Chamber and committees

At the outset, I want to confirm that there will be no changes this week to the Covid levels of protection that currently apply to different parts of the country. I will say more about that later and also look ahead to the more substantive three-weekly review that I will set out to Parliament a week from today—which is, as scheduled, ahead of 28 June, when the next scheduled change and a move to level 0 for the whole country was expected to take place.

First, I will give a general summary of the current course of the pandemic, starting with today’s statistics. The total number of positive cases that were reported yesterday was 974—5 per cent of the total number of tests—which means that the overall number of confirmed cases is now 248,515. One hundred and thirty-seven people are currently in hospital, which is nine more than yesterday, and 17 people are receiving intensive care right now, which is the same as reported yesterday.

I also regret to say that two further deaths were reported yesterday, which takes the total number of deaths registered under the daily definition to 7,683. Once again, I send my condolences to everyone who has been bereaved over the course of the pandemic.

I will also provide an update on the vaccination programme. However, because of a technical issue at Public Health Scotland this morning, I ask members to note that it is likely that the figures that I am about to give underreport yesterday’s vaccination performance. On the basis of the information that I have at this stage, I can confirm that, as of 7.30 this morning, 3,531,461 people in Scotland had received their first dose of the vaccine, which is an increase of 13,793 since yesterday. In addition, 23,347 people received their second dose yesterday, which brings the total number of second doses to 2,470,181. However, I ask people to remember that it is likely that those figures underreport the number of vaccinations that were carried out yesterday. We will update the figures as quickly as possible.

As is clear from the update that I have just given on the range of statistics, case numbers continue to rise. Over the past week, 6,651 new cases have been reported, which compares with a total of 5,475 cases in the previous week, so the number of cases has risen by more than one fifth in the past week and is now more than five times higher than the number in early May. That reflects the fact that the faster-transmitting delta variant is now common across Scotland and accounts for the overwhelming majority of new cases that are being reported.

Given the risk of, for example, long Covid, it is important to point out that we should never be complacent about a rising curve of infections. However, as I have indicated previously, we hope that vaccination is increasingly protecting people against serious illness. If that is indeed the case, our experience of the virus will become different and our ability to cope with it in a less restrictive way will become much greater. That is why we continue to very closely monitor the extent to which the rise in the number of new cases is, or is not, leading to a commensurate rise in the number of people who fall seriously ill and require hospital treatment. Our early data on that point is encouraging—I will say more about that shortly—but we still need further analysis, particularly to more fully understand the impact of the delta variant.

To that end, a new study that was published yesterday by the University of Edinburgh was instructive, and I recommend that members read it. On the one hand, it suggests that the delta variant is associated with a higher risk of hospitalisation than other variants but, on the other hand, it suggests that double-dose vaccination continues to provide a high level of protection against infection with, and hospitalisation from, the virus. That was underlined by another study that was published yesterday, by Public Health England, which shows that there is extremely strong protection against hospitalisation after two doses of the vaccine.

In short, all the evidence so far suggests that, although the link has not yet been completely broken, vaccination is weakening the link between the rise in the number of new cases and a rise in hospitalisations and serious illness, so there is much for us to be optimistic about in the studies about the impact of vaccination.

As I indicated earlier, that is reflected in our hospital data, which is published daily. The number of people being admitted to hospital with Covid has fallen from about 10 per cent of reported positive cases at the start of the year to about 5 per cent now. In addition, since around the start of May, the number of new cases has increased at a much faster rate than hospital admissions.

We are also now seeing some evidence that the people who require hospital care are, on average, younger than those who required it during previous stages of the pandemic. For example, in the latest week, the highest number of new admissions was among people in their 30s and 40s. The next highest number was of people in their 20s. Before the vaccination programme started, people over the age of 50 usually made up the highest number of new admissions to hospital.

Let me stress that we should not be complacent about hospitalisation for anyone—no matter their age—but the fact that more of the recent hospital admissions are in younger age groups might mean that fewer of the people being admitted to hospital are becoming seriously ill or requiring intensive care. That might also help to explain my next point.

Hospital occupancy, which is the total number of people with Covid in hospital at any given time, is not rising at the same rate as hospital admissions or cases of Covid. Indeed, although there has been an approximate fivefold increase in the number of cases since the start of May, hospital occupancy is about just double what it was at the start of May. That suggests that people are being discharged more quickly and are spending, on average, less time in hospital than patients in the earlier phases of the pandemic. Although that is encouraging, it is important to stress that further analysis is needed to confirm it.

That brings me to the judgments that we require to make now and next week. In short, we are hopeful that vaccination is changing the game in our fight against the virus, and that it is doing so in a perhaps fundamental way. However, the emerging evidence still needs close analysis.

More fundamentally—and this may be the most fundamental point of all—we need time to get more people vaccinated with both doses. In the race between the virus and vaccines that we have often spoken about, we are increasingly confident that the vaccines will win, but we must not allow the virus to get too far ahead.

The vaccination programme is going exceptionally well and is being rolled out as quickly as supplies allow, but a significant proportion of the population is not yet fully vaccinated with two doses. To be blunt, that remains our biggest vulnerability at this stage, and it is a significant vulnerability when cases are rising at the pace that they are. Therefore, we must buy sufficient time for vaccination to get ahead and to stay ahead of the virus. That is the reason for exercising caution at this juncture.

Those issues are of course also being weighed up by the United Kingdom Government and by other Governments across the UK, and the UK Government yesterday announced a four-week delay to its plans for lifting Covid restrictions in England.

The Scottish Government will also continue to adopt a cautious approach. I have already confirmed that no changes will be made this week to the levels that apply in any part of the country. Our next full scheduled review of the protection levels will take place next week. That will consider whether any changes are possible from 28 June onwards, which is the date when we had hoped that we would see the whole country move down to level 0.

I will confirm our decision to Parliament next week, following that review. However, given the current situation, and the need to get more people fully vaccinated before we ease up further, it is reasonable to indicate now that it is unlikely that any part of the country will move down a level from 28 June. Instead, it is more likely that we will opt to maintain restrictions for a further three weeks from 28 June and will use that time to vaccinate, with both doses, as many more people as possible. Doing that will give us the best chance of getting back on track later in July and of restoring the much greater normality that we all crave.

To that end, we will also do three other things next week and I will report on all of this when I stand here to make a statement this time next week. If our decision is to retain current levels for a further three weeks—and we must go through a proper process to arrive at that decision—we will consider whether any minor changes are possible. I am aware that perceived anomalies have arisen as restrictions have eased. I understand how frustrating that can be, even though there will often be a rational explanation for what may appear to be contradictory. I assure members that, as part of our on-going review of the rules and regulations that are in place, we will consider whether any changes could or should be made to address such issues.

More fundamentally, we will publish two pieces of work next week to coincide with the outcome of the review. Those will look ahead—hopefully not too far ahead—to the restoration of a far greater degree of normality. That work will be of interest to everyone, but it will have particular interest for the businesses and sectors, including much of our arts and culture sector, that still face the greatest uncertainty about what the future looks like.

First, we will publish a paper setting out what we hope life will look like beyond level 0, as we get to the point where we can lift all, or virtually all, of the remaining restrictions. That is important because, although we have had to pause the route map, I emphasise that we still hope that vaccination will allow us to move beyond level 0 over the summer and back to a much greater degree of normality.

Secondly, related to the first publication, we will also publish the outcome of our review of physical distancing. Given the uncertainties of the current situation, in particular the greater transmissibility of the delta variant, we have taken a bit longer to consider that than we had originally planned. However, I know how important that is for many businesses, including those in hospitality and also for theatres and cinemas and the arts more generally, as they all consider how they can operate sustainably over the medium to long term.

In summary, next week we will in all probability, although it has to be confirmed after our full review, pause the further easing of restrictions while we press ahead as fast as possible with vaccination, particularly with double doses of vaccination. However, we will also look ahead in more detail to what we still hope will be possible later in the summer.

I know that the current situation is difficult and frustrating for everyone. We all want to see the back of all restrictions as soon as possible. However, although this setback is not easy and not welcome for anyone, it is worth remembering that we are living under far fewer restrictions now than we were just a few weeks ago. The current situation is not what any of us wants but, equally, it is not lockdown as experienced at earlier phases in the pandemic and vaccination is, with every day that passes, helping us quite literally change the game.

On that point, as well as doing all that we can as quickly as we can to vaccinate fully the adult population, we are making preparations for the possible vaccination of 12 to 17-year-olds should the advice that we get from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation recommend that. I can tell the chamber that we also expect advice from the JCVI in the coming weeks about whether booster vaccinations will be needed during the autumn, so plans are also under way to deliver those if necessary. The Government has an obligation—one that we take very seriously—to ensure that the vaccination programme is delivered as quickly and as fully as possible and I give an assurance that we will continue to work with health boards and others to meet that obligation. Despite the difficulties of the current situation, it is vaccination that still offers us real hope for the weeks and months ahead.

Getting people vaccinated is the responsibility, first and foremost, of the Government. However, it is also one of the ways in which we can all play a part, so I will end by highlighting again the three key things that we all need to do to help keep us on the right track overall as we emerge from the pandemic. The first of those is vaccination. Please make sure that you get vaccinated when you are invited to do so and please make sure that you attend for both doses. All the evidence tells us that that is crucial. If you need to rearrange an appointment or you think that you should have had an invitation by now and want to check up on that, you can go to the vaccinations section of the NHS Inform website. If you had your first dose of the vaccine eight weeks or more ago, check on the website to see whether you can bring your second dose appointment forward. From next week, health boards will start to reschedule routinely second doses to bring them into the eight-week cycle rather than the 12-week cycle. Getting vaccinated is in our own best interests—it makes it less likely that we will become seriously ill from Covid—but it also helps us protect one another, so when it is your turn, please get the jags.

Secondly, please get tested regularly. Free lateral flow tests are available through the NHS Inform website so that you can take a test twice a week. You can have them sent to you in the post or you can collect them from local and regional test sites. In addition, lateral flow devices can now be collected from community pharmacies. If you have not ordered the tests yet, I strongly encourage you to do so. The more of us who take tests regularly, the more cases we will find and the more we can break chains of transmission. Of course, if you test positive, please make sure that you self-isolate and get the result confirmed through a PCR test—that is important.

If your children are asked to self-isolate by their school, please ensure that they do that. That means staying at home, not just away from school. I know that it is hugely frustrating when that happens, but I assure parents that, as part of our wider work, we are considering whether and to what extent the requirement for young people to isolate can be significantly reduced in future, particularly as we look ahead to a new school term. However, for now, to anyone who is currently helping a child to self-isolate, I say thank you. I know that it is frustrating and hugely disruptive, but it is also an important way at this stage to help keep schools as safe as possible and keep as many of them as possible open as we head towards the summer holidays.

Finally, I ask everybody to continue to stick to the rules where you live and follow the public health advice—that is still important. The virus is still out there and, for all the success of the vaccination programme, it is still resulting in hospitalisation for some people and, of course, long Covid is still a risk. Please meet outdoors as much as possible. No environment is ever entirely risk free, but we know that meeting people outdoors poses much less risk than meeting indoors. If you are meeting people indoors, please stick to the limits and make sure that the room is as well ventilated as possible. Obviously, that includes meeting indoors to watch the football over the next few weeks. Please also continue to follow advice on physical distancing, hand washing and face coverings.

We continue to ask everybody to get tested, to get vaccinated when asked to do so and to follow the public health guidance. If we all do that—it is not easy; it is tiresome for everybody—we will help to get things back under control, while the vaccination programme continues to do its work. That will help us to keep ourselves and each other safe. I really hope that, notwithstanding the current frustrations, that will allow us to move to much greater normality with far fewer restrictions as we go further into summer.

I ask members and, indeed, those watching, to pay attention to what I have said. I think that the situation that we are in is frustrating and difficult enough for people without—inadvertently, I am sure—words being put into my mouth that I did not use. At no point today did I say—this is relevant to Douglas Ross’s question about September, too—that I thought that restrictions would be in place for a period of further months. I did not say that.

I have tried all along not to commit to firm dates, way into the future, that nobody can be certain can be delivered. Earlier this year, I was criticised for not saying that 21 June would be “freedom day”, but I did not think that it was responsible to do that. I am not going to give false guarantees. Equally, it is important not to suggest that I have said something that I have not.

Today, I have said that we are not lifting any restrictions this week and that it is likely that—though we have to go through the proper process of arriving at this decision—next week, we will pause further easing for a further three-week period, to allow more people to be vaccinated. I hope that that greater vaccination will allow us to lift restrictions and not just get to level 0, but get beyond level 0 later this summer.

Can I stand here and give a 100 per cent guarantee of that? No, because this virus is unpredictable and, at times, behaves in unpredictable ways. However, that is what we are working towards, and we know that vaccination is the best route for getting there. It is important to understand that these situations are difficult enough without any of us trying to suggest that I have said something that I have not said.

On vaccination, we have set the target of offering everybody in the adult population a first dose by the end of July. In fact, by the end of next week, everybody in the adult population will have been offered their appointment for a first dose; many 18 to 29-year-olds will already be getting those appointments by text and email, with letters to the remainder going out next week. In other words, by the end of next week, appointments will have been scheduled for the entire adult population who have not already had their first dose. Of course, we are now seeking to give second doses within eight weeks of the first dose, and people can work out from that the outer limit with regard to seeking to get the adult population vaccinated with a second dose. Obviously, all of this is subject to getting sufficient supplies, which remains our biggest constraint, but we are doing this as quickly as supplies allow.

With regard to weddings, I have said that we will look next week at whether we can make any changes, albeit we might have to stay at the same levels. I absolutely understand the heartbreak of people wanting to get married who have planned and then might have to reschedule their weddings, so we will look at what flexibility we can give within the clinical advice. I will say as much as possible about that next week.

As for NHS care remobilisation in general and cancer in particular, the health secretary will set out the remobilisation of the health plan, as we have committed to do in the first 100 days of our Administration. Of course, many cancer procedures were kept going during the pandemic, given their urgency, but we know that some people will not have come forward with concerns about symptoms and we need to get that back on track.

Finally, I would simply highlight a reason for being cautious right now. When, earlier in the pandemic, we talked about not overwhelming the NHS, we assumed at that time that almost the entire capacity of the health service would be available for dealing with Covid-19. We do not want to get anywhere near that now, because we want our NHS to get on with non-Covid treatments, to catch up with the backlogs and to get treatment back to normal. That factor will be really important as we take the decisions that we will face over the next couple of weeks.

The local public health teams in Dundee will be deciding on the appropriate response in exactly the way that the local public health teams in Glasgow did. Those teams have the Scottish Government’s support in relation to assistance or resource that they need to implement their response.

Although people can already go on to the NHS Inform website to bring forward their second-dose appointment, from next week—as I said in my statement—as part of our efforts to speed up second-dose vaccinations, all health boards will routinely bring forward appointments that are on a 12-week cycle so that they meet the eight-week cycle.

Local health boards will use surge testing and walk-in clinics as they think appropriate. I am sure that, as local health teams in Glasgow did so effectively a few weeks ago, the local health teams in Tayside will keep local members updated, and will be happy to answer more detailed questions from them.

On essential travel, I think that people are told that it can take up to 21 days to get a certificate, so they should make sure that they apply in good time. I am not aware of any delays beyond that, but I am happy to look into that. As I said earlier, we are encouraging people not to travel overseas unless that is essential. However, in cases in which that is essential, they have the ability to do that. Only a relatively small number of countries are still asking for proof of vaccination. We are continuing to work with and to have dialogue with other UK nations on the further development of solutions to that issue.

I apologise that I did not quite pick up the last part of Rachael Hamilton’s question, probably because I was conferring with the Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care. I think that it was to do with the technology that is in place and how we are developing that. I will check the record and get back to her as quickly as possible.

This has not been an easy message—it has been particularly difficult for the travel industry, which has rightly raised questions—but I have made it clear all along and I will continue to say that, right now, people should not travel overseas for non-essential reasons, because the biggest risk that we face is the importation of new variants. We are living with a new variant, which is what is making things so difficult right now. In the past—I will not go into more detail now—I have spoken about my intense frustration at the lack of more robust controls around the UK border more generally. If I can be very blunt, I think that we are paying a price for that right now.

We need to continue to be careful and cautious. That is tough. International travel is likely to be one of the last things to go back completely to normal. I know that, for many people, going overseas is about family reunion, which many people will see as essential, but if we continue to be cautious about and to limit international travel for non-essential reasons, we will give ourselves the best chance of avoiding new variants and getting the current situation back under control.

I absolutely recognise how important the issue is and I really feel for parents who are not able to mark in the normal way the transitions in young people’s lives. Nobody is underplaying the significance of that in any way, shape or form.

As people would expect, I have been looking at the issue particularly closely over the past week. As I said earlier, I have asked the advisory sub-group on education and children’s issues about the matter, and its advice is that we should still restrict gatherings of that nature. Although it is not the only reason, one reason for that is overall protection of educational establishments in order to try to minimise the potential for whole nurseries or early years establishments having to close.

We look at those things on an on-going basis. I know that it will not be of comfort to everybody, but it is important to say that nursery graduations have not been cancelled. I know that many nurseries are looking at different ways of doing them. In the past two days, I have heard of nurseries filming ceremonies and allowing parents to watch online—which is a poor substitute, I know. Others are taking photographs of the children that are provided to their parents, and some are arranging staggered pick-up times, so that individual parents can see their child get a graduation certificate and take photographs themselves.

A lot of thought and care is being given to the situation. I wish that we could just take away all the restrictions, but I have to be mindful of the advice that is coming from experts and the reasons for it.

We will continue to do all that we can to ensure that that is the case. We liaise regularly with the quarantine hotels in Scotland to ensure that individuals’ dietary needs are met wherever that is reasonably practical. People are asked to notify of any allergies or dietary requirements in advance. The managed quarantine service contract overall is managed by the United Kingdom Government, but we will continue to liaise, as I said, to ensure that all such issues are taken account of.

We have consistently made the case—along with others, it is fair to say—that the furlough scheme should remain in place for as long as it is needed. We have also asked the UK Government to review the rules that will require contributions to the cost of the scheme from July and which currently exclude people who have started a new job since 2 March from being furloughed. What further assistance will be in place to support jobs and necessary labour market transitions in sectors that are most deeply affected by Covid must also be clear to businesses and workers well in advance of the scheme ending.

Given the Prime Minister’s announcement yesterday and the situation that all of us across the UK are dealing with, the case for the need to extend furlough further is really strong, and is getting stronger all the time.

In levels 0 and 1, we ask people who are at the highest level of clinical risk to follow the same advice that we ask the rest of the population to follow—which is, of course, to continue to take care. There is extra advice for people who live at the higher levels of protection, which we continue to review on the basis of up-to-date evidence. We have also prioritised for vaccination adult household members who are on the shielding list, and we have encouraged them to take up the offer of free test devices, for extra reassurance.

Almost 92 per cent of people on the shielding list have now had both doses of the vaccine. I hope that the protection that that offers will, over time, make people feel less anxious about returning to some form of normality. I am acutely aware of the impact that shielding has had on people’s mental health and wellbeing, and we do not intend to ask people to shield in the same highly restrictive way that we saw in March 2020.

I will ease restrictions as quickly as I think is safe and responsible. Nobody has any interest in keeping any restriction in place for any longer than is necessary.

On adults with severe learning disabilities, and vulnerable adults more generally, the guidance that is in place has been in place for some time. It allows local authorities or local partners to open up services as and when they consider it safe to do so. There has been communication between the Government and local partners to encourage opening up of services, so I will ask the relevant minister to write to Willie Rennie with a full update on the work that has been done on getting them back to normal as quickly as possible.

We will also be offering vaccinations to international students who come here this year, which is an important additional protection. Of course, we are working, and will continue to work, with universities and colleges to make sure that the right overall guidance is in place as quickly as possible, to ensure that there is as much protection as we can provide for what will—as we know from our experience last year—be a risk, as we go into the autumn.

We will keep the Parliament updated on all those things, as they develop.