Chamber and committees

Do you feel that having different types of tax, as opposed to the actual rates, is having an effect on consumer behaviour? Is it easy to find the evidence to suggest that consumer behaviour is being affected by the type of tax rather than by their having to pay more?

Is it easy to tell which sectors of university research and which departments are particularly suffering because of that problem, or is it a general concern?

I follow those developments regularly. I think that you are suggesting that, as things stand, the lack of coherence and there being too much inconsistency is creating a bit of a disincentive for consumers rather than adding the competitive edge that you would like to see, which would make businesses flourish. The Federation of Small Businesses is saying much the same.

Let me turn to Mr Lott. When the committee visited the University of Dundee, as you mentioned in your remarks, we heard a lot of really good things, and we were privileged to see some absolutely groundbreaking research. However, we also heard quite a lot about the difficulties that universities are having in attracting the people they need to attract. In part, that is because of visa issues, for which my party was partly responsible, but it is also because of the situation in some universities whereby it is much more difficult to bring your family.

Is Universities Scotland getting quite a lot of evidence on that? What do you suggest should happen to mitigate that? We desperately need those people in our world-class universities in order to improve the research side of things.

I will pursue issues about tax. I thank the witnesses for their responses to the convener, in which they have set out clearly and forcefully some of the problems and difficulties of the UK tax system and the Scottish tax system. From the available data, how easy is it to work out the efficiency of the revenue take in terms of behavioural change? Can we interpret what the behavioural changes are with the current tax system that we have?

It has been put to the committee previously that there are issues with Scottish universities being unable to lead research projects. That is also partly a Brexit issue, but it has undercut our ability to be at the cutting edge, which is a great pity, because we should be at the cutting edge. It would be helpful if we could get some information on how much that situation is affecting universities, because it is also key to public expenditure.

Mr Lonsdale, I come to your submission. You have already spoken to the convener about different taxes that are coming in. You also say something really interesting:

“The devolution of these”—

meaning taxes—

“to local authorities appears to have been done in a piecemeal fashion”.

You strike up a contrast, saying:

“A kaleidoscope of differing local taxes may help plug gaps in councils’ finances. However, it can add complexity and cost to the operations of businesses and make budgeting trickier”.

This morning, we have been trying to find tax structures that are a bit more efficient. What would you like to happen to ensure that we do not have inconsistency and incoherence across the different types of tax, which is—in your view—knocking consumers?

That is a fair point.

I have one final question. You gave an interesting analysis of the problems within tax structures. To what extent are the UK and Scottish Governments—particularly the UK one—giving enough credence to debates about global taxation, particularly in areas such as environmental policy and tax avoidance? Do we have to be more cognisant of what is happening in such areas?

Which is obviously increasing as a percentage share of the total population.

What I am driving at is the policies that the Scottish Government needs to enact to try to address the big black hole in public finances. Some of that can be done through public sector reform, which you have set out, and some can be done with tax-and-spend policies. However, addressing economic inactivity in the Scottish population is a crucial element of your longer-term forecasts; indeed, it is a major issue. Do you have any indication from your analysis as to the policies that might be most effective in bringing those people back into work?

The nuancing of that will be very important with regard to the policies that might help us in the future. The statistics for the longer term that you have given us are pretty grim, and we need to do all that we can to try to address the issue.

I want to raise one point of clarification. Your report contains a very short piece about the UK Government’s raising of VAT on independent schools. Am I correct in thinking that, if that amount of money were to be positive, it would be spent in England and Wales and that, as a result, there would be Barnett consequentials for Scotland?

Thank you—that was helpful.

I want to turn to what we can try to do about the challenges in the Scottish Government’s finances. In the summary of your budget report, you set out some of the demographic trends, which I have to say are some of the most concerning aspects for the longer run, particularly the issues around economic inactivity in the labour force. Given Claire Murdoch’s point that there is some incompleteness in the labour market survey, does your data give you a good understanding of the behavioural changes in the group of people who are able but are unwilling to work?