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Displaying 3690 contributions
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 6 June 2023
John Mason
Thank you. That concludes the public part of the meeting.
12:00 Meeting continued in private until 12:21.Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 6 June 2023
John Mason
Thank you very much, Professor Roy. I think that we all have a number of questions. Committee members have around 13 minutes each.
You mentioned the fact that your forecasts and the OBR’s forecasts are somewhat different. You also said that there is more uncertainty than usual at this particular time. Why is there more uncertainty at this time, and why is there a difference on the divergence in earnings growth, in particular, between the Scottish Fiscal Commission and the OBR?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 6 June 2023
John Mason
Traditionally, we have found it hard to match the south-east of England and London, and their earnings have tended to be higher. Therefore, it is surprising to me that we have things the other way round, in a sense, this time.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 6 June 2023
John Mason
Okay. Thank you.
The big figure that was mentioned is the negative income tax reconciliation of around £712 million. Obviously, that has been in the media. How certain are we about that? I seem to remember that, in the past, the forecasts and the actual outturns were quite different from each other, even late on. We will just have to wait until July, I think, when we get the final figures, but is there a possibility that the figure could be very different from £712 million?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 6 June 2023
John Mason
I congratulate the committee and the witnesses for keeping us to time—we have done quite well. Is there anything else that the witnesses wanted to touch on?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 6 June 2023
John Mason
Good morning, and welcome to the 17th meeting in 2023 of the Finance and Public Administration Committee. Under agenda item 1, we will take evidence from the Scottish Fiscal Commission on its economic and fiscal forecasts from May 2023 and the medium-term financial strategy. I welcome to the meeting Professor Graeme Roy, the commission’s chair; Professor Francis Breedon, a commissioner; and John Ireland, the commission’s chief executive.
Before we move to questions, I invite Professor Roy to make an opening statement.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 6 June 2023
John Mason
Mr Ireland, if you want to come in at any point, just jump in—that will be fine.
In December, the Fiscal Commission forecast that tax receipts would be £384 million less than you are now forecasting. Can you explain why that has changed so much since December?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 6 June 2023
John Mason
Yes.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 6 June 2023
John Mason
So, in some ways, that was a one-off because of Covid and turbulence.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 6 June 2023
John Mason
Thank you all for taking part and for your clear answers.
We will have a break and start again at 11 o’clock.
10:53 Meeting suspended.