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Chamber and committees

Official Report: search what was said in Parliament

The Official Report is a written record of public meetings of the Parliament and committees.  

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Dates of parliamentary sessions
  1. Session 1: 12 May 1999 to 31 March 2003
  2. Session 2: 7 May 2003 to 2 April 2007
  3. Session 3: 9 May 2007 to 22 March 2011
  4. Session 4: 11 May 2011 to 23 March 2016
  5. Session 5: 12 May 2016 to 4 May 2021
  6. Current session: 13 May 2021 to 7 September 2025
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Displaying 3573 contributions

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Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

Let us be a bit more optimistic than that.

Michelle Thomson is next.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

It is 2-1 on, rather than 2-1 against, so to speak.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you for that. I will bring in committee members who want to ask questions.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

I am sure that colleagues will want to press you on that. I am just firing out questions on all the different areas that we want to cover. There is so much to cover and there are so many issues to raise.

I will raise another important issue. You predict a £417 million shortfall in income tax by 2026-27. How much, over and above United Kingdom productivity, must the Scottish economy grow in order to negate that figure, so that we do not end up reaching it?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

I will ask a final question before I bring in my colleagues around the table. At paragraph 42 of your report, you say:

“Over the next five years we expect capital funding to fall in both cash and inflation adjusted terms, primarily because of reduced UK Government funding.”

What are the implications of that on Scotland’s borrowing limit and its ability to take forward capital projects?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

As a committee, we are trying to cut through some of the politics—it is not exactly easy—to try to get as much of a consensual approach as possible. I am keen to get more information from you on the legendary £620 million, which is mentioned in annex A of the budget document. How we get to the figure of £620 million and how likely it is that that money will be delivered is not really spelled out in precise terms. The Scottish Fiscal Commission has said that it thinks that it is reasonable to assume will be delivered, but there is a difference between a reasonable assumption and the money actually arriving. That would have implications. Perhaps Graeme Roy can have first go at that and then David Eiser could come in. Daniel Johnson wants to come in with a related question after that.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

Do not all rush. Eeny, meeny, miny, moe. Yes—Mr Ireland.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

Thank you. I will start by asking about the £620 million, which you ended on. You said that you have some doubts about whether that £620 million will arrive in the Scottish Government’s coffers. In your report, you refer to annex A of the budget document as detailing that, but I wonder whether you could go through what the sources are and what the likelihood is of that £620 million coming to the Scottish Government.

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 14 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

I was just wanting some clarification, so thank you for that.

You are predicting that, by 2024-25, there will be a £764 million shortfall in social security spending. Looking at that figure, I think that it is obvious that some measures are fixed and will remain in the budget, but surely the idea behind some of the measures that are being introduced to try and drive down levels of poverty is to reduce the number of people who are eligible and who are claiming benefits. Has any of that been taken into account in assessing the figures?

Finance and Public Administration Committee

Budget Scrutiny 2022-23

Meeting date: 7 December 2021

Kenneth Gibson

No matter whether we move away from or keep focusing on the numbers, the IFS has still talked a lot about fairness, stagnating incomes and lack of growth and productivity. What could or should the chancellor have done differently in October, and what lessons are there for Scotland, given that our budget process begins on Thursday?