Chamber and committees

From expert public health analysis, we know that we must do all that we can to stem the rise in cases and reduce the pressure on the national health service. Vaccination certificates have a role to play as part of the wider package of measures, as they add a further layer of protection in certain higher-risk settings.

We propose a very limited scheme to allow businesses to remain open and prevent further restrictions as we head into autumn and winter. The measures that we introduce must be effective, and they must equally be practical and capable of being delivered. We will work with all the relevant affected sectors in a constructive way to ensure that we implement the decision that the Parliament has taken in principle: that it wants to see a vaccination certification scheme in place.

I will, in a second.

That link has weakened but has not been entirely broken. With our national health service under immense pressure as we catch up with delayed treatment and care, we need to reduce the number of people who are in hospital with Covid-related issues.

I give way to Mr Rennie.

The Government has today published a paper that sets out the details of the scheme and the approach that we intend to take. Mr Fraser is a member of the COVID-19 Recovery Committee and knows that there is a constantly emerging evidence base on all Covid-related matters. He also knows that Parliament will have to consider Covid-related regulations in addition to the decisions that it is invited to take today.

In those circumstances, I believe that it is necessary and appropriate for us not to return to the restrictions of the past but to take further proportionate, effective and targeted action that, when possible, minimises the harm that restrictions cause to businesses, young people’s education and our overall wellbeing.

I have a lot of detail that I want to get on the record today, if Mr Kerr will forgive me.

As with all Covid measures, certification has provoked controversy and debate. I encourage Parliament to consider the clinical justification for a vaccine certification scheme. There is clear clinical evidence that double vaccination significantly reduces the likelihood that a person will get Covid-19. There is also clear clinical evidence that certain settings are associated with the risk of spikes in infections. We know about the risks of settings where large numbers gather or where people spend time close together, particularly indoors. We also know that activity associated with very large events will pose risks. We saw, for example, a marked spike around the Euro 2020 tournament. Therefore ensuring that only those who are double vaccinated attend those higher-risk venues and events can directly reduce the risk of transmission in such settings.

I invite Mr Hoy to follow through the logic of the argument that he has already put to the Parliament. He has himself acknowledged that regulations and restrictions have been removed when the situation has improved. It is exactly the same here. We are saying that the certification passports will in place for a period up until the end of February 2022—but they would automatically expire at that moment—because we face the challenge of autumn and winter on the very high threshold of cases that exists today, which did not exist at previous stages in the pandemic.

I think that Mr Whittle was on his feet first, so I will give way to him.

I will move on to some of those details for the benefit of Mr Whittle. We want the vaccine certification process to be as simple as possible. There are just a few steps involved. From 30 September, people will be able to use the NHS Scotland Covid status app, which also has a QR code. Anyone who is unable to use the app will be able to request a secure, uneditable paper record of vaccination. That will replace the current interim solution for accessing records of vaccination.

Staff in the affected venues will be able to download the NHS Scotland Covid check verifier app to a smartphone or device.

I will come on to that in due course.

We accept, of course, that the extent of protection against transmission from our vaccines is certainly lower now with delta than with the previous dominant variant. It does not eliminate the risk, but it is likely that it does reduce the risk—[Interruption.] I am going to have to make some more progress and get this on the record.

So, any certification scheme cannot be based on a guarantee of no transmission. It is about allowing some of our higher-risk settings to operate more safely when the potential alternative would be closure. Furthermore, it will help to protect those who are more vulnerable, such as those who either cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons, or who, because of underlying medical conditions, do not respond effectively to the vaccine.

In addition, we believe that certification will encourage a proportion of the eligible population who remain unvaccinated to get vaccinated. We have seen that in other jurisdictions.

Of course, as with any Covid measure, we should not use it for a moment longer than it is needed. Regulations will be reviewed against the policy’s intention to reduce transmission and boost vaccination take-up, and they will be subject to parliamentary scrutiny. They will be reviewed every three weeks. Any certification regulations will expire on 28 February 2022, as with all other Covid measures under the Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Requirements) (Scotland) Regulations 2021. It would require a further decision by this Parliament to extend them further.

I now turn to the details of the scheme itself. Yesterday, we published in the Scottish Parliament information centre a paper setting out the rationale for domestic certification and how we expect it will work. In that paper, we indicated our intention to launch the scheme on 1 October. We accept that that is only a few weeks from now, but, if it is to be effective in the current fragile context, we believe that we need to take rapid action.

We do not believe that domestic vaccine certification should ever be a requirement for any key services or in settings where people have no choice over attendance. We continue to hold very firmly to that position.

As the First Minister set out in her statement to Parliament last week, we propose that vaccination certification be introduced once all adults have had the opportunity to be fully vaccinated and for the following events and venues: nightclubs and analogous settings; sexual entertainment venues; unseated indoor live events with more than 500 people in the audience; unseated outdoor live events with more than 4,000 people in the audience; and any event that has more than 10,000 people in attendance.

Members rose—

In the arrangements that have prevailed so far, there has been no necessity to distinguish between nightclubs and pubs and hospitality venues that may open later in the evening and into the early hours of the morning.

In order to avoid market distortion, the circumstances that we face require us to more precisely define the distinction between nightclubs and those venues that could appear similar to nightclubs but have a different purpose. That is the subject of further discussion with the night-time industries sector that will enable us to come to conclusions that will be set out in the regulations.

Throughout the Covid pandemic, the Scottish Government has taken actions that are proportionate to the nature and the circumstances of the challenges that we have faced. It is for that reason that we have brought forward for debate our proposal to introduce a mandatory domestic vaccine certification scheme for a limited number of events.

The situation in which we find ourselves is currently fragile. Despite the vaccine, we have seen over the past fortnight that the number of weekly cases has increased from 26,167 to 44,198, the number of people in hospital with Covid has increased from 391 to 883 and the number in intensive care has increased from 44 to 82. However, despite that concerning growth in the number of cases and the levels of hospitalisation, we all recognise the need to do all that we can to protect the return to greater normality that we have experienced in recent weeks, and I believe we are all are committed to doing that.

In June, the Government changed its strategic intent from suppressing the virus to the lowest possible level to a broader view that recognises all possible harms, including social and economic ones. We accepted that measures such as physical distancing placed considerable burdens on our economy that could not be judged proportionate, so we removed the majority of remaining restrictions on 9 August while retaining an effective baseline of public health measures. That baseline includes test and protect, the use of face coverings in certain settings and continued emphasis on good hygiene and ventilation.

Of course, it is the extraordinary vaccination programme, in which 84 per cent of all over-18-year-olds are now fully vaccinated, that allowed us to make that move beyond level 0. I pay full credit again to the teams the length and breadth of the country who have now delivered more than 7 million Covid vaccinations since the first one was delivered, on 8 December 2020.

Just as vaccinations change the game in relation to the Covid response, the arrival of the now predominant delta variant has led to the fragile position that exists today. Vaccination has significantly reduced the link between cases and serious health harm from Covid, and the proportion of people with the virus ending up in hospital is now much lower than it was before the vaccine programme.