, so is unable to provide an overall estimate of absence rates for all public sector employees in Scotland.

Information from the Scottish Government''s MIS, shows that the annual average working days lost (AWDL) by Scottish Government staff has reduced to 7.7 days for the period up to end March 2010.

As well as the official admin data, there are a number of surveys which collect information on sickness absence. However they are not all measuring the same thing as explained below.

The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) carry out an absence management survey of employers. Respondents are asked to provide information on the average number of working days lost per employee per year based on a
228-day working year. Results from the latest survey in March 2009 are provided in Table 1 along with comparisons with the previous year.

Table 1: Average days Lost per Employee per Year, 2008-09

	UK	UK	UK	Scotland
	Public Sector	Private Sector	All	All
2007	9.8	7.2	8.0	9.2
2008	9.7	6.4	7.4	10.1

Source: CIPD Absence Management Survey (March 2009).

Notes:

1. The absence data is for the calendar year, January to December.

2. Results for the public and private sector are only published at UK level.

The Labour Force Survey (LFS) can provide an estimate of public sector absence rates as it collects information on whether respondents were off work due to sickness or injury in the reference week (usually the week before the respondent was interviewed). This is a survey of employees and provides an estimate of the proportion of employees who took at least one day off sick or injured in the reference week can be produced. Table 2 provides estimates from the LFS January to March datasets from 2008 to 2010 (latest available).

Table 2: Sickness Absence Rates* by Sector, Scotland, 2008-2010, not Seasonally Adjusted

	Public Sector	Private Sector	All
2008	3.2%	2.4%	2.6%
2009	2.4%	1.5%	1.8%
2010	2.1%	1.8%	1.9%

Source: Labour Force Survey, January to March.

Note:

1. Employees self-report what sector (public or private) they work in.

*Proportions of employees who were absent from work for at least one day in the reference week.

Please note, the rates from the LFS do not account for the total length of an employee''s sickness absence as the use of the reference week means the LFS can only measure sickness absence lasting for up to seven days.

The Scottish Government measures the business start-up rate as the number of businesses registering for VAT and/or PAYE per 10,000 resident adults.

In 2008, Scotland''s business start-up rate was 38 per 10,000 resident adults compared to a rate of 54 for the UK. Historical VAT registration data dating back to the 1980s shows that the Scottish rate has persistently been below that of the UK. However, there are regional differences in the business start-up rate across the UK and within Scotland, with some areas in Scotland performing well against parts of the UK.

Progress has been made to close the gap with the UK over recent years. Businesses registering for VAT/PAYE in Scotland increased by 15.2% between 2002 and 2008 “ compared to a UK increase of 11.4%. Excluding London, the UK increase was only 7.9% over the period.

There are many factors that have an impact on business start-up rates “ including fiscal and tax policy, regulation, the rate of GDP growth, employment, business confidence and cultural/motivation factors. Many of these are out-with the direct control of the Scottish Government.

For example, the Government Economic Strategy makes clear that the Scottish Government believes in making the case for Scotland to have fuller, and eventually full, responsibility for tax raising and public spending, utilising this to make Scotland the lowest taxed part of the UK, dropping corporation tax significantly below the UK level. Thereby making Scotland a more attractive destination for business in general, but also for business start-ups.

I refer the member to the answer to question S3W-35491 on 2 September 2010. The sustainable level of UK public sector net borrowing, expressed as a percentage of GDP, will vary throughout the economic cycle. However, over the long term, the sustainable level of public sector net borrowing will be determined by a number of factors including the country''s long-term economic performance, the existing stock of public sector debt, and the cost of financing additional borrowing.

All answers to written parliamentary questions are available on the Parliament''s website, the search facility for which can be found at http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/Apps2/Business/PQA/Default.aspx.

I refer the member to the answer to question S3W-35366 on 27 July 2010. The Scottish Government believes UK public sector net borrowing should be returned to a sustainable level at the earliest opportunity. The timeframe over which this should be achieved will depend on the strength and speed of the economic recovery. All tiers of government should therefore be focussed on supporting the recovery and promoting economic growth. This is the most effective means of ensuring that public sector borrowing can be returned to pre crisis levels. In contrast, the austerity measures proposed by the new UK Government risk undermining the recovery and doing further damage to the public finances by cutting public spending too fast and too deeply.

All answers to written parliamentary questions are available on the Parliament''s website, the search facility for which can be found at http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/Apps2/Business/PQA/Default.aspx.

The long-term level of sustainable public sector net borrowing depends on a number of factors including the country''s long-term economic performance, the existing stock of public sector debt, and the cost of financing additional borrowing. It is important to consider all three of these factors when considering fiscal policy and long-term sustainability. For example, net borrowing will vary throughout the economic cycle with borrowing rising in response to economic downturns and subsequently falling once the economy has recovered. Balancing these trends over the economic cycle ensures that the stock of debt remains at a sustainable level. Given the uncertain economic outlook, there is a real risk that the new UK Government''s plans for fiscal consolidation will cut public spending too fast and too deeply. This may undermine the recovery and do further damage to the public finances in the long term.