The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.
All Official Reports of meetings in the Debating Chamber of the Scottish Parliament.
All Official Reports of public meetings of committees.
Displaying 4778 contributions
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
Thank you very much. I think that that has certainly been taken on board by me and my colleagues.
We have 25 seconds left of the evidence session. It behoves me to thank the representatives of Scotland’s five national performance companies for coming along today. Thank you for your excellent contributions and a really interesting discussion. I look forward to seeing you all again soon.
I call a five-minute break to allow for a changeover of witnesses and a short break for members.
11:00 Meeting suspended.Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
The second item on our agenda today is an evidence session with witnesses from the Office for Budget Responsibility, in relation to the UK context for the forthcoming Scottish budget for 2026-27. I welcome the following witnesses: Tom Josephs, a member of the budget responsibility committee; Laura Gardiner, chief of staff; and Rosie Colthorpe, deputy director for economy. Good morning and welcome to the meeting. I intend to allow about 90 minutes for the evidence session, although that might slip a little, and I invite Mr Josephs to make a short opening statement.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
The SFC would suggest that the OBR has always been a bit too optimistic on productivity. Would that be a fair assessment? I am aware that, as you have reiterated today, you are reducing your productivity forecast.
11:15Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
We have talked about the fact that, 20 years ago, we had one of the lowest debts—if not the lowest—of all the countries in the G7, yet now we have the highest, proportionately. Table 5.10 of your report says that central Government debt is forecast to increase from £105.7 billion in November 2024-25 to £136.6 billion by 2029-30—a whopping increase of around 30 per cent over the next five years—and that the proportion of debt in the UK will ratchet up a little, from 95 to 96 per cent, even though the amount being borrowed will decrease towards the end of the forecast period. Can you talk us through why the interest rates, which represent about £2,000 for every person in the UK per year, will be so high?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
Historically, who has been the most accurate? We have the SFC coming in next week, incidentally.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
Oh, 0.1 per cent—sorry, I thought that you said 1 per cent. So, 0.6 per cent would be £18 billion.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
Thank you.
The increase in employer national insurance contributions has been a big issue over the past year. In its report last year, the OBR predicted that that would have an impact of some 50,000 jobs, but the hospitality sector alone has said that it has cost something like 169,000 jobs. Is that an accurate reflection of the impact on that particular sector, or have there been other things at play, such as the increase in the minimum wage or whatever, that have exacerbated that situation? In other words, having looked at this over the past year, can you tell us what the actual impact from ENICs has been, relative to the overall impact on that sector and the wider economy?
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
There is only one more question from me, because colleagues are keen to come in. As a result of the budget, the Scottish Government will receive an extra £510 million in resource funding during the next four years and an extra £310 million in capital funding over five years. That represents about 0.2 per cent of resource funding and 0.7 per cent of capital funding. The report goes on to say that although that will create a boost in the short term, it will erode very quickly and there will be a small cut in day-to-day spending by 2028-29.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
The budget for that is increasing, despite the Government’s proposals. During the past couple of years, it has increased quite significantly.
Finance and Public Administration Committee
Meeting date: 13 January 2026
Kenneth Gibson
That figure of 1 per cent of GDP would be £30 billion—