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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 12 September 2025
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Displaying 2963 contributions

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COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Scotland’s Strategic Framework

Meeting date: 2 September 2021

John Mason

Thank you for that—I shall continue phoning that number, as I have been doing.

I have another question—it is still on vaccination, I suppose. I have a moral dilemma as to whether I should take a third, or booster, vaccine when half the people around the world have not yet had any vaccine. That strikes me as a bit greedy on my part. Where are we with boosters? Should we be holding back a bit so that the rest of the world can get some?

COVID-19 Recovery Committee

Scotland’s Strategic Framework

Meeting date: 2 September 2021

John Mason

Thank you for that answer also.

My third and final point is on a completely different subject. We have heard suggestions from the airline industry and the wider tourism industry that they hope to go back to the same level that they were at pre-pandemic. However, we also have the 26th United Nations climate change conference of the parties—COP26—coming up, and we have climate change concerns. Does the Government feel that we should be aiming to get the airline industry back to 100 per cent of where it was—I think that it is currently at 20 or 25 per cent—or should we be aiming at something in between for the benefit of tackling climate change?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

John Mason

I will ask about an area that has come up before. Are you getting the data that you need, with the quality that you need, from Scottish sources and the UK HM Revenue and Customs?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

John Mason

Presumably, the birth rate will not change very rapidly, but things could change on the immigration side. There is demand from industry for immigration to be allowed for specific sectors, although the UK Government has said that it will not do that. How important would that be? If immigration were suddenly to be allowed, would that make a big difference to the forecasts?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

John Mason

I was interested that page 33 of my copy of your report—I am not sure whether it is the same page 33 for everyone—shows box 3.1, on uncertainty indicators, which I understand are a new measure that you are trying. I was fascinated by that and I wonder whether somebody will explain what that tells us.

10:15  

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Economy

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

John Mason

One of the subjects that we talked about quite a lot with the Scottish Fiscal Commission was inflation. The commission now seems to be following the more recent Bank of England projection of 2.5 per cent, falling from the present 4 per cent. The commission seemed reasonably relaxed about inflation, in that, if we had to pay out more, we would get more in by way of tax and so on. Are you relaxed about inflation, and is it a concern for you and for the budgets?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Scottish Fiscal Commission (Economic and Fiscal Forecasts)

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

John Mason

As inflation has been mentioned a few times already, I do not want to spend a lot of time on it. However, as I understand it, you follow the Bank of England instead of the OBR on this matter, mainly because its forecasts are more recent. If inflation is at 4 per cent just now, how confident are we that it will fall to 2.5 per cent? If pressures such as shortage of labour were to continue in the longer term, would inflation continue to be higher in the longer term, too? Being of a slightly older generation, I remember inflation at 15 per cent, so 4 per cent seems reasonably low to me, but compared with recent years it is relatively high. Do you have any thoughts on that?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Economy

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

John Mason

I appreciate that. It is an important issue. I lived through a time of higher inflation some years ago, and it concerns me very much.

The SFC was also more positive about the long-term scarring effect of Covid. It had thought that the effect would be greater—it thought that the figure would be about 3 per cent of the economy, but it now says that it will be 2 per cent. Do you recognise and agree with those figures?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Economy

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

John Mason

The SFC also made the point about different sectors recovering in different ways.

The SFC was slightly more negative about non-domestic rates. Its forecasts are lower than they were in January, showing that revenue from non-domestic rates will be £27 million lower this year, and £34 million then £48 million lower going forward. Is that inevitable? Is that just a result of Covid?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Economy

Meeting date: 31 August 2021

John Mason

Finally, I want to touch on social security spending. The SFC has forecast that the adult disability payment, which is replacing PIP, is likely to cost some £500 million more. It is warning that, if we put more money into social security, it will need to be balanced out somewhere else in the budget? Is the SFC being overly pessimistic? Do you have the figures in your budgets?